The Phillies and the Braves appear to be postseason-linked in the same way that Martin Perez and I are — perhaps not inextricably, but… annoyingly? Yeah, that’s the right adverb.
On the plus side for the Braves, the Phillies are neither particularly good, nor did they really get a chance to set things up for a playoff round. Among the four possible teams the Braves could have conceivably faced in the first round, the Phillies are:
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Last in position player value (26th overall);
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First in pitching value (second overall); and
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Have less combined fWAR (35.7) than the Cubs have position player fWAR (37.8). The Padres are about three wins ahead in terms of fWAR, and the Cubs nine wins ahead, but the Diamondbacks finished about three wins behind. (I would’ve preferred to play the Diamondbacks.)
The Braves dominated the Phillies this year, but the Braves are also aren’t very good on paper (+5.4 position player fWAR, -8.2 pitching fWAR), and a lot of that split in record occurred because these two teams played seven of their 13 games when the Phillies were foundering and the Braves were destroying all (baseball) life on earth during the first two months of the season. So, eh.
The other consideration has to do with the narrative. In 2022, the Braves finished with 14 more in-the-standings wins than the Phillies, and went 11-8 against them during the season, but lost the NLDS, three games to one. In 2023, the Braves finished with 14 more -in-the-standings wins than the Phillies, and went 8-5 against them during the season, but lost the NLDS, three games to one.
In 2026, the Braves finished with six more in-the-standings wins than the Phillies, and went 9-4 against them during season, and… I dunno.
In reality, there’s not too much be drawn from whatever happens in a best-of-three, especially when these two teams aren’t really even all that different. But, it’d probably be less of a weight on my soul if there wasn’t even the opportunity for people to draw a line through three, instead of two, points of anecdata and present as incontrovertible proof of… something. Sure, the Braves could also pull off a pseudo-exorcism of a not-particularly-real demon by just winning a coin flip-ish best-of-three, but I don’t think that’d be as gratifying as “bUiLt FoR oCtObEr” is annoying.
Anyway, what do you think — are you in the, “Yes, let’s play the Phillies!” camp, or somewhere else?
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