We are close enough to the MLB playoffs that we can assume the postseason field in the National League is set—by the time you read this, it’s possible that the Diamondbacks could be eliminated from postseason contention and the six teams who will participate in the NL playoffs are finalized, with only the order of the three Wild Card teams remaining to be sorted out. So, a week out from the start of the postseason, let’s take a look at the five teams the Brewers could end up facing when they suit up for the National League Division Series on October 3rd.
I don’t do this necessarily to create a ranking of who I’d most like to face, but to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each team in order to judge what sort of threat they present. Of course anything can happen in the postseason, so this is likely all moot anyway, but it’s an interesting exercise.
I will go in alphabetical order, and I’ll include run differential plus ranks from FanGraphs for overall offense, overall defense, wRC+, and expected ERA.
92-64, clinched NL East
Offense: 19th; Defense: 7th; wRC+: 98 (18th); xERA: 4.04 (13th)
The Braves won the NL East without too much trouble this year, as they’ve got a six-game advantage over the Phillies as of Monday afternoon and have been in first for essentially the entire season; the last time they weren’t in first in the NL East was on April 7th. The East was expected to be a competitive division, but the Mets’ tailspin and the Phillies’ awful start made it easy.
The Braves might have reason to be nervous, though. They jumped out to a nine-game lead in the division by mid-May and were rocking a winning percentage near .700, which held out until the second week of June. But since they were 42-20 on June 4th, they’ve gone 50-44 and they let the Phillies get to within three games at the beginning of September. Atlanta won two of three from the Phillies last week and then swept the Astros over the weekend, which clinched the division, but this isn’t a team that’s playing its best baseball at the moment.
While Atlanta hasn’t quite lived up offensively to the juggernaut it looked like they’d be for the foreseeable future after a team of young stars led them to the World Series in 2021, they’re still heavy on offensive talent. Matt Olson is the most reliable player in baseball, and no, he’s not at the level that nearly won him the MVP in 2023, but this season he’s got 40 homers and 33 doubles—not too shabby. Acuña, likewise, isn’t the same player he was before knee injuries sapped some of the explosiveness that won him the 2023 MVP, but he’s still a dangerous player who managed 20 homers in just 103 games so far this season (though his baserunning has gone from “weapon” to “liability”—he’s stealing bases this season at just a 71 percent clip).
The other big offensive piece is 2025 Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin, who for much of this season looked like Atlanta’s best offensive player. A midsummer swoon hurt his overall numbers a bit, but he’s hitting .313/.370/.478 over the last two months, essentially, not too shabby for a catcher. There are a lot of other familiar names in the lineup: Michael Harris II can certainly win you a game, Ozzie Albies has 22 homers, Austin Riley has 17 (even if his game has mostly fallen apart otherwise).
On the other side, the big story is Chris Sale, who should finish third in NL Cy Young voting after winning the award two seasons ago. Even at age 37, Sale is killing it—over the past three seasons, he is 39-17 with a 2.37 ERA and 2.31 FIP in 460 1/3 innings while striking out 11.3 batters per nine and walking only two. He’s a Hall of Famer, and he’s pitching as well as he has ever pitched. There are only a couple of pitchers in the league who can match up with Misiorowski, and Sale is one of them.
Injuries have been a big problem for the Braves’ pitching staff over the past couple of seasons, so there are bigger questions after Sale. Grant Holmes and Martín Pérez have ably filled their roles; neither is likely to throw a postseason shutout or anything, but they’ve both covered over 140 innings with ERAs below 3.50. (Both have FIP numbers significantly higher, though, so who knows.) Deadline pickup Tyler Mahle has also been huge: after posting a 5.13 ERA in 18 starts with the Giants before the trade, he has a 1.28 ERA (!) in eight starts since joining Atlanta. I’ve been waiting for Mahle to get blown up for weeks and it hasn’t happened, so who knows, we may keep waiting.
The bullpen is a strength, though their closer, Raisel Iglesias, has been mediocre over the past couple of months after an incredible start. Overall he has good numbers, but I suspect Braves fans will be nervous if he needs to protect a one-run lead late in a playoff game. Atlanta has also gotten big relief seasons from Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee, and there is one big question mark here: Robert Suárez, the former San Diego closer who started the season with a 0.56 ERA in 32 innings, hasn’t pitched since mid-June because of elbow inflammation. He was sent on a rehab assignment this week, though, and pitched for Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday. If he’s able to pitch at the level he was early in the season, it’s a game-changing addition for Atlanta.
Strengths: Bullpen, a deep lineup, a real ace. Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, can the rotation keep producing after Sale?
87-69, currently holding first Wild Card position
Offense: 1st; Defense: 1st; wRC+: 115 (1st); xERA: 4.60 (24th)
The Cubs are a strange team. Their offense and defense are both ranked first. Their pitching is not. It’s been a struggle on the mound this year; injuries decimated the staff (most prominently with Cade Horton, who threw only 7 1/3 innings before his elbow blew up, and Ben Brown, who looked like the team’s best pitcher when healthy but who hasn’t pitched since late June) and it’s just been a real struggle.
There is real danger here. Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to win the MVP award, and as much as I don’t want to admit it, he will 100% deserve it; he has a strong case as the league’s best defensive player and he’s leading the league in OPS, runs scored, and homers. He’s almost surely going to have a 40/40 season and he has 10.4 WAR via FanGraphs. It is a historically good season.
That’s far from all in the lineup. Seiya Suzuki is just a good hitter and has been dependable. Ian Happ has struggled a bit but he’s got 24 homers. Michael Busch is dangerous, even if the surface numbers have taken a step back. Michael Conforto has recovered from his nightmare 2025 season and has been a very good role player. Tyrone Taylor has been great since coming over at the trade deadline. Everyone walks—only the Brewers have a higher walk percentage this season than the Cubs.
Then there’s the defense. Whether you are a fan of Defensive Runs Saved or Outs Above Average, the Cubs are far and away the best team in the league.
Now, there are some issues here: Alex Bregman, who has been their second-best offensive player in the second of the season and who is a good defender, suffered facial fractures after being hit by a foul ball on Sunday. For now, we don’t know what his situation is; according to Jeff Passan, he is electing not to undergo surgery at this time, which could mean a return in the postseason is possible. We also don’t know what to expect from Dansby Swanson, who was playing well when he strained an oblique a little over a month ago. He had a good weekend, but we’ll see.
But the biggest problem is pitching. Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, and David Peterson are all players who have thrown at least 75 innings for the Cubs this year, and not one of them has a FIP better than 4.20. Kevin Gausman hasn’t been good since coming over at the deadline. Clay Holmes started well after his trade to the Cubs but his September has been disastrous. The bullpen isn’t in any better shape; they can’t figure out who their closer is (no Cub has more than nine saves this season) and even the players who have pitched better have serious questions. No joke, their best reliever of late has been Aaron Civale (who has allowed only five earned runs in 32 1/3 innings with Chicago this season).
This team could win the World Series. The offense and defense are that good. But if they do, I’m fairly certain they’d be doing it with the worst pitching staff to ever win a title.
Strengths: the MVP, the lineup, the defense. Weakness: Almost everyone who steps on the mound.
96-60, clinched NL West, likely to get first-round bye
Offense: 2nd; Defense: 13th; wRC+: 111 (2nd); xERA: 3.62 (2nd)
The Dodgers are now in the “favorites until they’re not” phase of their dynasty, and a glance at any betting market (for whatever that’s worth) will show you that even if the Dodgers don’t have the best record in the league, they’re the clear favorite to win the World Series, at least in a casual sense. I’ve observed this amongst my own friends, who follow the Brewers but aren’t die-hard baseball fans—they all assume the Brewers will just lose to the Dodgers again in the postseason.
Maybe, maybe not. While the Dodgers are undoubtedly still very good, cracks may be beginning to show. Shohei Ohtani, who is banged up and currently on the injured list, has his lowest OPS+ (a still stellar 146, but still) since 2022. While he was outstanding when on the mound this year, he couldn’t stay healthy and it seems certain that he will not pitch in the postseason. He recently turned 32, so this may be the new normal for him. Will Smith has only played 69 games. Freddie Freeman, at 36, is having his worst season since he was 22 in 2012. A good September (he has a 1.215 OPS in 17 games this month) has buoyed Mookie Betts’ numbers, but he was about a league-average hitter for the season’s first five months. He’s also about to turn 34. Teoscar Hernández, at age 33, hasn’t been the same hitter the last two seasons that he was the six or seven before that. Kyle Tucker has been, mostly, a very expensive bust.
And yet, they still have the second-best offense in the league, which is frustrating. Unexpected sources have stepped up: Andy Pages became one of the league’s most well-rounded players and has over 20 homers. Max Muncy, another mid-30s guy, doesn’t seem to have lost anything and is having his best season by WAR since 2021. He’s got 29 homers and 26 doubles. Josue De Paula, the uberprospect who was called up all the way from Double-A to take some at-bats after Ohtani got hurt, is hitting .286/.474/.500 in 38 plate appearances. Like I said, frustrating.
On the whole, though, the offense looks beatable. They’re a little beat up and they’re definitely aging; this season more than any other since he got there, it feels like if you don’t let Ohtani beat you, then you can (carefully) deal with the rest of the lineup.
The pitching staff is impressive, though. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the reigning World Series MVP, continues to be one of the most reliable players in the league and should finish in the top five or so in NL Cy Young voting. Blake Snell missed much of the season but has been incredible in eight starts since returning; he has a 1.86 ERA and 1.73 FIP in 38 2/3 innings and looks like one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball right now. Tyler Glasnow looks like the best number four starter in the league. Oh, and they have Tarik Skubal.
The bullpen isn’t exactly a strength but it’s been a lot better than last year, even though the high-priced Edwin Díaz move hasn’t worked out thus far. After a horrible year last year, Tanner Scott has ably stepped into the closer role. Alex Vesia continues to get outs. Jack Dreyer has been solid. Edgardo Henriquez has been excellent, though he’s on the injured list with back trouble at the moment. Plus, guys like Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, and Rokie Sasaki—who’ve been up and down as starters this year—could fill Chad Patrick-like roles for this bullpen in the postseason.
I understand why they’re the favorite, and it’s definitely possible that everything will come together at the right time again the way it did last year. But this team isn’t invulnerable.
Strengths: Starting rotation, Shohei, experience. Weaknesses: Age, health.
Philadelphia Phillies
86-70, currently holding third Wild Card position
Offense: 27th; Defense: 18th; wRC+: 92 (27th); xERA: 3.64 (3rd)
This Phillies team is a weird inversion of the Phillies teams I feel like I’m used to from the last few years. Aside from a couple of notable exceptions, they can’t really hit. But after years of absolute chaos in their bullpen, they’re rocking one of the league’s best closers, and in the rotation there is some real juice.
Let’s start there, with Cristopher Sánchez. While I still think it’s likely that Misiorowski wins the Cy Young, Sánchez is almost certainly going to prevent him from winning unanimously. He’s made 32 starts and thrown 200 innings, with a 2.93 ERA and 2.81 FIP. The advantage in innings means that he’s comfortably ahead of all other pitchers in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR.
The rest of the rotation is in good shape too, though a shoulder injury for Jesús Luzardo creates some uncertainty. Luzardo has had an excellent season: in 29 starts, he’s actually ahead of Sánchez in both ERA and FIP and is striking out 11.1 batters per nine. He’s one of the league’s best pitchers, but while the team is hopeful he can return from this late-season injury, it’s unclear if he’d be able to start or would need to move to the bullpen.
Zack Wheeler is here, and he’s been typically excellent. It’s been mostly a struggle for Aaron Nola over the past two seasons, but he’s got a 2.92 ERA since the beginning of July (though there’s some noise in those numbers). The bullpen is anchored by Jhoan Duran, who has a 1.76 ERA and 1.45 FIP in 56 1/3 innings, but there are some questions beyond him. Luzardo could play a major role there, if he’s not able to start.
Offensively, though, it’s rough. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are getting older—both are in their age-33 seasons—and have done what they can. Harper leads the NL in walks and is hitting .271/.382/.491 with 28 homers; a good season. Schwarber leads the NL with 45 homers and is having what I’d describe as a fairly typical Schwarber season. But after that, there is nothing. Amongst J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Justin Crawford, Edmundo Sosa, and Luis Arraez, there are precisely zero players with an OPS+ above 90. That’s really, really rough.
The offensive problems are probably too much for the pitching staff to overcome, especially with Luzardo’s health as a question mark. Harper has a history of elevating his play in the postseason and Schwarber is not a mystery, but there’s just too little.
Strengths: Starting rotation, the closer, Harper and Schwarber. Weaknesses: Bullpen depth, everyone else who hits
87-69, currently holding second Wild Card position
Offense: 7th; Defense: 4th; wRC+: 102 (11th); xERA: 3.98 (9th)
The Padres are a surprisingly well-balanced team. They might have the best 1-2 punch in the bullpen in all of baseball with Mason Miller and Adrián Morejón, and there are several other solid contributors amongst the relief corps. After a weird, homerless start to the season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has looked much more like the perennial MVP candidate we have come to expect in the second half. Ty France is having maybe the most random great season in the entire league—be honest, did you know that Ty France is hitting .301/.366/.519 with 21 homers and 4.8 WAR this year? They’ve gotten good contributions from a variety of role players, like Luis Campusano and Samad Taylor and even Luis Rengifo, though his season is over after a torn ACL.
It comes down to the starting pitching, though. Michael King has turned into a really solid player, and he holds the top spot in San Diego’s rotation. Walker Buehler has stayed healthy this year (31 starts, his most since 2021), but he’s far from the player he was before his injuries and has been solidly below average. Randy Vásquez has been, in a word, fine. Casey Mize and Robbie Ray were acquired at the deadline to play major roles in the rotation… and they’ve combined for an ERA of 5.93 in 17 starts.
If the Padres can get just enough starting pitching to shorten games to the point that their bullpen can handle things, things could go well for them this postseason. But this is a team that looks like it has one starting pitcher worthy of any level of trust in the postseason right now, and that’s a difficult place to be. While the offense has performed well this year, it doesn’t look to me like a group that came overcome major pitching woes, like the Cubs’ group might be able to do. The Padres, to have success, will need to get something unexpected from a starting pitcher or two, and I’m not sure who that’ll be.
Strengths: The bullpen, Tatis, King. Weaknesses: The rotation beyond King, is this a lineup prone to slumps?
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