Fantasy Baseball Hitter Waiver Wire: Using advanced stats to take advantage of plus matchups

The bottom 10 teams in adjusted scores show some of the worst pitching staffs, with the Angels, Cardinals and Athletics posting a single-digit K-BB%. Interestingly, however, the Cardinals and Athletics have been stranding runners at a high rate in 2026. Meanwhile, the White Sox have been limiting balls in play, like the Marlins and Diamondbacks, among the teams in the bottom 10 in adjusted scores.

The Astros have been hit hard from an injury standpoint, so they have some of the more drastic declines in strikeout skills (K-BB%) and WHIP. If we weighted the 2026 data more, the Astros would be closer to the bottom half of the league from a pitching perspective. The Phillies continue to have above-average skills, yet the .334 BABIP ranks last among the team pitchers in 2026. Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Andrew Painter have BABIPs above .300 among pitchers with 20 innings, so the expected metrics suggest some luck in their favor.

Seven-Game Slates in Week 10

• Cubs (4 at PIT, 3 at STL)

  • The Cubs project to face six right-handed starting pitchers in Week 10, with Matthew Liberatore as the only lefty on the slate. Watch Michael Conforto in deep leagues as a strong-side platoon option at DH.

• White Sox (4 vs. MIN, 3 vs. DET)

  • The White Sox face five right-handed starting pitchers in Week 10. That should benefit Andrew Benintendi and Jarred Kelenic. However, Benintendi played against both lefties and Kelenic started against one of the two left-handed starting pitchers they faced since May 1.

• Astros (4 at TEX, 3 vs. MIL)

  • The Astros will face four right-handed starting pitchers in the first half of Week 10, with one left-handed starter against Milwaukee. Zach Cole and Braden Shewmake should benefit from the potential volume.

• Twins (4 at CWS, 3 at PIT)

  • The Twins will face right-handed starting pitchers in six of seven games. Trevor Larnach should benefit as a strong option in points or OBP formats.

• Pirates (4 vs. CHC, 3 vs. MIN)

  • Pittsburgh projects to face seven right-handed starters in Week 10. Spencer Horwitz hasn’t started against a lefty since April 1. Horwitz will benefit from the righty-heavy slate.

• Rangers (4 vs. HOU, 3 vs. KC)

  • The Rangers will face six out of seven right-handed starting pitchers. Cole Ragans is the lone lefty on the projected starters grid. Ragans has been on the injured list since May 7 with an elbow impingement, with rehab outings over the weekend. Joc Pederson has been hitting leadoff in several games recently against right-handed starting pitchers, but that’s only a deep-league recommendation to stream.

• Blue Jays (4 vs. MIA, 3 at BAL)

  • Trevor Rogers is the only left-handed starting pitcher who projects to face the Blue Jays. That should bode well for Yohendrick Piñango and Jesús Sánchez (more on them later). The Marlins’ and Orioles’ pitching staff ranks in the bottom 10 of the adjusted scores, signaling it could be a fantasy-friendly week for Blue Jays’ hitters in general.

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Shallow-League Waiver Wire Pickups (Under 50% Rostered)

Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks (36% Rostered)

If you’re like me, you’ve probably written off Nolan Arenado. His contact rate (78.4%) in 2026 is the lowest since 2018. For context, Arenado’s contact rate in 2026 has been three points below his career average. He uses a pull-heavy (46.2%), flyball (42.4%) approach, further evident by his 27.1% pulled air rate in 2026. There haven’t been massive skill changes, other than Arenado’s power returning to average instead of below average in the previous two seasons. After Arenado had a 2.5% barrel rate per plate appearance in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, it bounced back to 4.9% in 2026.

But maybe we overlooked the park shift to Arizona, which ranks 10th in Home Run Park Factors in 2026 and ninth for right-handed hitters across a rolling three-year average. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ home park ranks 28th in Home Run Park Factors to right-handed hitters.

Playing at San Francisco and Seattle in Week 10 might not be favorable from a park factor standpoint, but Arenado’s barrel rate bounced back, making him a steady waiver wire target if you need help at third base.

Travis Bazzana, Guardians (43% Rostered)

The 2024 first overall pick, who trained at Driveline Baseball, has been rolling over the past two weeks. From May 10 and beyond, Travis Bazzana has two home runs, a .365 batting average and a .421 OBP. Bazzana’s .436 BABIP has been fueling his batting and production.

We used that arbitrary cutoff because Bazzana stole all seven bases in his early career before May 10, including two games with two steals. Stolen bases can come in bunches. Bazzana rocks a 27% stolen base opportunity rate and converts 77% of his steals.

We’ve seen near-elite plate discipline for Bazzana, given his 79.9% contact rate, 20.5% chase rate and 8.5% swinging-strike rate. That suggests Bazzana can provide value in multiple formats, including leagues with batting average, OBP and points. Bazzana’s power isn’t quite there yet, but it can develop as he elevates the ball toward his pull side.

Pick up and stream Bazzana for batting average and OBP with the potential for steals, especially since the Guardians project to face softer matchups against the Nationals and Red Sox in Week 10.

Casey Schmitt, Giants (44% Rostered)

The Giants face the Diamondbacks in San Francisco and the Rockies in Colorado for three games each. Both teams have been in the bottom 10 in adjusted pitching scores, meaning we should attack those by streaming hitters against Arizona and Colorado. Schmitt has been a productive compiler in 2026, projected to surpass his career totals. That might say more about the Giants’ lineup, leading to plenty of opportunities to be productive for Schmitt.

Schmitt has been making more contact (79.6%) in 2026, up from 75.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, Schmitt’s swinging-strike rate has fallen to a career low (10.2%), aligning with a lower strikeout rate and higher BABIP (.315). That indicates Schmitt has been putting more balls into play, supporting the uptick in Schmitt’s batting average.

Besides more contact for Schmitt, he has been hitting the ball harder into optimal launch angles, given his 10.7% barrel rate per plate appearance in 2026. For context, Schmitt’s barrel rate has improved by over four percentage points compared to his career norm. That’s a positive combination for a potential breakout hitter.

Add Schmitt and stream him in Week 10 because of his improved skills and matchups.

Deep-League Waiver Wire Pickups (Under 10% Rostered)

Spencer Horwitz, Pirates (4% Rostered)

Since the Pirates project to face seven right-handed starting pitchers in Week 10, Spencer Horwitz should be a major beneficiary. Horwitz has historically been an asset in OBP and points leagues, with a career 11.4% walk rate and .359 OBP. He has been making more contact, evidenced by an 86.6% contact rate and a career-low 5.3% swinging-strike rate in 2026. There isn’t much power in Horwitz’s bat, with a career-low 2.9% barrel rate per appearance, though his calling card remains the plate discipline.

Horwitz should be a sneaky deep-league option to stream for batting average and OBP.

Jacob Young, Nationals (2% Rostered)

After being a stolen base asset, Jacob Young has a career-high in home runs (6) in 2026. That has been supported by Young elevating the ball (39.7% flyball) and pulling them slightly more often (35.3%). Young had 11 barrels in 2024 and 2025, with eight in 2026, leading to his 3.9% barrel rate per plate appearance. He posted a barrel rate under 2% in the previous two seasons. That’s still average power at best for Young, yet it’s a notable improvement.

Interestingly, Young’s stolen base chances have fallen to 11% in 2026, down from 31% throughout his career. He converted 76% of his steals in 2024, dipping to 57% in 2025. There’s a chance the Nationals have concerns about his elite speed (95th-percentile Sprint Speed), translating into steals. Young has been a strong defender (99th-percentile Outs Above Average) with good speed, so it’s logical to expect him to run more often in the future.

Since most Yahoo leagues have three outfield spots, it makes sense for Young’s roster percentage to be lower. Young has some favorable matchups against the Guardians and the Padres this week, though it’s mostly juicy versus the Padres (Lucas Giolito, Michael King and Griffin Canning). Batting average can be a challenge for Young’s profile, but there has been an intentional change to tap into more power.

Young can be a deep-league source of power and speed.

Jake McCarthy, Rockies (7% Rostered)

Jake McCarthy was being deployed as a strong-side platoon option for the Rockies earlier in the season. However, McCarthy started against five of eight left-handed starting pitchers since May 1. In perfect Rockies’ style, McCarthy had been batting toward the bottom third of the lineup, with an occasional opportunity at the leadoff spot. McCarthy has hit leadoff in four of the past five games.

After a down season in 2025, McCarthy has been showing more of what we expected, with strong batting averages (.277) and OBP (.323) in 2026. McCarthy’s plate discipline has looked similar to his career averages, given his 82% contact rate and 31.3% chase rate.

Since he lacks power, we yearn for his stolen bases, which have returned in 2026. After McCarthy’s stolen base opportunity rate fell to 16% in 2025, it has skyrocketed to 37% in 2026, significantly higher than his career average (28%). That means McCarthy has been running more often again in 2026.

Target McCarthy for batting average, OBP and steals in Week 10 with three games against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and three in Colorado against the Giants.

Yohendrick Piñango (1% Rostered) / Jesús Sánchez (4% Rostered), Blue Jays

With the Blue Jays projected to face six right-handed starting pitchers, Piñango and Sánchez will be deep-league waiver pickups as strong-side platoon options. Sánchez’s barrel rate (5.6%) has fallen in 2026 after having a career 7.3% barrel rate, but he typically has been a source of power. Interestingly, Sánchez’s 73.3 mph bat speed had fallen from 75.9 mph in 2025, but that’s still an above-average bat speed.

Meanwhile, Piñango teased us with near-elite bat speed (75.5 mph) and a 52.2% fast swing rate (percentage of swings at 75 mph or faster). There’s raw power in Piñango’s profile, though it hasn’t translated into barrels (4.4%) and home runs (1). Week 10 could be the week for some home runs from Piñango and Sánchez, making them fantasy viable in deeper formats.