Astros GM Dana Brown has maintained that he intends to be a buyer at the deadline. Whether he is buying name brand or knockoff is a major question.
Houston is a conflicting situation. They have been ravaged by injuries for the third straight season. Owner Jim Crane has been watching the bottom line, leery of exceeding the luxury tax for a third straight season and incurring the penalties that come with it. The roster is top heavy, and not necessarily with as many top players as hoped at the beginning of the season. The outfield consists of a lot of guys who may benefit from playing at Sugar Land instead of Houston.
The Astros are also getting a generational MVP season from Yordan Alvarez that would be a baseball sin to waste. Jeremy Pena continues to play the role of ignitor at the top of the order. Isaac Paredes found hit bat on May 30th and hasn’t lost it since.
Jose Altuve is having a career-worst season. Christian Walker started hot, and has cooled off significantly.
The lineup legitimately needs two bats – outfield bats, ideally at least one of them being left-handed. At least one of them needs to be an impact bat of moderate value, the other at least a good avg/obp/speed type.
The starting pitching has been among the worst in baseball. Mike Burrows was the team’s big trade acquisition this offseason. He was brutally bad, and now he’s on the IL. Tatsuya Imai was their biggest free agent signing, and he’s been woefully inconsistent vacillating between looking like a top pitcher and looking like a disaster.
Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have just returned from Tommy John surgery. Spencer Arrighetti has starred in his Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde role, sometimes looking fantastic and sometimes awful, and is now on IL. Cristian Javier just had his best outing of the season in relief, 5 shutout innings that lowered his ERA to *7.17*. You read that right.
Hunter Brown is the ace of the staff. A grade 2 shoulder strain cost him 2 months. He struggled with his command afterwards, though his most recent start indicated he may be past those struggled. Peter Lambert has become the most consistent starter on the team and he was DFA’d after Spring Training.
The team needs a starting pitcher, ideally 2. They need at least one number 2-3 type starter, someone they can depend on to start a playoff game. They could still use another back of the rotation inning eater type, because getting 5 innings from each starter a full turn through the rotation has been a Herculean task for this team this season.
The bullpen has dealt with injury to All-Star closer Josh Hader, and reliable setup man Bennett Sousa. Bryan Abreu underperformed badly to start the season, Bryan King is underperforming right now. Kai-Wei Teng has been shifted back and forth between the pen and rotation, and has worn down from such heavy usage. The team has preferred to keep AJ Blubaugh in a multi-inning reliever role rather than stretch him out so that he could start.
The Astros could really use a righthanded leverage reliever to balance their lefthanded tandem of Steven Okert and Sousa in front of Hader. This is especially important if the starting pitching is still inconsistent and the team is unwilling to pay the freight for starters.
Which brings us to the biggest issue facing Houston at the deadline. They say they are going to be buyers, but what are they really buying?
Will the Astros buy the brand name players they need to make their team strong enough to be a legitimate contender in a soft American League, or will they shop in the bargain bins hoping to make the playoffs and rely on the old mantra ‘anything can happen in the postseason’ for their chances of success?
This deadline will represent a strong seller’s market. Prices are sure to be sky high as there are limited sellers. Top prospects will be at a premium as the spectre of a long-term lockout looms over the deadline and the rest of the season.
Will the Astros have the stomach to pay the price for the kinds of players they really need to be real contenders? Last season, they refused to pay the freight for starting pitching, instead choosing to bank on players returning from injury and it backfired hard.
Prices will not be lower this year.
Will Crane require Brown to perform the wild gymnastics needed to keep the team under the luxury tax? In the past, Crane has shown a willingness to exceed the tax for a player he believed could help push the team over the top. He did so last season with the acquisition of Carlos Correa, who played markedly better in Houston after the deadline than he did in Minnesota before.
Houston has a track record of being innovative, creative and aggressive at the deadline in many of the deadlines during the Golden Age. Can they find a way to do so again?
The reality is if the Astros chose to sell, they could get absolute king’s ransoms for some players and reload in the offseason. Understandably, no one wants to sell when they are just a game out of the division lead, even if they did just get back to .500 for the first time yesterday since they were 6-6.
The team has to understand the kind of hauls they could get as sellers, and their buy has to match the impact. They have to buy the kind of impact players that will shift them from AL mediocrity to AL power.
They don’t need to be reckless with the cost, but they cannot fear the cost either. They can’t be afraid to move guys off the major league roster, and reallocate funds to greater positions of need. They can’t be afraid to utilize positional flexibility.
While there may be some good deals in the bargain bin at TJ Maxx, they can’t be afraid to go into Nordstrom either. They make the money, they can pay the bills.
Are they willing to push in hard enough to truly be contenders in the AL, or is just getting to the party good enough?
Getting to the party with no chance of winning isn’t what I want to see. It’s not what most fans want to see, based on the cross section of fans I see online and who connect with AREA 45 on Sportsradio 610 each night. They want to buy to win, or sell to reload. They don’t want to surrender assets for a ‘maybe we make it into the Wild Card’ type of deadline decisions.
Dana Brown is fighting for his job. He cannot be reckless, but he cannot be hesitant either.
It’s gut-check time. We are about to see what the Astros are willing to stomach in the name of winning and “the window” always being open.
Read the full article here