The 2026 Boston Red Sox are somehow just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot entering the final two games before the All-Star break. Just three teams sit ahead of them in between the final wild card spot with the Toronto Blue Jays, the Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins.
That field has shrunk in recent weeks, making the idea of the Red Sox leapfrogging them a more realistic possibility. As we wrote about a few months ago, the American League is bad. It’s been bad before, but this year is in a realm of its own.
Boston is not good, but the team still could find a way to October this year. Isn’t that crazy? Because they’re really not a contender and should still sell at the deadline. But the open nature and brutal mediocrity of the AL leaves the door to the playoffs open far longer than this installment of the Red Sox deserves.
That’s not to say there aren’t bright spots, because that’s the reason we’re having this conversation at all. The rotation is beyond exceptional with a multitude of quality arms, even in a season where multiple went down, headlined by the extended absence of Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox also earned two initial All-Star selections in Aroldis Chapman and Ranger Suarez. Willson Contreras joined the party as a replacement and (for now) snub Sonny Gray should be next in line if another injury need comes up to head to Philadelphia next week.
The Red Sox have the necessary pitching for October. The problem, as has been the case all season, is the offense, though the group has put together solid outings consistently in a six-game winning streak against questionable competition. If the conversation is to stick around this summer about whether or not Boston should still have playoff aspirations this season, a real conversation needs to be had about what the lineup can truly be down the stretch.
Obviously, they still need to get healthy. With that said, here’s the best possible lineup construction the Red Sox can get to with the players they currently have in the organization.
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Caleb Durbin, 3B (probably has real argument to be higher)
That gets them close to what the group looked like on Opening Day healthy. If the Red Sox get back to this standard, they’d still probably need another impact guy externally to make a real playoff push.
That’s where the trade deadline gets so complicated as of this time, because Boston should still probably sell given the assets they have. But if they get serious about trying to play for October, another bat is a necessity.
The fit is interesting because an infielder makes the most sense, particularly up the middle. That rental market isn’t great, unless they deal from pitching depth and swing for Ketel Marte again with young pitching going to Arizona.
The idea of Boston riding its pitching staff through a remarkable season turnaround to the postseason isn’t too crazy at this point. But if the Red Sox cannot get enough of a consistent lineup together – both in production and health – to support the arms, the pros of buying may not even be worth it by season’s end.
And the risk of not getting the capable return of their assets as sellers matters too much in the decision.
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