Basketball fans rejoice. The Los Angeles Lakers play preseason basketball in just under three weeks. Although the roster transformation this offseason was exciting, fans are going into the post-LeBron James era cooking up a soup of intrigue, uncertainty and a sprinkle of skepticism.
My Septembers, like many of yours, are marked by an insatiable appetite for NBA basketball. Not to mention the Lakers embarking on the official start of the Luka Dončić era.
Inspired by our friends across the network — as much as we can use that word to describe Celtics fans — I want to try and predict some statistical benchmarks for each player on the Lakers’ roster. Some of these projections may seem impossible, others may be the key to a successful Lakers season. Let’s get right into it!
Luka Dončić wins MVP
I’m bending the rules a bit on this first one and am predicting an award rather than a stat.
Rookie of the Year, two scoring titles, six All-Star selections and a Finals appearance. There are only a few accolades left for Dončić as he enters the prime of his career. Boasting 33.5 points, 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds per game averages last year, Dončić made a late-season push for the award as the Lakers finished as the No. 4 seed.
According to Stathead, only one other player in NBA history had a season with those averages — Luka Dončić in the 2023-24 season, where he led Dallas to the Finals and finished third in MVP voting.
As a matter of fact, only eight players have ever earned at least six All-Star and All-NBA selections, two scoring titles and won Rookie of the Year: Dončić, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal, Kevin Durant, Allen Iverson and Bob Pettit. Dončić is the only one without an MVP.
If Los Angeles (yet again) outperforms its perceived national preseason projections and Dončić has a similar (or even better) season as last year, he must be seriously considered for the award.
Austin Reaves averages 25+ points per game
Austin Reaves is the defining example of a basketball success journey. He’s improved his overall production every single year since he signed to Los Angeles as an undrafted free agent. What’s one more year of improvement?
Before a Grade 2 calf strain sidelined him for a month midseason, Reaves was having an All-Star-level season. He was averaging 27.3 points, 6.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game in the 22 contests he played in before the injury took him out of the Lakers’ Christmas Day game against the Houston Rockets.
The catalyst? Either LeBron James or Dončić was sidelined for much of those games. Now James is no longer on the team and Austin moves prohibitively into that second creator role. We’ve already seen what he’s capable of as Luka’s No. 2. Now it’s just a matter of staying healthy.
Walker Kessler averages 17 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks per game
Many would say the success of this season hinges on how good Walker Kessler is relative to the $30 million the Lakers are paying him annually. He, after all, is one of the highest-paid big men to never make an All-Star team.
I’m not predicting that Kessler is going to achieve the first All-Star nod of his career, but what I am saying is that he, perhaps most of any of Los Angeles’ complementary players, will benefit from the creation and gravity of his star backcourt.
The prediction isn’t inconceivable if you consider what Kessler showed in only five games last season. His points average jumped from 11.1 to 14.4 per game, most notably due to the increased volume of 3-point attempts (0.6 to 1.6 per game). In 58 games the season prior, he averaged 12.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.
Couple those numbers with an improved shot diet playing alongside Reaves and Dončić and this prediction isn’t too far-fetched.
Quentin Grimes starts every game that he plays
Quentin Grimes comes in as a dynamic two-guard and the Lakers’ best point-of-attack defender. His importance as an off-ball movement shooter matters as much as his role on defense. His presence in the starting lineup is crucial alongside an at-times defense-latent backcourt.
Grimes has started 146 of the 318 regular season games he’s played in thus far in his career. The 66 games he started in his sophmore season with the New York Knicks were the most in his career.
Unless Los Angeles trades its few remaining assets for a starting-quality wing that matches Grimes’ skillset, I don’t see anyone taking his spot in the starting lineup. Not to mention, JJ Redick loves him.
Sandro Mamukelashvili puts up at least 50/40/70 shooting splits
Those shooting numbers are right around where Mamu is for his career (49.4/36.6/73.9), with the outlier in this prediction being a career year from beyond the arc. He shot 42.3% from three his rookie season in Milwaukee but on only 52 attempts compared to the 296 he put up last year. The deep-ball number is a best-case scenario in a Lakers offense I believe will be amongst the best in the league.
Collin Sexton continues his career-long streak averaging double-digit points
That’s right. Collin Sexton hasn’t averaged single-digit points in a single season of his eight-year career. Sexton is Los Angeles’s primary spark off the bench and will likely have the greenest light as a ball handler behind Reaves and Dončić.
Slot him around the 29 minutes per game he’s averaged throughout his career and there’s no reason he can’t extend his streak.
Jake LaRavia shoots 38% from three
The biggest gripe Lakers fans had with Jake LaRavia was his inability to deliver on the sharpshooting ability he was sold to have when he came in. How do you blame them, though? LaRavia shot 42.3% from deep the season before coming to LA, a number that fell 10 percentage points while donning the purple and gold. I think last season’s shooting slump was an outlier year.
Jarred Vanderbilt starts in at least 40 games
I, similar to my colleague Darius Soriano, still have hope that Jarred Vanderbilt can be an impactful player. Vanderbilt was one of the only players last season who, if you watched the games, made a tangible impact on defense, one that often won’t show on the stat sheet.
Vando is too good at too many things to not have a lasting role on the Lakers. According to BBall Index, he ranked No. 1 in the NBA in positional defensive versatility and seventh in overall defensive rebounding talent. Those two skills alone are the mark of an elite defender.
Maybe Redick will see something different in Vanderbilt this season with a gaping hole at power forward.
Ziaire Williams shoots 40% from three
For an extended version of my thoughts on Ziaire Williams having a breakout year from beyond the arc this year, look no further than my season preview. Surrounded by elite playmaking for the first time in his young career, Williams has the tools to be an above-average catch-and-shoot wing for the Lakers.
Matisse Thybulle has four games with at least 4 points, 4 rebounds and 4 stocks
In what I’m now dubbing a ‘Thybulle Four-for-Four’, this event has happened only nine times in Thybulle’s career, according to Stathead. Four of them in one season may be a stretch, but how else would I have come up with a better prompt?
Side note: after further research, James Harden leads active players with 48 of these games. Perhaps this ‘Four-for-Four’ was destined to be named after Harden.
Kevon Looney has a game with 15 rebounds
Although Kevon Looney is listed as the Lakers’ backup center, I don’t see many avenues for him to actually play many minutes as long as Kessler and Mamukelashvili are healthy. That being said, there could be a game where either of the two is out and Looney shows a flash of his prime self in that game.
Jaden Hardy has a game with at least 20 points
An underdiscussed aspect of Los Angeles’s offseason transformation is the bolstering of its depth. There’s a world where Jaden Hardy is either off the Lakers’ roster or is slotted in as the 15th man. Hardy is undeniably better than even some 12th men that have come through the team in recent years. He’s always been a threat to post the occasional high-scoring game.
Bronny James has multiple games with six assists and three steals
Bronny James is making a strong case to take another leap in Redick’s rotation next season. Last year, he showed his improved point-of-attack defensive acumen and made noticeable improvements as a primary ball handler. Coming in as the fourth guard behind Sexton, James may just pop off in a few games where he plays a good amount of minutes.
Adou Thiero finishes top-40 in the league in made dunks
Adou Thiero comes into this season looking to step into a much bigger role. While his best path to the rotations comes on the defensive end, he’s shown through an injury-riddled rookie season and the NBA Summer League that he’s an intense, acrobatic dunker. Zion Williamson was 40th in the league in made dunks last season with 77.
Cameron Carr has a game with five made 3-pointers
We still aren’t exactly sure how much of a fixture rookie Cameron Carr will be for the Lakers this season, but he has a good enough skillset to see some minutes. He made five 3-pointers five times with Baylor last season and showed impressive perimeter shooting over the summer.
Dalton Knecht scores 30 points in a game
I’ll be the first to admit how wild this one is. If I had written this ahead of last season, maybe it’d be a bit more believable. But wouldn’t it be so Dalton Knecht of Dalton Knecht to have a random 30-point game this year? (Who’s to say it’s even with the Lakers?)
You can follow Connor on Twitter at @cmorenoNBA.
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