We all know that Cade Cavalli is a top of the rotation arm who offers Nats fans a glimpse of what quality pitching looks like. However, there is another arm that is emerging behind him that is doing that as well. Andrew Alvarez is not Cade Cavalli, but he has been rock solid and is only getting better as the season goes along.
Yesterday, Alvarez had the best start of his career and made a statement that he should be in the rotation next year. The 27 year old lefty threw 7 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit while striking out 8 and walking 4. It was the first time he completed 7 innings in his MLB career and a continuation of the great work he has done lately.
Honestly, we saw everything that makes Alvarez an effective pitcher. Against an all right-handed lineup, Alvarez’s curveball was superb. He got 10 whiffs on 20 swings with his curve and when batters did make contact, it was not very hard. The curveball was the signature piece of his arsenal, but showed his fastball enough to keep hitters honest.
There were times where he was nibbling too much early in the game. In fact, all four of his walks came in the first two innings. However, the southpaw settled in and started dominating the Halos lineup. He is proving that he belongs in the rotation moving forward.
Alvarez was not a hyped prospect at all, which makes his success even more remarkable. Across 102 innings this season, Alvarez has a 3.35 ERA with 99 strikeouts. He has also racked up 2.3 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR. Both of those numbers are actually better than Jake Bennett, who the Nats infamously traded away last offseason. Alvarez has not gotten the hype that Bennett has but he has arguably been more effective.
Like Cavalli, we are also seeing Alvarez improve down the stretch. Since the start of August, Alvarez has a 2.44 ERA in 44.1 innings across 8 starts. For me, the most encouraging part is the innings total. In this stretch, he is averaging over 5.5 innings per start. A big concern with Alvarez is that he does not go deep into games, but he is answering those questions.
Moving forward, what should we expect from Alvarez? Well, the advanced stats are somewhat split on the lefty. His FIP is actually lower than his ERA at 3.27. However, his xERA of 4.16 is slightly less encouraging. His xFIP sits somewhere in the middle at 3.80.
If Alvarez can settle in as a back of the rotation arm who has an ERA somewhere in the high 3’s, that would be a big organizational win. With the quality of his breaking balls, there is certainly a path to doing that.
The walks are the one thing I am concerned about though. Alvarez really emphasizes avoiding the middle of the plate. However, that can lead to nibbling. His 11% walk rate is proof of that. While this approach does lead to walks, it does help him keep the ball in the yard. Alvarez has allowed just 5 homers in 102 innings, which is very low.
We will have to see if he can sustain this level of home run avoidance over a larger sample, but he does things that suggest he can somewhat maintain this. His ground ball rate of 49.3% is in the 83rd percentile and his 5.4% barrel rate allowed is in the 84th percentile. Keeping the ball on the ground and off the barrel leads to fewer homers.
With how he has pitched, I think Andrew Alvarez has locked up a rotation spot. We still have to see if he can keep it long term, but he will be one of the team’s 5 best options next year. He is just too crafty and too effective.
Guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker make me slightly hesitant to go all-in on Alvarez, but you have to love what you are seeing. To be fair to Alvarez, Irvin and Parker never had seasons quite like this either.
I do not think Alvarez has the fastball quality to be in the front 3 of a rotation. However, you can do a lot worse than him in the back of a rotation. His breaking balls are so sharp and he keeps the ball in the yard. He can give you 5 solid innings on a consistent basis, and lately he is showing that he can go further than that as well.
It has not been a pretty year for Nats pitching, but we have found a couple answers in the rotation. Cade Cavalli looks like a top of the rotation starter and Andrew Alvarez is now emerging as a number 4. I have always had some lingering doubts about Alvarez, but he just keeps proving me wrong.
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