With the 2025 MLB regular season behind us, it’s time to review what we learned from a fantasy perspective and how we can apply it to next year.
In the coming days throughout October, we’ll be breaking down the standout seasons, the breakout candidates, the prospects to know, and our early 2026 rankings. We started with catcher last week, and now we’ll head over to first base.
2025 POSITION BREAKDOWN: FIRST BASE
️ STATE OF THE POSITION
There were 17 first basemen who earned at least $10 of value this season, according to Fangraph’s Player Rater. That was the most for any infield position, which hints at the depth we have at the first base position. Some of that is the old stalwarts like Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero, Pete Alonso, and Yandy Diaz. However, we also had young players like Nick Kurtz, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Busch, and Tyler Soderstrom emerge as consistent producers this season. Whenyou add to that, players like Rafael Devers and Willson Contreras gaining first base eligibility, this is probably the deepest the position has ever been, and we haven’t yet talked about Christian Walker, who is coming off of a down year, Spencer Torkelson, who made the most of his second chance, and Ben Rice, who may actually get a chance to be the every day first baseman next year if the Yankees move on from Paul Goldschmidt.
As it stands, all is well with the first base landscape, and while it’s tempting to try and lock in one of the elite bats at the position, this might be the best position to wait on in drafts and still find value with a middle-round starter.
2025’s Top Ten First Basemen
1. Pete Alonso (Free Agent)
.272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 87 R, 126 RBI, 1 SB
The Polar Bear had his best season yet after signing a two-year deal to return to the Mets, and played so well that he will almost certainly opt out of the final year of his contract and test the free agent waters again. Alonso set career highs in batting average, plate appearances, and barrel rate while posting his sixth straight full season with at least 34 home runs. In non-COVID seasons, Alonso averages 41.3 home runs per game, which is tremendous consistency and value from a power standpoint. The big reason why his fantasy value jumped this year, in addition to hitting behind Juan Soto and driving in 126 runs, was that Alonso went to a more all-fields approach and trusted his power to play regardless. He had the lowest pull rate of his career and the lowest fly ball rate of his career, instead focusing on hard line drives. He was also more aggressive in the zone than he had been since 2022, which allowed him to improve his quality of contact overall despite swinging and missing a bit more. Oh, and he also set the Mets franchise record for home runs. Not a bad season.
2. Josh Naylor (Free Agent)
.295.353/.462, 20 HR, 81 R, 92 RBI, 30 SB
What a wild season for Josh Naylor. We kinda knew his 31 home run season in 2024 was a bit of a fluke, but he found new ways to produce fantasy value by improving his batting average and shattering his career-high in stolen bases. Without making a drastic change in approach, Naylor saw a huge increase in his batting average, which sounded a few alarm bells. He was a bit more aggressive outside of the zone, but his contact rate was identical to last year. He did see more pitches in the zone, so perhaps being in a deeper lineup helped him, but his pull rates and fly ball rates were all pretty similar to 2024, while he also posted his lowest full-season barrel rate since his rookie year. It’s hard to see Naylor keeping up this .290-plus batting average, and his previous career-high in steals was 10, so stealing 19 bases in just 54 games with the Mariners is doing a lot of heavy lifting with his fantasy value this year. He seems like a clear regression candidate, but we’ll have to see where he signs.
3. Cody Bellinger (Yankees)
.272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 89 R, 98 RBI, 13 SB
Sadly, Bellinger will not be first base eligible in 2026 because he only played seven games there for the Yankees this season. However, the park was as good for him as everybody expected. Bellinger’s barrel rate was only 7.5% and his 38% hard hit rate was the highest he’s had since 2022, but still below most first basemen. Still, he increased his pull rate by 3% and his flyball rate by 2% and that helped lead to 29 home runs. He also made some adjustments to the pitches he was swinging at on the fringes of the strike zone, cutting his chase rate marginally but increasing his contact outside of the zone by a significant amount. That led to a solid batting average and the lowest strikeout rate of his career. All of this feels repeatable for Bellinger, but he’ll just be doing it as an OF-only fantasy player.
4. Nick Kurtz (Athletics)
.290/.383/.619 36 HR, 90 R, 86 RBI, 2 SB
Kurtz was the fourth overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and had played just 12 minor league games before the Athletics sent him to Triple-A to begin the 2025 season. It seemed like an incredibly aggressive promotion, but Kurtz responded by crushing Triple-A pitching for 20 games and forcing his way into a promotion. He didn’t adjust to MLB pitching that quickly. Up until June 1st, he was hitting .245/.315/.447 with five home runs and a 33.3% strikeout rate in 28 games. It wasn’t a terrible start, but it certainly didn’t indicate that he would catch fire as quickly as he did. From June 1st on, Kurtz hit .304/.403/.669 with 31 home runs and 71 RBI in 89 games. Yes, he did still strike out 30% of the time, but that’s always going to be a little bit a part of his game. He’s still just 22 years old and will play another season in hitter-friendly Sacramento with a young and improving lineup around him. It’s hard not to get excited about his future.
5. Rafael Devers (Giants)
.252/.372/.479 35 HR, 99 R, 109 RBI, 1 SB
Yes, after all that drama, Devers is now first base eligible. The veteran took issue with the way the Red Sox handled signing Alex Bregman this offseason and then had no desire to patch things up with the front office, so he was shipped out of town mid-season to San Francisco where he slowly worked himself into a role as the team’s first baseman. That’s a role he figures to occupy for much of the 2026 season, but the bigger question is what impact Oracle Park will have on him. Devers was somebody who went to the opposite field often in Boston, using the Green Monster to his advantage, so he struggled initially when he had to change his approach in San Francisco. Overall, Devers hit .236/.347/.460 with 20 home runs in 90 games with the Giants, striking out 29.4% of the time and pulling the ball 45% of the time, which is 8% higher than his career average. He did make tons of hard contact, but there are some questions about whether or not the 29-year-old can shift his approach so drastically and maintain his .276 career batting average while playing in San Francisco.
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays): .292, 23 HR, 96 R, 84 RBI, 6 SB
7. Matt Olson (Braves): .272, 29 HR, 98 R, 95 RBI, 1 SB
8. Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): .295, 24 HR, 81 R, 90 RBI, 6 SB
9. Yandy Diaz (Rays): .300, 25 HR, 79 R, 83 RBI, 3 SB
10. Vinnie Pasquantino (Royals): .264, 32 HR, 72 R, 113 RBI, 1 SB
2026 Breakouts
Ben Rice (Yankees)
Matthew Pouliot covered Rice in his catcher’s article, so check that out here. I will just add that, from June 1st on, Ben Rice had the third-best Process+ score in all of baseball, behind only Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. That’s certainly the company you want, and the Yankees need to just give this kid at-bats.
Andrew Vaughn (Brewers)
I don’t know if the Brewers are going to let Vaughn be their starting first baseman in 2026, but they should. In 64 games with Milwaukee, he hit .308/.375/.493 with nine home runs, 46 RBI, and a 14.6% strikeout rate. He had an 11.1% barrel rate and 91.7 mph average exit velocity over that span, but also put up a Process+ score of 126, when 100 is league average. From July 7th on, when Vaughn was called up by the Brewers, his Process+ score was in line with Roman Anthony, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Stowers, and Julio Rodriguez. So we have the results and we have the metrics to suggest that his approach and process support the results. I’m excited to see what a full season can bring.
Kyle Manzardo (Guardians)
With Carlos Santana out of town, Kyle Manzardo should head into the 2026 season as the everyday first baseman in Cleveland. The 25-year-old dealt with some off-season hardship this season, with his mother undergoing major surgery in the middle of the year, which also led to him missing a few games. Baseball players are human too, so that undoubtedly weighed on his mind, but Manzardo seemed to turn a corner on the field in the second half of the season. He hit .256/.338/.473 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI in 60 games to end the season. That’s in line with the player we think Manzardo can be. He’s just 25 years old and has an MLB career barrel rate of 11.2%, so there is plenty of quality contact being made. In a full season, could he hit .260 with 25+ home runs while batting in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup? That could bring lots of fantasy value.
Troy Johnston (Marlins)
Johnston is a 28-year-old who just made his MLB debut this season, so think of this as a late-career breakout. Still, he hit .277/.331/.420 in 28 games with the Marlins with four home runs, a 9.3% barrel rate, and a 21% strikeout rate. He also stole 31 bases in 84 games at Triple-A this season and has another 24-steal campaign on his resume from back in 2023. So we have a guy with solid 15 home run power who can also steal 20 bases and hit .281 in his career in the minor leagues. Johnston also posted a solid 114 Process+ score during his time in the big leagues, which was the same as Kerry Carpenter, Bo Bichette, Ian Happ, and Vinnie Pasquantino. That means the swing decisions and contact metrics also support the results we got. Johnston is going to be 1B/OF eligible next season, and getting late shares of him seems like a solid plan.
2026 Prospects To Know
Bryce Eldridge (Giants)
Bryce Eldridge was called up by the Giants at the end of the season and struggled in his 37 MLB plate appearances; however, he showed legit power in the minors with 25 home runs in 102 games. He did have a 14.6% swinging strike rate in the minors, so swing-and-miss will always be part of his game, but the quality of contact is elite, and he posted a 95.6 mph average exit velocity in his very brief MLB sample size, but also a 95.7 mph average exit velocity in his 66 games at Triple-A. I expect Eldridge and Rafael Devers to split 1B/DH reps in San Francisco next season, and Eldridge could prove to be a great source of power.
Charlie Condon (Rockies)
We say the Rockies hate to promote their prospects, but the Rockies are also finally going to hire a general manager from outside of their organization this offseason, so maybe that all changes. Condon is the 61st-ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, but is 14th on Keith Law’s list. He struggled a bit in 55 games at Double-A this season, but he has impressive tools that helped make him the 3rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. He showed great contact ability in college and flashed that same ability at High-A to start the season. I expect Condon to begin 2026 at Double-A, but a hot start to the season will move him to Triple-A, at least. The Rockies have nobody really blocking him at first base, so if Condon were to get hot, they could give him a shot at big league at-bats, where his power would be tantalizing in Coors Field.
Abimelec Ortiz (Rangers)
A little bit off the radar here, but Ortiz had a great season in 2025, hitting .257/.356/.479 with 25 home runs and 89 RBU in 130 games. Oddly enough, his batting average was actually much better in his 41 games at Triple-A, hitting .283/.388/.565. The 22-year-old is only 5’10” but 230 pounds and swings the hell out of the bat. He has elite bat speed and began to make more contact as he quieted his approach. He’s an average defender at first base, so he’s not a DH-only, but Texas was playing Rowdy Tellez at the end of the season because Jake Burger couldn’t stay healthy. With a DH spot likely opening and Joc Pederson leaving, the Rangers could keep Burger as the primary DH and give Ortiz a chance to claim reps at 1B, or the two could switch off. The upper levels of the Rangers’ farm system are not deep with first base options, so if they don’t make a big splash in free agency, expect Ortiz to be in the mix.
2026 Top 12 First Baseman
1. Nick Kurtz: Given his home park and the growth we saw. He has the highest upside of this group.
2. Pete Alonso: A lot is going to depend on where he ends up, but I believe in the approach shift and the consistency.
3. Matt Olson: This Braves offense is going to be better in 2026, and Olson has continued to produce.
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: An elite hitter, but I think we can expect him to hit around 25 home runs, which limits his ceiling a bit at a position where you need power.
5. Freddie Freeman: Will age ever catch up with him? The team context is great, and the results have been there.
6. Rafael Devers: He’s been one of the best, but what will the new park do to his batting average and power upside?
7. Bryce Harper: Are we seeing a moderate decline? Will be 33, and his batting average has fallen each of the last three years.
8. Vinnie Pasquantino: We finally saw some power come with the batting average. I’m buying into it being repeatable.
9. Josh Naylor: Where he signs will be huge. So much of his value came from those late steals. Will they return?
10. Michael Busch: Put together a great season in Chicago, and has gotten his strikeout rate under control. Power is very real.
11. Tyler Soderstrom: A bit of a rollercoaster, but the results were there. Power is great, and the home ballpark is tremendous.
12. Willson Contreras: Aging but safe. He’s probably a 20 HR bat with a .260 average on a decent team, but you know you’re getting his consistency.
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