Will Gavin Williams be an ace or will he be a two of clubs?
Last week was one of the most disappointing starts of Gavin Williams’ 2026 season. He lasted one and a third innings and gave up five runs against the lowly Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Now, I don’t say it was his most disappointing start of the season because the Guardians miraculously found a way to come back and win. No, my vote for his most disappointing start of the year is August 14th’s outing against the Padres in which he went four and a third and gave up five runs at a time the Guardians’ desperately needed a win against a decent team to cement themselves in the wildcard race.
Well, here we are, a couple weeks later, with the Guardians desperately needing a win against a decent team to cement themselves in the wildcard race in tonight’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field.
Williams has had moments of absolute brilliance this season with an 11.77/2.83 K/BB/9. But, somehow, inexplicably, he has surrendered an 18.8% home run-per-fly-ball rate and a career-high 12% barrel rate and a career high 46% hard-hit rate. Essentially, Williams doesn’t often get hit but when he does, it’s hit HARD and FAR.
I am sure Gavin Williams wants to be paid like an ace when he reaches free agency in 2030. I am sure his agent Scott Boras will not allow him to extend with the Guardians and avoid a potential free agency pay-out, and I am sure both will argue that he is the kind of horse that a team can rely on in a playoff run.
Tonight is a chance for Williams to prove that these beliefs are true. The Guardians will face Cy Young-contender Dylan Cease tomorrow and there is no debating that Cease IS the kind of pitcher Cleveland needs Williams to be. It’s incredibly crucial for the Guardians to secure the opening game of this three-game series as they attempt to fend off the Blue Jays and other marginal contenders for that third wildcard spot.
Williams and Patrick Bailey need to adapt quickly to whatever gameplan the Blue Jays attempt to put into effect tonight. Parker Messick, who has emerged as the true staff ace, has shown a remarkable ability to respond to early effectiveness by other teams with adjusting his pitch mix and location to counter their plans. The same dynamic needs to take place for Williams tonight.
You can see in every interview how much Gavin cares about winning. He’s shown signs of absolute dominance plenty of times this season – time to put it all together and lead this Guardians’ team into a successful September run as the final month of the season opens.
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