Raymond Muratalla surrendered the belt after struggling to make 135 pounds for his recent defense against Robson Conceição. He plans to continue his career at light welterweight, creating an opening for the IBF’s two highest-ranked available contenders.
Cruz (7-1, 4 KOs) lost a majority decision to Muratalla in January after challenging for the championship in only his seventh professional appearance. Muratalla’s pressure and activity became increasingly effective during the later rounds, showing that Cruz’s extensive amateur background had not fully prepared him for the physical demands of a hard professional fight.
The 31-year-old Cuban returned in July and stopped late replacement Abraham Montoya in three rounds. His brief comeback gave no clear indication that he had corrected the weaknesses exposed by Muratalla.
An exceptional counterpuncher with world-class reflexes, Cruz often depends on distance, quick reactions, and single clean shots. Those tools can control shorter amateur bouts. Over 12 rounds, repeatedly changing direction and escaping exchanges can drain a fighter who is not comfortable holding his ground or working inside.
Subkhankulov (12-0, 6 KOs) will try to force that type of contest. The 34-year-old Russian southpaw earned his position by stopping Bakhodur Usmonov in the 12th round of their April eliminator. Usmonov went down four times across the final three rounds before the referee ended the action.
His southpaw position will also test Cruz’s lead foot placement and ability to land the right hand without remaining in range for counters. Subkhankulov is unlikely to be discouraged by feints or a difficult opening six rounds. His best chance is to attack the body, keep Cruz working, and turn the final third into another test of stamina.
There is history between them. Cruz defeated Subkhankulov by split decision when they met in the semifinals of the Ústí nad Labem Grand Prix in May 2019. The three-round amateur result offers Cruz some familiarity, but it says little about how their styles will interact over a professional championship distance.
The October 7 deadline may determine more than the fighters’ pay. Cruz has spent his professional career fighting in the United States, while Subkhankulov has done much of his work in Russia and on IBA-promoted cards. If negotiations fail and Subkhankulov’s side wins the purse bid, Cruz may have to pursue the championship far from his usual surroundings.
This is still a favorable route back for Cruz. He avoids another meeting with Muratalla and faces someone he has already beaten. However, two championship appearances within his first nine professional outings show how aggressively his career is being pushed.
At 31, Cruz does not have years to spend developing against mid-level opposition. Winning the vacant belt against Subkhankulov may be the calculated shortcut his team needs. Losing would show that the rush from decorated amateur to professional champion asked too much of him too quickly.
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