This week, we’re taking stock in the three major awards races, with roughly one-fifth of the regular season complete and the league’s best players starting to separate themselves. On Tuesday, we looked at the MVP races, and the likelihood that anyone could prevent Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani from three-peating as the best in their respective leagues. Now it’s time to look at a much more crowded competition and survey the pitchers vying for the Cy Young award.
This race was upended earlier this week with the news that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal will be sidelined for an indefinite period of time due to arthroscopic elbow surgery, eliminating his chances of becoming the third pitcher (Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux) to win three consecutive Cy Young awards.
Meanwhile in the National League defending winner, Paul Skenes, recorded just two outs in his Opening Day start and currently ranks outside the top-20 in fWAR among NL pitchers. All of which is to say, it has been a chaotic and unpredictable start to the 2026 Cy Young race, opening the door for several intriguing arms to surface as viable candidates to claim the highest pitching honor.
Let’s dig into who those pitchers could be.
American League
The contenders
After Zack Wheeler, Fried is at or near the top of the next tier of best active starting pitchers who have not won a Cy Young award, with his closest call coming in 2022 when he finished runner-up to Sandy Alcantara. Could this finally be Fried’s year? Fried finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting last year in his first season as a Yankee, and the three pitchers who finished ahead of him — Skubal, Garrett Crochet (shoulder inflammation), and Hunter Brown (shoulder strain) – are all on the injured list, with Skubal and Brown likely to miss too much time to remain factors in the Cy Young conversation.
But it’s not just a matter of his top competition being on the shelf, as Fried has been fantastic in his own right, leading MLB in innings pitched while turning in a quality start in six of his eight outings. The 32-year-old lefty flummoxes hitters with a balanced six-pitch mix, coaxing more weak contact than whiffs but remaining remarkably effective nevertheless. He might not rack up strikeouts like most modern aces, but he’s as reliable as it gets when it comes to run prevention, ensuring his staying power in the Cy Young race, especially if his workload swells above 200 innings, an increasingly rare threshold to reach.
If Aaron Judge is facing some fierce competition in his own lineup for AL MVP courtesy of Ben Rice, the same dynamic can be found in the Yankees rotation, where Fried is far from the only starting pitcher who has been terrific across their first batch of outings in 2026. That even includes the likes of Will Warren and Ryan Weathers, but the next New York pitcher most likely to challenge for end-of-season accolades is Schlittler, the sophomore right-hander who overwhelms opponents in a much more blatant manner than his crafty teammate Fried.
Schlittler attacks almost entirely with his three fastball variants, alternating high–powered four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters that negate any need for a more traditional breaking ball or offspeed pitch. Among starters, only Jacob Misiorowski and Bubba Chandler have thrown more pitches in excess of 100 mph than Schlittler, who touched 101.3 mph on Monday against Baltimore. He leads all pitchers in fWAR, with his sparkling 1.52 ERA in 47 ⅓ innings supported by outstanding peripheral marks, including 53 strikeouts to just nine walks and 32 hits allowed. He looks like the real deal, adding to the Yankees’ abundance of impact starters with veterans Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón due back from injury soon.
Dylan Cease
The highest-paid pitcher in last year’s free agent class, Cease’s Blue Jays tenure is off to a fascinating start. In some respects, he looks similar to the successful pitcher he’s always been, leaning heavily on his four-seam/slider combo to tally a ton of whiffs while also issuing a few more free passes than preferred. But there are also some subtle upgrades to his profile that are worth noting, and could be the key to him finally claiming the Cy Young award after a pair of valiant efforts in 2022 and 2024.
First, Cease’s velocity has been especially excellent. His fastball is averaging a career-high 97.8 mph and he has already thrown 32 pitches in excess of 99 mph, on pace to smash his previous career high of 57 set last year. He’s also thrown a career-high 11% changeups, a third pitch that has long eluded him, and that pitch has garnered an astounding 59% whiff rate, the best mark of any cambio thrown at least 50 times this season. And finally, Cease is getting more grounders than ever before, rocking a 50.6% ground ball rate that is an enormous jump from the 37.8% mark he held entering this season. Command woes have continued to limit his efficiency — he has only completed seven innings once this season in seven tries — but Cease is doing a ton of things right for Toronto, and his Cy case should be respected accordingly.
In the hunt
José Soriano
The Angels right-hander surged out of the gates in stunning fashion, allowing just one earned run (0.24 ERA) across his first six starts, though consecutive shaky outings against the White Sox have pushed his ERA all the way up to … 1.74, which is still pretty good! Under the tutelage of new Angels pitching coach Mike Maddux, Soriano has showcased an improved arsenal across the board, most notably featuring an uptick in four-seam usage after leaning heavily on his sinker earlier in his career. With elite velocity and ground ball rates already intact, Soriano is now finding more whiffs with his premium stuff, enabling this exciting breakout in progress.
His teammate, Nick Martinez, may currently have the lower ERA, but Rasmussen’s superior peripherals and lengthy track record of elite run prevention make him the likeliest Rays starter to challenge for this award. Rasmussen made his first All-Star game last season and received one fifth-place Cy Young vote after throwing a career-high 150 innings. Durability has been a challenge throughout his career, but if he can push his workload up towards closer to 170-180 innings while setting the tone atop the rotation for a postseason-bound Rays club, he could be in good shape to appear on more than just one ballot.
Little about Martin’s 2025 suggested a breakout was right around the corner, but the former 14th-round draft pick has been a revelation for the White Sox in his second full season in the rotation. He doesn’t throw particularly hard but he attacks with about as balanced of an arsenal as you’ll ever see, throwing six different offerings (four-seam, changeup, cutter, slider, sinker, curveball) at least 10% of the time, keeping opposing hitters guessing at every turn. His 1.64 ERA is second-lowest in the AL only to Schlittler, and he ranks third among all qualified MLB starters in fWAR at 1.6, tied with Cristopher Sanchez and Skubal.
Four different Mariners starting pitchers — Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryan Woo — have earned down-ballot Cy Young votes over the past three seasons. Could Hancock, the former No. 6 overall pick, become the latest Seattle arm to break through as one of the top arms in the league? Hancock owns the high watermark for strikeouts in a game this season with his 14-punchout performance last weekend against Kansas City, and his 25.2% K-BB is tops among all qualified American League starters. He’s still got plenty to prove, but his improved velocity and splendid sweeper are promising trends in his favor.
(Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
National League
The contenders
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani’s sixth start of the season featured a rare road bump but also some encouraging progress toward the biggest accolade he has yet to earn in his illustrious career. The setback came courtesy of Astros slugger Christian Walker, who dispatched a first-pitch heater to the train tracks in left field at Daikin Park — the first home run Ohtani has allowed all season. The second came one inning later when backup infielder Braden Shewmake lofted one into the Crawford Boxes, providing the Astros with enough runs to escape with a narrow 2-1 victory over Los Angeles on Tuesday. On a more positive note, Ohtani completed seven innings for the first time this season after logging exactly six frames in each of his first five outings. He racked up another eight strikeouts without walking any, lowering his WHIP to an MLB-best 0.81. With his bat still relatively quiet — and him not hitting while pitching in three of his last four outings — questions continue to loom about how Ohtani is balancing his unprecedented responsibilities in his first full season as a two-way player since 2023. But as far as the pitcher side of him goes, it’s tough to ask him to have been much better. He’s been sensational on the hill.
As with the Yankees, the Dodgers too boast several rotation arms who fare particularly well in certain statistical categories. Tyler Glasnow has the second-lowest WHIP (0.83) among all qualified starters in MLB behind only Ohtani. Justin Wrobleski has the lowest ERA (1.25). Emmet Sheehan’s chase and whiff rates are both top-5 among NL starters. However, Yamamoto still projects as the safest bet to put together a complete season worthy of a Cy Young award, as his prior history of amassing sizable workloads puts him in a different category than all of his rotation peers, Ohtani included. Yamamoto’s stats may not jump off the page quite yet, but he’s easily the most likely to sustain standout run prevention for the long haul.
Paul Skenes
Opening Day disaster (⅔ inning pitched, five earned runs allowed) and continued misfortune against the Cardinals aside, let’s not brush Skenes’ chances of defending his crown aside too quickly. In the five starts between the mess at Citi Field and the five runs surrendered to St. Louis last weekend, Skenes allowed just three runs across 28 ⅓ innings pitched, with 29 strikeouts to just five walks. Even if his season-long stats may not even be the best in his own rotation — we see you, Braxton Ashcraft and Mitch Keller — the underlying data suggests Skenes is still in the strongest position to remain relevant in the Cy Young discussion for the duration of the season.
Cristopher Sanchez
It should not be overlooked that while Skenes won last year’s NL Cy Young Award unanimously, Sanchez received all 30 second-place votes, a rare achievement in its own right and a recognition of the lefty’s ascent into the inner-circle of the league’s top starting pitchers. It’s been a strange start to the 29-year-old southpaw’s season. He’s one of just two pitchers (Slade Cecconi) to allow 10+ hits in multiple starts this season, but he also just delivered one of the best pitched games of the year on Tuesday, throwing eight scoreless innings against the A’s while striking out 10 and allowing just five baserunners. On the whole, Sanchez’s numbers (2.42 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 58.6% ground ball rate) still look stellar, with Tuesday’s fabulous outing pushing Sanchez back to the top of the fWAR leaderboard among NL pitchers. Competition remains stiff, but expect Sanchez to factor heavily into the Cy Young conversation once again.
In the hunt
Jacob Misiorowski
When he’s on, Misiorowski is as unhittable as it gets, as evidenced by his ridiculously dominant 5 ⅓ no-hit innings against Washington over the weekend before departing early with a hamstring issue. It’s just a matter of workload and command for Milwaukee’s skinny sensation, as the stuff is simply stupendous, ensuring the punchouts will be there no matter what whenever he takes the hill. His 38.1% strikeout rate ranks first in MLB by a healthy margin. But he has only completed six innings five times in the big leagues out of 21 starts, making it difficult for him to tally the requisite frames typically associated with bona fide Cy Young candidates. If he can find a way to be more efficient, however, such accolades could certainly be in play for Misiorowski.
It’s remarkable how better Imanaga looks with his fastball sitting 92 mph rather than the 91 it featured last season, but that modest uptick in velocity on his unique heater has clearly made a difference for the 32-year-old lefty in his third major-league season. He remains fly-ball prone, but he’s doing a much better job of finding whiffs and has been elite at getting opposing batters to chase outside of the strike zone, leading to both strikeouts and weak contact. On a Cubs pitching staff ravaged by injuries elsewhere, Imanaga’s return to something more resembling his stellar rookie form has been refreshing for Chicago. His 0.85 WHIP is third-lowest among all qualified starting pitchers, and his 1.3 fWAR is tied for ninth.
At the very least, McLean has pitched himself toward the front of the NL Rookie of the Year race, but his performance may warrant Cy Young consideration by the end of the season as well. Clay Holmes may have the lower ERA (1.69) than McLean (2.97) for now, but all the underlying metrics indicate McLean is the one pitching at an outlier level. Perhaps no pitcher in baseball can create as many divergent shapes and movement profiles as McLean, and his strong command of that deep repertoire ensures his effectiveness against both handedness of hitters: righty bats have posted a .529 OPS against McLean, while lefties have mustered a paltry .508 mark. McLean’s 26.1% K-BB% ranks second in MLB behind Misiorowski.
Could San Diego’s flame-throwing closer become the first reliever to win the Cy Young award since Eric Gagne in 2003? His mind-blowing strikeout totals — now up to 32 in just 16 1/3 innings of work — could certainly keep him in the conversation, but the margins for relievers to be seriously considered for this award are so ridiculously slim that Miller will need to be nearly flawless the rest of the way to remain relevant in this race. Emmanuel Clase finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2024, having allowed just five earned runs (0.61 ERA) with a league-leading 47 saves. Miller promises to rack up far more strikeouts than Clase, but that level of run prevention could be tough to match — Miller has already allowed two earned runs this season — and save totals are awfully difficult to project and largely out of Miller’s control. We can’t rule him out just yet, but this is a tall task for Miller, especially factoring in his competition.
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