We have reached the 2026 NBA playoffs and it’s time to start handicapping Round 1 series angles. Hopefully, most of you are familiar with my work throughout the NFL season writing here on Yahoo, but the truth is that I am mainly an NBA guy handicapper. I even named my dog — a Great Pyrenees and Poodle mix — LeBron.
In betting, I approach the NBA exactly the same as my NFL. My goal is from the time my writeup is posted on the website until the time the game starts, that the bet and odds I beat the consensus closing line. Closing-line value (CLV) is the priority in my process, and because I mainly bet on NBA main markets that have tons of money traded on them, the pre-tipoff line becomes a very efficient measure of value.
Hopefully, the stellar NFL results will translate over to the hardwood. Here at Yahoo during the NFL season, I hit over 60% of my bets in write-ups (38-25), with average odds of -112 (52.8% breakeven rate) and grading at 1 unit per writeup, finished +11 units.
With Round 1 set to get underway on Saturday, here are a few futures bets to place now to get ahead.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 6 Atlanta Hawks (+240) vs. No. 3 New York Knicks (-300)
While it’s important to explore the basketball angle, this is pretty a straightforward (yet nerdy) math-based handicap. Follow me here …
The Knicks opened Game 1 as 5.5-point favorites against the spread and -210 on the moneyline. My first step is to find the true probability of a win based on the moneyline price, but remove the house cut of betting into MGM’s price (the vig). The true odds were -185, which translates to a 65% chance to win Game 1 — which means the Hawks inversely would have a 35% chance to win Game 1. Let’s hold this number to be true for Games 1,2,5 and 7 — which would all be played at Madison Square Garden.
The next step is to calculate the win probability for games in Atlanta. Using a playoff-weighted home-court advantage, the Hawks should be 2-point favorites in Games 3, 4 and possibly 6, which means a win probability of about 55% Atlanta and 45% Knicks.
Using (nerdy terms incoming) binomial distribution and recursive probability formulas to determine each team’s chances are to win four games first, the Knicks have a 64.12% chance to win the series and the Hawks 35.88%. Translating these to American betting odds, it shows a -179 Knicks and +179 for Hawks.
Getting the Hawks at +240 for the series, using the Game 1 prices as an anchor to math this out, is objectively a fantastic edge.
From a basketball perspective, Dyson Daniels is the perfect lengthy and physical guard to take the lead assignment on Jalen Brunson. Daniels has proven to give Brunson fits and the efficiency numbers against the Hawks bear that out. Jalen Johnson will take the first assignment on Karl Anthony-Towns, and Onyeka Okongwu will guard Josh Hart, leaving him open from 3 to add extra rim protection. The Hawks will allow Hart to beat them from deep.
On the offensive end, the Hawks have so many point-of-attack players that the Knicks will have nowhere to hide Brunson. Whether it is CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Johnson or Daniels, they have four players who can attack off the dribble and a big in Okongwu who can space the floor and shoot. The matchup shows why the Hawks rested all of their stars and did not prioritize seeding, because the six seed offered a better matchup than the five seed for Atlanta.
From a player prop perspective, Josh Hart over on points and 3s, and Okongwu over on 3s made are definitely going to be looks for me.
Bet: Hawks to win series (+240)
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers (+475) vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets (-650)
Using the same math process as above, this series price should be closer to -1500.
Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are two looming variables hanging over this series, as it’s still unknown if one or both of these players will play in it; Doncic is dealing with a hamstring injury and Reaves with an oblique injury. While getting to a Game 7 would make this sentence sound stupid, I actually think the Rockets going on the road to start this series creates an advantage.
It is very likely that Doncic and/or Reaves, if they were to return, would do so in the middle of the series. The Rockets will have a strong health edge for the first two games in Los Angeles, and will possibly return back home to Houston with a series lead before Doncic and Reaves return. The Lakers took two games in a row against Houston after the All-Star break when the Lakers started surging. Let’s remember the Rockets let go of fourth-quarter leads in both of those games, they were very tight and the Lakers are unlikely to be in mid-season form while returning one or two players from injury into a physical playoff environment. The Rockets ended the season hot, and they are the team to back here.
It’s common in the betting space to think no -650 line provides value because it is too expensive. I vehemently disagree with that. If the expected hit rate exceeds the implied odds, the bet is good no matter the price.
Bet: Rockets to win series (-650)
Title value bet: OKC Thunder to win the NBA Finals (+135)
While not a series bet, now is the time to bet on the Thunder to repeat as NBA champions. When the NBA regular season ended on Sunday, the Denver Nuggets beating the San Antonio Spurs was one of the last games to conclude. This forced Denver into the No. 3 seed and being on the opposite side of the Western Conference playoff bracket as Oklahoma City.
Now it is guaranteed that the Thunder will only face one of the Spurs, Nuggets or Timberwolves in the playoffs (the three biggest threats in the West), and it would be in the Western Conference finals. Simply getting to that series would make the Thunder an odds-on favorites to win the title.
This is a fantastic price to bet now, and one that won’t be available in a few days and likely for the rest of the season unless the Thunder find themselves losing late in a series.
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