Record: 39-39. Pace: 81-81. Change on 2025: -1.
I suppose we should have predicted a one-run game here, and it may not be the last in the series. Coming in, the D-backs and Cardinals were first and equal second (with the Dodgers) for the most one run games in the National League. Arizona were 13-12, and St. Louis 13-10. Both those numbers now tick up a point in the appropriate direction. The D-backs’ recent string of futility with runners in scoring position continued. While they pulled back from three runs down to close within one, they were unable to get the big when they needed it. The runs scored on a solo home-run by Tommy Troy, and a groundout by ex-Cardinal Nolan Arenado, but Arizona went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
I would not have bet on a one-run game three batters into the bottom of the first, however. With a possible bullpen game looming on the horizon, the last thing the Diamondbacks needed was a short outing from Merrill Kelly. It looked like one could be on the Cards (pun very much intended), as Kelly allowed back-to-back singles, followed by a walk, to load the bases before getting around to retiring a home hitter. However, disaster was averted in two pitches, as Jordan Walker (5th in the NL for homers coming in), lined out to Geraldo Perdomo and the next pitch saw Lars Nootbaar (1st in the NL for name that’s most fun to say) hit into a double-play.
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Unfortunately, that basically used up all Arizona’s luck points for the evening. That much was spectacularly clear in the third inning, after Ketel Marte singled to lead things off. Perdomo then hit into what was a potential double-play, but Masyn Winn’s screaming throw to first skidded past the first baseman. Geraldo then tried to take second, but appears to have been blown over by the shockwave from Wynn’s throw (above). That’s the only way to explain him eating dirt, on his way to the old 4-6-3-6-2 double-play, where both of the outs were made at second-base. After that, it really didn’t feel like it was going to be the D-backs’ night.
The bottom of the third proved it. A lead-off single almost drilled Kelly, and the runner came around to score on a perfectly-placed infield hit with an expected batting average of just .060. That was the first of the Cardinals’ two hits with RISP tonight, and gave them a 1-0 lead. At least it was followed by another double-play, this one sweetly turned by Arenado. Speaking of whom, he got a very nice reception from the St. Louis fans when he stepped to the plate in the second inning. Perhaps a little surprising, considering how much their team is paying for him to be on the Arizona roster, this year and next. But they appear to be mostly intent on remembering the good times, like 2022 when he was 3rd in MVP voting behind some “Goldschmidt” guy.
The Cardinals added to their lead in the fourth, after a lead-off walk came home on a sacrifice fly, and a two-out RBI single followed for a 3-0 lead. That was the end of the damage against Kelly, who was able to deliver a quality start, by the bare minimum in both metrics: exactly six innings pitched, with precisely three earned runs allowed. He allowed seven hits, all of which were singles, but walked three and struck out just two of the 26 batters faced. That’s a K-rate of 5.23 per nine innings, one of the worst by any everyday pitcher in the majors this year. His K:BB ratio is 1.42, compared to 3.48 last season, and that’s surely one of the main reasons for his struggles.
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The Diamondbacks were able to make something of a game of it. They got on the board on the sixth. Corbin Carroll led off with a double off the wall in right, which would have been a home-run in 21 parks. He scored anyway, on a pair of groundouts. There was no such doubt about Arizona’s second run, coming courtesy of Tommy Troy’s third home-run of the year (above) in the seventh inning. It was a no-doubter, estimated at 444 feet. That’s the third-longest by any Arizona batter this year, trailing a 448 ft Carroll shot (at Coors, so give it a *), and a 452 ft. monster by Marte in San Francisco. Not bad for a kid playing only his 25th major-league game.
That was more or less that last hoorah for Arizona. Marte singled and stole second, but a groundout by Perdomo started a run of the seven final D-backs being retired in order, ending the game with the one-run margin in favor of the Cardinals. Taylor Clarke and Johnny Lasagna kept St. Louis off the board the rest of the way. Arizona did outhit their opponents 8-7 and also prevailed 3-0 in the XBH column. But they didn’t draw a single walk and, along with the RISP failings, that was likely the difference maker here. [Wait till you see the Deserve To Win chart in the comments…] Arizona drops back to .500, at the beginning of a tough series of games leading into the All-Star break.
Click here for details, at Fangraphs.com
The Perfect Kiss: Taylor Clarke, +6%
World in Motion: Geraldo Perdomo, -22%
State of the Nation: Lourdes Gurriel, -10%
Just shy of two hundred comments, which given the early start time here in Arizona, is quite respectable. There were some very respectable comments in the GDT, but the most rec’d ones tended to rely on GIF usage, which doesn’t translate very well to screenshots. So let’s give it to ChefAZ for this uplifting bit of news, on a night when our five-game streak of winning on Mondays came to an end.
Tomorrow sees another 4:45 pm first pitch (AZ time), with team ace Eduardo Rodriguez – nope, still sounds weird – taking the mound for the D-backs. Probably our best chance of victory in the series, so fingers crossed the team gets back above .500.
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