Birdland: Mariners at Orioles Series Preview

The Mariners opened their road trip with a particularly deflating series loss to the Detroit Tigers, but the good news is that now Motor City is in the rearview (for the regular season, anyway). Also fortunately in the rearview are the weird 10 a.m. PT start times; this week, they’ll be replaced by some good ‘ol fashioned afterschool baseball in the great state of Maryland.

It’s not very descriptive to say that the Orioles have had a funky start to their season, because for most of this decade and a good chunk of the preceding one, funk has been the rule, rather than the exception. (Funk, as a verb here is expansive – like the groovy tunes some years, like the odor of bleu cheese other years, one consonant off from a common uttering most years.) They’re eight games back of their division with a 31-35 record but only 1.5 games out of a wild card spot, floundering in the muck of mediocrity alongside the A’s and Blue Jays. They had a start to the season that led my Orioles fan friend, Alex, to text things like “Please reassure me that 53 plate appearances is too early to judge a one dimensional slugger on a newly-minted long term contract.” and “Historical precedent is strictly descriptive, not determinative, right?” and “There is no god.”

But these O’s have picked themselves up a few times over now, and while they may not be world-beaters, there are signs of life and upside (not in the bullpen, don’t look over there, spare yourselves!). You can read their thoughts on the impending match-up over at Camden Chat.

The Orioles currently have the fifth-highest strikeout rate and the sixth-highest walk rate paired with some distinctly middle-of-the-road contact numbers. It’s also worth noting that only four players have accrued 200+ plate appearances at this point, indicative of intermittent injury struggles and some reclamation projects. Former AL Rookie of the Year contender and longtime light at the end of the Bad Years in Baltimore Tunnel, Adley Rutschman (“play badly for Adley” is a clever little ditty that will live on in my brain for eternity) had a torrid start, but has cooled in recent weeks. Gunnar Henderson is being propped up by his good defense, Taylor Ward is as annoyingly-decent as ever, and former “friend” Leody Taveras has slashed his strikeout rate by third, which makes him a reasonably functional big leaguer. Their big offensive signing, Pete Alonso, petrified everyone with his frigid start, but he’s since been about what you would expect. Other names to note are Samuel Basallo, their younger, better (?) catcher who had a scorching month at the plate in May; Jackson Holliday, former top prospect and eternal nepo baby, who started the season on the injured list; and Coby Mayo, pressed into service at third after Jordan Westburg’s season-ending elbow surgery.

Probable Pitchers

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Despite possessing a deep seven-pitch repertoire, Chris Bassitt leans on his sinker nearly 40% of the time. His other six pitches are peppered in sparingly with his cutter and curveball making up the majority of his secondary pitch usage. He has enough unique looks that he can keep batters off his sinker, but it also means his strikeout rate remains pretty low. He’s managed to maintain a great amount of consistency with that profile; over the last seven years, he’s averaged 2.4 fWAR per season. It isn’t exciting, but it gets the job done, and that’s exactly what the Orioles were looking for when they signed him as a free agent this offseason.

Trevor Rogers enjoyed a bit of a resurgence with the Orioles last year. A one-time top prospect with the Marlins, he finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 but injuries derailed his career over the next three seasons. It looked like he had finally regained his skills last year, posting a 1.81 ERA and a 2.82 FIP in 18 starts for Baltimore, but things have fallen apart again this season. His velocity looks intact — that was the key to his success last year — but his breaking balls have suddenly lost their effectiveness and his ERA has ballooned to over six.

Brandon Young graduated from the Orioles’ development pipeline last year after landing sixth on their 2025 prospect list. He’s got above average skills across the board but no clear carrying tool to push his profile above a back-end starter. His fastball is probably his best pitch, though he’s introduced a new slider this year that shows a lot of promise. He’ll also mix in a curveball and a splitter to keep left-handed batters at bay. His strikeout rate isn’t all that impressive, but he’s found some success by limiting the amount of hard contact he allows.

Kyle Bradish looked like he had made the jump to ace-dom back in 2024 but Tommy John surgery derailed his breakout. He returned to the mound late last year and looked like he was ready to pick up exactly where he left off. Things haven’t gone so smoothly this season, however. The key to his success all those years ago were his two breaking balls. His curveball has looked fine this year, but his slider has been knocked around a bunch. The effectiveness of his sinker has also waned a bit because he’s struggled to locate that pitch in the zone. That’s led to a pretty big jump in walk rate to go along with a much lower strikeout rate.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers gained a game on the Mariners by winning their weekend series against the Guardians. Texas heads out on a road trip this week beginning with a three-game set in Kansas City. The Astros won their series against the Athletics over the weekend. Houston is now just 4.5 games back in the division after going 10-6 over their last 16 games. The Astros travel to Los Angeles to face the Angels while the Athletics host the Brewers in their Triple-A affiliates’ stadium in Las Vegas.