We’ve hit June and the small-sample alarm is no longer sounding — we’ve played about 38% of the season. Fast starts have more meaning now; they could mean strong seasons. Many players we drafted late or added off the fantasy baseball waiver wire have earned solidified roles on our rosters.
Today’s assignment was to locate some surprising hitters and try to determine just how real their fast starts are. Settle in and let’s see what we can figure out.
Miguel Vargas, White Sox (March ADP: 269th, 13th in banked 5×5 value)
It’s important to remember that Vargas was once a rated prospect. He was on everyone’s clipboard in 2022 and made the Futures Game. His highest prospect rank came in 2023, when Baseball America listed him at No. 30. Player development is not always linear.
The White Sox are getting a lovely breakout from Vargas this year. His bat speed has improved, his hard-hit metrics are good, his plate-discipline stats are very good. Swinging at strikes and spitting on balls is the quickest path to success in this game. He’s also learned the craft of stealing bases, now 15-for-15 over the past two seasons. And heck, he hasn’t even been lucky — his .242 average and .502 slugging lag behind his .262 expected average and .535 expected slugging. Vargas is set up to be one of the strongest right answers of 2026 fantasy baseball.
Brandon Marsh, Phillies (Preseason rank: 333rd, 57th in banked 5×5 value)
Marsh has been a plus-offensive player for most of his career, in his fifth straight season with a favorable OPS+. But the timing has been right for a career year at age 28, as he’s hit new highs for all the slash categories (.335/.365/.482). We like seeing his strikeout rate moving down, but it’s also telling that his walk rate has fallen significantly, too. A dip in walks isn’t always a bad thing — sometimes it’s a matter of not letting so many hittable strikes pass the zone.
A league-best batting average often comes with favorable outcome luck, and Marsh does have a .412 BABIP. And while that’s surely unsustainable, his career BABIP is a robust .376. He does not deserve to be graded against the league baseline.
The expected stats tell a story I can get behind — a .303 expected average, a .455 expected slugging. We’d like to see a little more category juice, but a 15-15 season is within reach. The Phillies have started to accept Marsh as one of their prioritized hitters, shifting him to the cleanup spot. I’ve bumped Marsh up to the 150 spot for the rest of the season.
Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (Preseason rank: 440th, 84th in banked 5×5 value)
This is one story no one saw coming, because Rocchio had the bat knocked out of his hands in his first two full seasons. But this year he’s improved his contact rate to an elite level, and he’s also been more decisive swinging at strikes. The hard-hit metrics are all on the left side, the low side. But we’ve seen Cleveland hitters make this sort of profile work in the past — think of the best Steven Kwan seasons (just don’t look at Kwan’s 2026 numbers).
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Rocchio should hit for a favorable average the rest of the way and challenge for 30 steals, and he can probably get to 10 or more homers. The Guardians keep him parked in the ninth spot in the order for now, which hurts the run production, but perhaps that’s not cast in stone either. I’ve pushed Rocchio up to 252nd on the freshest rest-of-season rankings.
Jake Bauers, Brewers (Preseason rank: 227th, 57th in banked 5×5 value)
When in doubt, I like to copy what the Brewers are doing. They’ve managed to become yearly contenders despite a payroll deficit — it does help playing in the NL Central, where only the Cubs are big spenders — and they’ve become skilled at identifying under-appreciated talent on opposing rosters (Kyle Harrison 👋🏻).
Bauers wasn’t expected to be a regular this year, but life is what happens to you while you’re making other plans. Injuries gave Bauers a chance and he’s run with it: .270/.351/.486, 10 homers, even a surprising four steals. His platoon stats show a bias but he’s not completely lost against lefties (.250/.294/.438). Bauers has earned the right to keep playing time even with others now healthy.
I had Andrew Vaughn as a breakout pick this year and Bauers has stepped into that spot. Now they’re both healthy, with Bauers playing most of the time and Vaughn playing some of the time (and sometimes they’re both in the lineup). Bauers gets the fantasy nod forward because he’s a left-handed hitter and he qualifies at multiple positions. Bauers is on the cusp of entering the top 200 moving forward; at minimum, he needs to be rostered in every competitive league.
Ildemaro Vargas, D-backs (Undrafted preseason, 88th in banked 5×5 value)
When we say undrafted with this Vargas, we mean completely undrafted. I looked at ADP sources from March and couldn’t find him listed in the top-1000 players. If you found this guy on your April 1 roster, it was likely a misclick. We’re talking about a 34-year-old journeyman who has a career 83 OPS+, a below-average hitter without a job.
Alas, the Diamondbacks didn’t have a real plan at first base — 40-year-old Carlos Santana doesn’t count — so Vargas quickly settled in there. He’s also capable of playing second base. He was one of April’s best stories, a .378/.398/.689 slash and six home runs from a player most people knew nothing about.
Unfortunately, sometimes these guys turn into pumpkins around midnight. Vargas has scuffled to a .190/.221/.241 slash over his past 30 games, with just one home run. Batting slot has protected his run production (16 RBI, 11 runs scored), but he’s started to slide down the order, too. Given that this is an older player with no track record of success, it’s reasonable to cut the cord now. Although he’s capable of hitting any pitch, good and bad, pitchers have started to exploit his horrible chase rate and his minuscule walk rate. And his average is mostly about the regular contact; he’s not hitting the ball especially hard, either.
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