Rivalries in the NBA might not carry the same weight they once did. Perhaps that’s because, from a Phoenix Suns perspective, we haven’t won a playoff game since 2023. And for rivalries to truly exist, postseason battles usually have to come with them.
But getting to the postseason is a challenge in itself, and part of that means handling your division. Even then, division rivalries don’t carry the same importance they once did. Sure, you still see your division opponents more than any other teams in the league. Four games against each of the other four teams means 16 games on the schedule are tied directly to the division.
Division standings haven’t truly mattered in the same way since 2014–15. That was the season the Portland Trail Blazers won 51 games, which was only the sixth-highest total in the Western Conference. Because they won the Northwest Division, however, they received a higher playoff seed than both Memphis and San Antonio, who each won 55 games. The Board of Governors changed that rule the following offseason.
Division standings still matter to a certain extent, though. They remain part of the playoff tiebreaker process. The hierarchy goes:
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Division winner over a non-division winner, even if the teams are in different divisions
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Division record, but only if the tied teams are in the same division
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Record against postseason eligible teams in the conference
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Record against postseason eligible teams in the opposite conference
But alas, we really don’t care about division standings. If you’re somebody who likes to sprinkle a little movie money on NBA futures bets, though, they do come in handy. And I think there’s some opportunity here.
The Phoenix Suns began the offseason projected to finish third in the Pacific Division, and that’s not where the Bright Side community believes they belong. In our latest survey, 49% of the community picked Phoenix to win the division, finishing ahead of both the Lakers and the Warriors, who previously had better odds than the Suns.
Those odds have since shifted, and Phoenix now sits second, with the Lakers holding the best odds to win the Pacific.
That’s where I see some opportunity if you’re someone who likes placing a few preseason bets. It’s something I enjoy, especially this time of year when there isn’t much else happening. Why not throw $5 on the Suns to win the division and potentially have something to be very happy about next April? Because I believe Phoenix can absolutely win it.
The Lakers lack continuity and feel like a team that has been patched together like Frankenstein in an effort to build something around Luka Doncic. We still don’t know if it’s going to work, and that uncertainty creates opportunity. There’s also the reality that the Lakers are always overbet. Their fan base has a way of moving the lines.
So do what you will with this information. There’s opportunity there if you want to seize it. Of course, all of this is predicated on the belief that the Suns will actually win the Pacific Division, which clearly isn’t a guarantee This is also the part of the offseason where I probably find myself a little too optimistic and talk myself into believing the Suns might be better than they actually are. On paper, it makes sense to me. Which can be dangerous. Why? Because I talked myself into the idea that this team would win 35 games last season and more than 50 in each of the previous two seasons.
The lesson here is simple. I don’t know shit. The offseason has a way of doing that to you. You buy into a storyline, then time and overanalysis start reinforcing it until eventually you’ve talked yourself into the most extreme version of that belief. We’ll know more once the season tips off on October 21 in Portland against the Trail Blazers.
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