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The Tampa Bay Rays hope to clinch the series with the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday as they host their second game back at the newly-reopened Tropicana Field.
Monday saw the Rays pick up an emotional 6-4 win, and the MLB odds indicate they’re expected to replicate that with Drew Rasmussen on the bump.
My Cubs vs. Rays predictions have MLB picks for the side and total for Tuesday, April 7.
Who will win Cubs vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-128)
Drew Rasmussen’s increased cutter usage is a key reason for his strong start. He’s picked up a whiff rate of 29.4% with the pitch, utilizing it 7% more than last season.
Tuesday he faces a Chicago Cubs lineup whose .340 xwOBAcon and .213 xBA are fourth-worst in the bigs.
Yandy Diaz is setting the table for the Tampa Bay Rays with a .395 xwOBA and a .489 OBP. As a team, they rank fifth in xBA and wOBA, and sixth in slugging.
They’ll score runs against Javier Assad, making his first start after posting a 4.86 xERA and 4.69 xFIP last season.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Assad got crushed by LHH in 2025, allowing a .293/.339/.552 split and nine earned runs vs. 62 batters faced.
Cubs vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay has consistently been going over the total this season, even when the opponent hasn’t been contributing.
Monday’s 6-4 win marked the eighth Over in 10 games to start the season and I expect that trend to continue. Assad will likely get punished by the top of the order, especially if Diaz gets on-base in front of Jonathan Aranda.
The Cubs bullpen has a 4.63 xFIP and 5.41 xERA. Tampa Bay has seen its pen far even worse, with a 4.94 xFIP and 6.08 xERA. Both rank in the bottom third, and late runs will push the total north of the number.
Ence’s 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 0-1, -1.00 units
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Over/Under bets: 1-0, +1.00 units
Cubs vs Rays odds
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Moneyline: Chicago +117 | Tampa Bay -122
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Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-186) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+170)
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Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)
Cubs vs Rays trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 away games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rays.
How to watch Cubs vs Rays and game info
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Location |
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
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Date |
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 |
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First pitch |
6:40 p.m. ET |
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TV |
Marquee, RAYS |
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Cubs starting pitcher |
Javier Assad |
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Rays starting pitcher |
Drew Rasmussen |
Cubs vs Rays latest injuries
Cubs vs Rays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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