There are 41 games left to play in the 2026 Orioles season and although they continue to flirt with the fringes of the wild card race, the strong probability is that they are not going to make it into the postseason. It is going to have to be next year’s O’s in whom we pin our hopes of seeing a good team emerge again. We can be pretty sure that Mike Elias was already thinking about this when he made the trades that he made going into last week’s trade deadline.
There are a couple of assumptions here before I can even start to think about it all. One is that Mike Elias will stay in place as the president of baseball operations of the Orioles. If he doesn’t, a new person is probably way more likely to make some different decisions regarding whether or not to engage in a little “slaughter the sacred cow” with some once-promising Orioles prospects who are now kinda-or-very-disappointing major leaguers. They wouldn’t be sacred any more to the successor. Elias is a hard enough guy to guess. Someone new coming in would be even tougher.
Another assumption is that there will be a 2027 MLB season at all. There is going to be an ownership-imposed lockout of the players when the CBA expires. There will be a lot of brinksmanship that is grim for baseball fans – and even more grim for those whose professional obligations involve writing about baseball – when these negotiations take place during that lockout, which commissioner Rob Manfred explicitly likened to pulling out a .22 and pointing it at the players. Being a doomer about that isn’t the point here.
With those out of the way, my questions are: Who is here now who should still have the same role next year? Who shouldn’t be here but Elias doesn’t show any sign of moving on? These thoughts focus on the current 26-man roster plus a select set of guys who are on the injured list.
Will be back and I’m happy about it
There have been ups and downs for players in this group as the season has gone along, some injury-related, some performance-related. I think they all are relatively self-evident inclusions on the feel-good list except for Holliday, whose injuries and downs lasted for longer than some others. He’s taken a step forward this year that’s been more apparent as he’s gotten farther past his hamate bone break and surgery, though he’ll still feel disappointing for a #1 pick if he can’t take another big step forward next year.
Also, while I did put Cano on this list, I am not actually capable of thinking a good reliever this year will be good again next year. So, “happy” is a little strong. But he’s staying on this list anyway.
I can’t imagine Elias moving on from them and I’m not happy about it
This is the entire current bullpen except for Cano, who I discussed above, and Andrew Kittredge, who will be a free agent. I don’t know whether Elias is going to bring all of these guys back next year, but what I am reasonably confident about is that he’s going to find guys who are remarkably similar to them, no matter how much you or I think he should try to sign or trade for some real players who might actually be good for the baseball team he operates.
It’s not that I think every one of these pitchers will be bad next year. A couple of them might be fine or even good for stretches of time or possibly for the whole season. However, it’s a problem when a good month or two convinces the team, or at least the manager, to keep relying on a guy in key spots when he has spent a while showing he shouldn’t get those key spots. This has happened to some degree with Garcia, Nunez, and Wolfram as the year has gone along.
Also thrown in here is O’Neill, who only started to claw his way out of the negatives for WAR in the second July of a three-year contract. He’s going to need to sustain this for the rest of the season for me to feel anything other than glum about the idea of his return. As of this writing, he still sits at -0.1 bWAR since joining the Orioles. This was the first multi-year contract Elias handed out, and it’s not gone well.
The sacred cows
As we all know by now, one of the problems for the 2026 Orioles, which was also a problem for the 2025 Orioles, is that Elias constructed the roster in such a way that his big money draft boys were going to be a key part of the whole strategy. You could also put Heston Kjerstad in this category to some extent, though he hasn’t even played well enough or been healthy enough to get a major league-level chance after bombing out last season, so for me he’s not worth a bullet point.
Beavers is the least valuable Oriole this season on account of his not hitting and also getting terrible reads on balls into the outfield. Mayo spent much of the year in the negatives for WAR before finding his footing in July. Cowser has had one good month, two okay ones, and two terrible ones so far; he’s striking out 30% of the time this season. It’s extremely difficult to have a good season that way. At least he’s grading out nicely on the defensive side, which isn’t something I will take for granted after some of what we’ve seen out there this year.
Does Elias have a coaching staff who can make something out of these guys? Failing that, does he have the guts to build a roster that doesn’t include them? This could possibly include the guts to trade them for whatever they’re now worth, recognizing that it’s possible they will break out somewhere else and make him look like an idiot for not being able to get that consistent quality out of them. On that note, Kyle Stowers has put up 4.9 bWAR the last two seasons with Miami.
Gunnar Henderson
Craig Albernaz recently said that the Orioles need Gunnar Henderson to be Gunnar Henderson. I understand that sentiment completely. He’s a category all by himself. He will be back. I don’t know what is wrong with him so I don’t have any idea whether this will be a good thing or not. The Orioles needed him to play like a star to go somewhere this year and what we’ve got instead is .214/.297/.390. With my apologies for speaking in meme, my current feeling about this is: Screaming, crying, throwing up.
Have you voted in this week’s poll about Henderson yet?
This year’s version of 2025 Jeremiah Jackson
2025 Jeremiah Jackson is when you get a player who is a relatively new scrap heap arrival to the organization, he plays well enough in the minors and the MLB team is chaotic enough that he’s needed, he makes a good first impression on fans, then… well, for Jackson, we are seeing what it’s worth to try to count on a guy like that into a full season the next year. Encarnacion-Strand has four homers in 20 games and has looked okay on defense, if Statcast Outs Above Average numbers are to be believed.
A good team doesn’t bring them back
They need a better backup catcher to Basallo than Narváez and Povo. They need a better fourth outfielder and definitely a better regular starting outfielder than Franklin and Taveras. They need a better utility infielder/bench bat than Jackson. I suspect Elias will still have us watching Narváez and Taveras as part of next season’s Plan A bench.
Should be back, I’m nervous about health
Although we saw this past offseason that Elias might move on with surprising permanence from an injury-checkered player (Grayson Rodriguez traded for one year of Taylor Ward,) I think we’ve also seen as this season has gone along that the Orioles don’t have a backup plan for Bautista and Westburg and so they’re going to keep trying unless these guys arms literally fall off. I am not hopeful for Bautista after elbow and shoulder surgeries. For Westburg, I’m not hopeful either, but that’s mostly because the Orioles never make me feel hopeful.
As far as Helsley goes, I doubt he opts out of his contract after his injured list stints and performance this season, so we’re stuck with hoping for the best.
Qualifying offer-worthy free agent
Through the end of May, the idea of Rogers receiving a qualifying offer from the Orioles did not seem to be a good one. Since June 1, Rogers has been building the case to get one and then get a substantial free agent contract as well. We’re now talking a 12 start sample where he’s allowed just a 2.41 ERA. If something close to this continues through to the end of the season, he’s going to hit the market for a nice payday. I don’t think the Orioles will be the one to give it to him.
Free agents who require better replacements than themselves
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Andrew Kittredge (team contract option)
There are more expensive Orioles who didn’t work out this year than Mountcastle, but I think if I was David Rubenstein, that would be the one having me most wondering, “Why did Mike Elias spend millions of my dollars on this guy?”
My offseason shopping list
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One starting pitcher as good as money or prospects can buy
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One low-ceiling starting pitcher who turns out better than Bassitt and Charlie Morton
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Two relievers who can actually be trusted as 8th or 9th inning guys
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The 2027 version of a James McCann-type backup catcher
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One outfielder who can capably play CF or LF at OPACY and also be an average-or-better bat
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One figurative set of bubble wrap for Westburg
I mentioned above that I’m not interested in doomerism about the 2027 season happening at all. I stand by that. Having said that, it’s a strong likelihood that the lockout will encompass all of December and January plus some of February, even if the season ends up happening for 162 games and a more-or-less on-schedule Opening Day. There will be no movement of players on the 40-man roster during the lockout, just like we saw during the last round of negotiations.
Elias is really only going to have November and then like a week in (hopefully) February to do all of the things he needs to do. He will need to have a strong plan and act on it quickly. He hasn’t been doing well with strong plans in the last few seasons, though he did at least act fairly quickly last offseason, so at least there’s that.
Low-ceiling starting pitcher, one trusted back-end reliever, and catcher were all under control until Elias subtracted from next year’s team with his trade deadline maneuvering. He’s going to have to overcome that with this offseason’s moves. I’m not confident in him.
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