To set some context: the Braves have a 5.5-game lead in the division, playoff odds north of 96 percent, and MLB’s third-best record. They don’t need to chase wins.
But, in the same vein, they didn’t need to chase wins in 2025 (although it wasn’t ever quite as comparable, as playoff odds dipped below 90 percent after their poor start), with playoff odds well above 50 percent through much of April and May. Except, eventually, that period of not needing to ran out, and by the time they did need to, they were playing catchup while the roster was depleted from injuries and the like.
So, you’d think they wouldn’t make this mistake again. And maybe they think the difference is that they aren’t the ones playing catchup, at least not right now. But, we’ve seen this story before. We saw it at times in 2022-2023, though the team was so good that it didn’t matter, which perhaps informs the current feelings of potential overconfidence. We saw it in 2024, in which the Braves were ultimately vindicated, albeit on a bit of a razor’s edge. And then we saw it last year, with awful results.
Which, I thought, informed the new philosophy we saw in April and May of this year. Walt Weiss even said, “chasing wins.” Last night, Walt Weiss said they had to get through the entire game with four pitchers, two of whom were JR Ritchie and Carlos Carrasco. That’s apparently why Ritchie was left in for 100 pitches despite another mediocre outing that actually improved after he and the defense turned a four-run lead into a one-run deficit, and why Carrasco was left in to blow a lead in the seventh… but to be very clear: when you are in a position that you’ve decided that only four pitchers, including Ritchie and Carrasco, are available to help you win a game, you have already decided, before first pitch, that you aren’t chasing this particular win.
On the flip side, we got to see the ultimate in win chasing from the other dugout. The Padres used three pitches to get their first six outs of the game. They used an opener, something the Braves just don’t care about doing despite their unsettled rotation situation and a bunch of guys that could probably use the help. When their listed bulk guy struggled, they just pulled him, and put in a different guy. To be very clear: the Padres went to another pitcher already down 3-0, while leverage was still medium-high, because they presumably wanted to try to win this game. And then, they used Mason Miller for two innings — something they hadn’t done since acquiring him, because again, they presumably actually wanted to win this game.
So, are the Braves done chasing wins? We know they were chasing them earlier, both from what we saw and from the things they actually said. But these days, we’re seeing the 2022-2025 approach to pitching management, and the post-game sound bites are all about availability instead of, “Hell yeah, let’s try to win a game.”
Last year, I kept having to add text like, “Even if it’s not right now, the Braves are eventually going to try to win as hard as they can, or else their margin for not doing so will completely evaporate.” And then I stopped, because they imploded with a bunch of close losses in June and that was that. I don’t want to do that again, but if they keep acting this way, there won’t be much of a choice.
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