In the days leading up to his first draft as Astros general manager, Dana Brown was back in his element.
“This is probably the fun part of the job because it’s something that I’m so used to,” Brown said at the time. “We’re going through all these names and we’re having conversations, and I’m bringing a lot of my philosophies and my thought processes to it, and so it’s actually exciting and it’s refreshing to be able to talk about some upcoming young players.”
The draft was a major reason Jim Crane hired Brown five months prior, and the first-year GM, who was and remains far more involved in the draft process than others in his position, set expectations a mile high.
Brown said he wanted to “nail” the 2023 draft, and to him, nailing the draft meant drafting four Major Leaguers.
“The average is usually two, I like to double that average, and we were able to do it in Atlanta, and I expect to do it here,” Brown said.
While three years is a bit early to fully judge an MLB draft class, Brown’s first with the Astros appears likely to fall short of his lofty goals.
First round pick Brice Matthews, the 28th overall pick of the draft, debuted last season, and has been on the Astros’ active roster the entirety of the 2026 season. Only 14 of the 27 players picked ahead of Matthews have appeared in a major league game, and his career 0.7 bWAR is higher than five of those picked ahead of him.
The Tigers selected Kevin McGonigle nine picks later, but he signed for almost $400k more than Matthews. The Astros had a limited draft pool meant they probably would not have been able to sign McGonigle if they drafted him.
The Astros third-round pick, Jake Bloss, made his Major League debut less than a year after he was drafted, second fastest in the class behind Paul Skenes. Hours before he was set to make his fourth start for the Astros, Brown traded him to the Blue Jays as the centerpiece of the Yusei Kikuchi deal.
Matthews and Bloss are currently the only members of Brown’s first draft class as Astros GM to make the major leagues, though that could change soon.
Sixth round pick Ethan Pecko was just named Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Month, and Brown identified him as an option to start this weekend in Arlington. Before the season, FanGraphs rated the 23-year-old right-hander as the Astros’ fourth best prospect, who projects as a number 4 or 5 starter.
It’s only a matter of time before Pecko will be the class’s third big leaguer, but a fourth seems unlikely, at least out of the day one or day two picks.
Second round pick Alonzo Tredwell is Brown’s best hope of the early picks, but he hasn’t pitched this season due to a shoulder injury. Tredwell has only thrown 157 minor league innings since being drafted. A back injury limited him to nine games during his final season at UCLA, and he underwent Tommy John Surgery in high school.
Fourth round pick Cam Fisher was released last season, while fifth round pick Chase Jaworsky is batting .177 in High-A with the Marlins after being traded as part of the package to land Jesus Sanchez.
Injuries have limited seventh round pick Joey Dixon to 7.1 innings in the Astros system, while eighth rounder Ryan Johnson and 10th rounder Austin Deming have been released.
11th round pick Nehomar Ochoa and 12th round pick Anthony Huezo, high school picks who signed for $300,000 and $397,000 respectively, are having good seasons in A-ball and have yet to celebrate their 21st birthday, while 14th rounder Jackson Nezuh has a 3.97 ERA in Double-A.
Nezuh is rated as one of the Astros top 15 prospects by multiple outside publications, while Huezo is inside the top 25.
There’s still a chance Brown’s first draft class as Astros GM produces four major leaguers. That would qualify as a successful draft, especially given the limited draft capital he had to work with. The bigger question, though, is whether anyone from the class develops into an impact major leaguer. Three years in, that outcome appears far less likely.
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