Somehow they did it. The San Diego Padres won 90-plus games for the third consecutive year, making the postseason each of those seasons. In his rookie year in the manager’s chair, Craig Stammen has continued this club’s regular season success (in spite of his pitfalls). It’s been a stellar 2026 campaign for the Friars, and it all comes down to this.
It’s easy to make the argument that this is the most defining game of the Padres’ chase towards the World Series. Since the inception of the Wild Card round in MLB, only two teams have ever come back from losing Game 1. In a three-game set, anything can happen. In a roaring Petco Park, with their ace on the mound, San Diego will need to earn the win over the Chicago Cubs.
Taking the mound
Matthew Boyd (CHC) v. Michael King (SD)
Despite getting knocked around by San Diego in both of his starts this season, Boyd has the potential to dominate in the series opener. Across two starts against the Friars (9.0 IP), Boyd has surrendered eight runs on 16 hits and two walks. His first start was a slugfest that San Diego eventually won. The second was a slugfest that Chicago won out.
The Padres’ lineup (108 at-bats) has a career .315/.339/.500 slash line versus the left-hander. Of hitters with 10-plus at-bats, Manny Machado has the most success with a .450 batting average and 1.255 OPS (20 ABs). The question for Chicago is whether Boyd can keep up. In the past, he’s been picked up by the Cubs’ stellar offense. If they can’t solve King, Boyd might easily be outdueled before anyone realizes what’s happening.
King has long been the obvious option for the Padres in this role. He pitched just one inning out of the bullpen in the 2025 playoffs after returning from the injured list late in the season. But King dominated in 2024. In Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series versus the Atlanta Braves, King struck out 12 batters over seven scoreless innings. If he can replicate that against Chicago tonight, it would be massive for San Diego’s chances.
Surprisingly, King hasn’t faced the Cubs yet this season. That could give him an edge over Chicago’s potent lineup. He’ll need to mix it up and keep hitters guessing to work deep into the game. King’s been incredible down the stretch, pitching to a 2.84 ERA in his last 15 starts (88.2 IP). That said, he’s coming off of a tough start against the Los Angeles Dodgers (5 ER, 4.0 IP). How he bounces back from that will determine how the series plays out.
Batter up!
The Padres’ lineup has consistently posted fantastic numbers throughout the final month of the season. The question is if that can continue. The Friars scored five or more runs in 16 games in September. The offense will need to keep that rolling to avoid another early exit at the hands of Chicago.
Sheets seems likely to retain sole DH duties since returning from the injured list. Campusano could take over some of that role if Freddy Fermin or Ethan Salas are behind the dish, but Sheets will be limited due to his foot still being somewhat injured. The slugger launched a mammoth home run (17) in the regular season finale on Sunday afternoon. His resurgence could be huge for the Friars.
Relief corps
It’s imperative that San Diego wins this game, meaning it’s all hands on deck until they advance or go home. Jason Adam, Griffin Canning, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Bradgley Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta and Randy Vásquez should be the options out of the ‘pen for the Padres.
However, Robbie Ray could easily fill out a bullpen role for San Diego. That seems unlikely, given his lack of working in bulk relief. Ray will seemingly be left off of the roster until a potential NLDS matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. The bullpen could easily be the turning point for San Diego in this series. In a three-game set, all the Padres need is a lead going into the seventh and a win is all but guaranteed.
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