We’ve gotten to a point in the Phillies’ recent playoff history where we can rank the crushing losses they have experienced at home over the last three Octobers.
Here’s my ranking from least-to-most devastating:
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Game 2 NLDS vs. Dodgers (The Wheel Play Game)
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Game 1 NLDS vs. Dodgers (The Teoscar Hernandez Homer Game)
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Game 1 NLDS vs. Mets (The 8th Inning Meltdown Game)
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Game 7 NLCS vs. Diamondbacks (The Choke Game)
From the start of the 2022 playoffs through Game 2 of the 2023 NLCS, the Phillies’ homefield advantage at Citizens Bank Park was one of baseball’s biggest storylines. They went 12-2 in their first 14 games during that stretch, with their only losses coming in Games 4 and 5 of the World Series against the Astros.
Of course, those were two crushing defeats, the first a combined no-hitter against them and the second a killer loss that sent them to Houston down 3-2 in the series.
Still, raucous crowds intimidated opponents, particularly the Atlanta Braves, who referred to playing October baseball in Philadelphia as a “hell.”
Unfortunately, CBP has been the Phils’ version of “hell” in recent postseasons, and during the regular season this year, it hasn’t provided much of a bump.
The Phillies are 1-5 in their last six home playoff games dating back to Game 6 of the 2023 NLCS against Arizona. And following Thursday’s frustrating 2-1 loss to the Astros, they fell to 41-34 at home, a .547 winning percentage. The Phils’ 41-31 road record (.569) is actually better.
Entering Atlanta for a three-game set this weekend provides the Phils a chance to peck away at the Braves’ four-game lead in the NL East. There are 15 games remaining on the schedule. The Phillies must sweep this series if they want to have any chance of catching Atlanta down the stretch. They’re also one game up on the Cubs for the first wild card spot.
Winning the division and/or the top wild card means a home playoff series in the wild card round against either the Cubs or Braves.
The idea of playing a short, best-of-three series on the road at Wrigley Field or Atlanta doesn’t sound too enticing, and after Thursday’s loss to the Astros, Bryce Harper admitted getting homefield advantage is something they definitely want.
Zack Wheeler, who pitched seven brilliant innings in defeat yesterday, echoed Harper’s sentiments.
I’m not saying this should not be the goal of Harper, Wheeler, or the rest of the team’s, goal. Of course it should be and, all things being equal, you’d rather play as many home playoff games as possible. You want the Phillies to finish ahead of the Cubs and/or Braves in the standings. The Phils have had their fair share of crushing postseason losses on the road, too.
But given the nature of these Phillies, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for them to be road underdogs rather than having homefield advantage in the playoffs.
I hate talking about things like “aura” and “vibes,” but let’s be honest about the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park during big games/series.
Yes, the fans are present, they are loud, and at the start of games, they are all-in. Hope abounds.
But as much as the players say how big an advantage the home crowd is, it’s pretty clear that this group tightens up as games progress. With each passing inning the offense remains muted, the pressure builds. With each blown save, the dread grows.
Over their last six playoff games, here is how many runs the Phils have scored in each of them: 1, 2, 2, 7, 3, and 3. That’s an average of 3.0 runs per game. In their five losses, they’ve averaged 2.2.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you the offense has been a juggernaut on the road, but going back to Game 3 of the 2023 NLCS in Arizona, here are the runs they’ve scored away from CBP: 1, 5, 6, 2, 1, 8, 1. That’s an average of 3.4 runs per game.
The general idea is the offense needs to perform better overall, as does the late inning relief. And again, playing at home does have its advantages, all things being equal.
But if the mindset of the team is at all important heading into this October, perhaps embracing underdog status wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. An “us against the world” mentality. The weight of expectations on this team isn’t going to go away just because they’re the second or third wild card team, and if they lose in the opening round on the road, it won’t make the disappointment any less bitter.
But maybe forcing the Phillies to be road warriors would be better for them than feeling more comfortable as hosts for the wild card round.
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