Paul Skenes was in the running for best pitcher on the planet after his 1.97 ERA in 187.2 IP last season which netted him the NL Cy Young Award. But here in his age-24 season, his 3.79 ERA on the season has raised questions about just how great he is and will continue to be. Now, he still has a sub-3.00 FIP (2.96), but even I’ll admit that after a 1.96 ERA and 2.40 FIP through the first two seasons of his career (55 GS 320.2 IP) even I’m wondering who he’s going to be going forward. Still, obviously, a great pitcher, but still on track to be one of the best ever?
Well, the way baseball works is that it usually doesn’t work out that way. And pitcher identities shift all the time.
Take, for example, Skenes’ opponent in the game 1 matchup: Logan Webb. Still the Giants’ ace, but maybe he’s no longer one of the top 5 pitchers in the sport as he has been the past few years. Now, admittedly, some of my Giants fandom is informing that (maybe he’s more accurately a top-10 since 2022), but all I’m really trying to do is point out that Logan Webb might be entering a new phase of his career just as Skenes might be.
So, is this a matchup of two pitchers heading in opposite career directions or figuring out what’s the next adjustment they need to make in order to continue their success? Both are being hit harder than they had previously, and this could all be a matter of ABS. Webb has lost some stolen strikes and now the challenge system allows some called pitches to be reclassified. Skenes is probably experiencing a similar squeeze. His walk rate is up from 2.08 BB/9 in years 1 & 2 to 2.54 this season. But, y’know, he’s still a 4-WAR pitcher at the moment. Logan Webb, despite missing a bunch of starts with injury is a 3-WAR pitcher. They’re both still good, but mid-phase.
In another phase shift, the Pirates, perennial non-contenders, raised hopes for a decent chunk of this season that they might be Wild Card contenders (32-28 through May 31). The Giants, of course, erased all hope that Buster Posey would bring them out of the doldrums to be a competitive franchise again. The Pirates might not be a Wild Card team in 2026, but they appear setup to finish strong and be in the conversation again next year. If the San Francisco Giants went away tomorrow, nothing would be lost and no future plans ruined. (In this scenario, all the players resurface in other organizations.)
22-yaer old Esmerlyn Valdez has 16 homers in 65 games, a 14.7% walk rate and… ahem… 37.5% strikeout rate. But also, a .290 ISO / .535 slug. That’s fun, right? Konorro Griffin has been out since July (and will miss this series), but a 20-year old up the middle defender with a .276/.332/.404 line in 247 PA is a promising early return. They’ve gotten good performances from free agents (Ryan O’Hearn, reliever Gregory Soto) and trade pieces (Brandon Lowe) and, offensively, they’ve scored the fifth-most runs in the sport (669; though, just a 101 wRC+). They’re also the #6 pitching staff by fWAR (17.0). They don’t allow home runs and they strikeout a lot of batters (#4 in K/9 in MLB).
Pittsburgh is 6 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and are definitely longshots. The Giants have been dreadful on the road (24-45), but now that they project to lose fewer than 100 games, maybe they’ll be more relaxed and, therefore, competitive? Hard to say.
Series Overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (57-81) at Pittsburgh Pirates (67-71)
Where: PNC Park | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
When: Tuesday & Wednesday at 3:40pm PT, Thursday at 9:35am PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Tuesday: Logan Webb (RHP 8-8, 3.72 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (RHP 9-11, 3.79 ERA)
Wednesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 8-13, 4.25 ERA) vs. Jared Jones (RHP 2-6, 4.83 ERA)
Thursday: Blade Tidwell (RHP 0-1, 4.54 ERA) vs. TBD
Prediction time
Bryan Reynolds is having his best overall season (2.5 fWAR) since maybe 2022 (2.9)? His power numbers are way down (a .159 ISO in 2026 compared to .184 for his career) but he’s walking like crazy (13.1%) and just getting on base (.369 — 18th in MLB). However, he had a terrible August (.238/.322/.295 in 27 games, 118 PA) and in the last 5 seasons, he hasn’t been all that great against the Giants (21-for-100, 4 HR, 20 RBI since the start of 2022). But if the Pirates are to make one last push for a playoff spot, he’s going to have to be a part of that. So, my prediction will be that he heats up against the Giants, helping the Pirates win at least one game in this series.
Logan Webb has started just 2 games at PNC Park in his career and he has a 2.25 ERA in 12 IP with 16 K just 1 walk allowed and 0 home runs allowed. Both of those starts came in 6:40pm local start times as this game 1 start will be tonight. I bring that up because, this season especially, his day/night ERA split is stark: 2.31 ERA in the day, 4.98 ERA at night. I predict that the time of day won’t be an issue and he’ll have a 6-inning, 2-run game.
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