Cubs-Padres playoff rematch flips the script — and home field could change everything

October baseball always has a funny way of bringing old enemies together, only this time there’s a change of address. 

One year after the Chicago Cubs eliminated the San Diego Padres in three games at Wrigley Field in the 2025 National League Wild Card Series, the two teams will meet again in a rematch Tuesday night at Petco Park. 

The Cubs won five of six meetings between the teams this season, including a football score of 23-3 back in July. The Cubs also bring baseball’s most productive offense, an extraordinary defense, and the likely NL MVP in Pete Crow-Armstrong. 

But July 1 is in the past. The Padres caught fire during the final two months of the season, finishing with the best record in baseball over their final 59 games at 41-18, earning the right to have the sequel held at Petco Park. 

Here’s how the California Post views the matchup this season:

Cubs offense vs. Padres pitching

Advantage: Padres

The Cubs can rake. They led the majors in OPS and the NL in homers this season. Crow-Armstrong was a gold glove-caliber centerfielder and a 40-40 wrecking ball on offense. Alex Bregman, in his first season with the Cubs, has been bludgeoning opponents. He returned from taking a foul ball off the face by going 4-for-4 with two homers in Chicago’s final game of the regular season on Sunday. 

However, the Padres possess the weapon that everyone in the postseason wants: a lights out bullpen. It essentially shrinks the game from nine innings to six when you have three relievers capable of dominating the opposing lineup. 

If San Diego has questions, it’s their starting pitching. Michael King is expected to start Game 1 on Tuesday after a 3.21 ERA this season. The Padres just need him to get through six innings with the lead so they can hand the ball to Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez and Mason Miller to close it out. 

The Cubs’ offense has a simple mission: damage the Padres starter and knock him out of the game before the bullpen door swings open with any of the aforementioned relievers. 

Padres offense vs. Cubs pitching

Advantage: Padres

San Diego’s offense lacked a spark in the first half of the season. At one point they were 50-53 on July 23 and on the outside looking in of the MLB Playoffs. But then Fernando Tatis Jr. found his power, and Jackson Merrill started to look like the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up again.

At the same time the Padres offense flipped the power switch, the Cubs starting rotation started to sputter. Kevin Gausman, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline, has an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and his availability is in question. Matthew Boyd offers stability, as does Shota Imanga, but the Cubs’ greatest weapon might be their defense behind their starters. Chicago’s defense this season has been spectacular and that can only breathe confidence into their starting staff as the series develops. 

Four keys to the series

1. It’s Miller Time!

The absolute worst place the Cubs want to find themselves is trailing going into the top of the ninth inning. Because that’s when Miller, one of baseball’s most overpowering relievers, is at his absolute best. 

On the bright side, the Cubs have had previous success against Miller, but voluntarily making him the obstacle standing in the way between you and advancing to the NLDS is not the best way to spend the end of September. 

2. PCA’s MVP season needs to turn into October stardom

Crow-Armstrong’s 2025 postseason was forgettable: .185 with no extra-base hits in 29 plate appearances against San Diego and Milwaukee.

His 2026 regular season saw him become a 40-40 superstar and the likely NL MVP. PCA is a game-changer with his bat, legs, or glove. The playoffs is now his opportunity to introduce this year’s version of himself to the world. For the Cubs to advance, PCA will need to be the MVP of the series. 

3. Throw away the regular season

The Cubs can have confidence going into the Wild Card series knowing that they dominated the Padres during the regular season, but it can’t give them false security. 

As we’ve seen in the past, including when the Brewers swept the Dodgers in six games in the 2025 regular season, only to see Los Angeles sweep Milwaukee in four games in the NLCS, regular season success doesn’t translate to the postseason. 

The Padres team that lost five of six to Chicago before the All-Star break is not the same team that will be waiting at Petco Park. 

San Diego’s lineup improved dramatically, the pitching staff stabilized and the Padres arrive playing their best baseball.

The rearview mirror is useful. You just can’t drive while staring into it.

4. Make home field matter 

This is the most significant reversal from last October.

San Diego had to win at Wrigley. Now Chicago has to survive a Petco Park crowd that has turned the Gaslamp into one of baseball’s loudest October stages.

Home field doesn’t swing a bat, but in a three-game series, familiarity matters. So does adrenaline.

Prediction: 

The Cubs are talented both offensively and defensively to win this series, but the Padres arrive as the hotter team and have the better bullpen and home field advantage. 

Chicago took the series in three games last season, but the sequel feels like it’s San Diego’s turn.

Prediction: Padres in three

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