Countdown to Practice #3: Paul McNeil

Welcome to the Preseason – Basketball practice officially starts in 3 days, September 21st.

Before last season, BTP posters were saying, “I can’t remember who’s on the team this season.” We’re here to help!

We’re counting down the 10 days to the beginning of practice ’26-’27 by taking another look at this season’s roster, focusing on the 10 players most likely to make an impact. This article is about Coach Gainey’s biggest win of the offseason; despite being outbid by other schools, Paul McNeil has returned to the NC State Wolfpack.

Basketball News

• Generally the weight gains reflect what we have already been told – EXCEPT WILKINS

• Finally we have Jurkovic’s weight, and he’s a little taller than we thought

• Smartly, McNeil added an inch to boost his NBA resume

Predicted breakdown of minutes per player:

#2 Paul McNeil

This will be Paul’s third season on the Wolfpack team, and his third (and most expensive!) coaching staff. Paul will be forever loved by fans for sticking with the program through the coaching changes, just as much as for setting the program record for most made 3PT shots in a season and having a 47/10 double-double in last season’s Heritage game. It’s becoming less common that players of his ability stick around 3 seasons, so we probably won’t get another.

• PPG / RPG / APG:13.8 ppg / 3.6 rpg / 0.8 apg

• Shooting: 43.3% / 42.7% (105-246) / 82.4%

’25-’26 season Highs:

• Points: 47 points, double digits 23 games, 20+ 8 games

Strength

• Usage – Probably exactly what you want for his role as designated marksman

• True Shooting % – Excellent

• Assist % / A/TO – A designated catch & shoot guy is not expected to pass much, but when he does, he’s very good at getting it to the right guy.

Weakness

• No surprise, overall Paul is not a strong defender

• Block % – He ranks in the 59th percentile, but if you compare only to other guards he ranks very well, the 83rd percentile.

Strength

• Three-point percentage – obviously

Weakness

• Doesn’t take a lot of shots inside the arc, and doesn’t pick up shooting fouls

Patrick Stacy

“Only player in history to make that volume of 3’s [last season] with that accuracy”

Coach Gainey

“Paul is coachable, I’m excited about the things he is doing with the ball, excited about the things he is doing on defense, he’s taken his leadership role very seriously. “

Expectations – Wolfpack nation LOVES Paul. He’s come back twice, and we’re told he turned down a big offer to move to Baton Rouge. But even the biggest fans (including me), have always had a few concerns:

Concern: Size – Paul has always been skinny, and we all wondered how that impacted the fact that he doesn’t often successfully drive to the basket. In pictures from the offseason workouts, Paul’s recently added muscle definition is very impressive.

Concern: One-dimensional offense – As noted above, Paul seldom takes it to the rim. Obviously, a big part of that is his role in the offense. But to be a well-rounded NBA player, he probably needs to increase the perception that he can beat you from 3PT and he’s a threat take it to the rim, as well. Last season only 23.9% of his made shots were inside the arc. But he did dunk it 4 times (4/4, 100%) and made 25 of what Torvik calls ‘Close 2PT’ shots. ( at 62.5%) A few steps further away his shooting percentage drops to 24.2%. Coach Gainey’s comments (above) on what he is doing with the ball, are encouraging.

Concern: Defense – (You can’t be a ‘3 & D guy’ if you can’t ‘D’ – Confucius) Last season he ranked 10th on the Wolfpack in DPBM (Defensive box plus/minus) at -0.1. That means the opponent’s offense does better when he is ON the court than off. He beat out only teammates Jerry Deng, Jordan Snell, and Colt Langdon in that metric. Not good company, Robert.

I believe this will be Paul’s best season, but I don’t see him breaking his 3PT record. With the Wolfpack having 3 or 4 very good (38% +) 3PT shooters on the court at all times, the team might set a 3PT record as a whole, but the made shots should be distributed across more players. The floor spacing this team will cause should allow Paul, Hammond and Adams room to attack the rim. Defensively, I believe in Coach Gainey. He’s talked about Paul’s “coachability”. I believe Paul’s improvement on defense, as well as the entire team’s, will be the single most significant improvement by the Wolfpack this season positively reflecting on this season’s coaching staff versus the previous. However, there’s a caveat. It will not be immediate. Hopefully we’ll see the individual defensive effort there out of the gate, but it’s going to take time to become a really good defensive team.