Every day this week, the NBC Sports NBA writing crew is breaking down the league’s individual postseason awards and giving you their thoughts and predictions. We’re starting the week with the big one: MVP. It’s a tight race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic, so who are we taking?
Most Valuable Player
Kurt Helin, NBC Sports Lead NBA Writer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
This is the deepest MVP field I can remember — Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double and is going to be third on my ballot. Which is insane. This race comes down to Victor Wembanyama and SGA, and it’s close. Very close.
In my mind, three things separate Gilgeous-Alexander and get him my vote. One is minutes: As of Monday, Gilgeous-Alexander has played 353 more total minutes — remember Wemby was on a minutes limit when he raced back from injury to make sure he had time to reach the league’s ridiculous 65 games threshold. SGA is averaging 33.5 minutes per game, so he has been on the court for the equivalent of 10 more total games this season. That matters. Second is efficiency, and as efficient on offense as Wembanyama is, and for all his gravity, Gilgeous-Alexander is just slightly more efficient, which is incredible for a guard who creates most of his own shots.
Third, SGA is about to lead the Thunder to being only the third team to have 65+ wins in back-to-back seasons, joining the Jordan-era Bulls and the Curry/Durant Warriors — and this year the Thunder did it without their second-best player, Jalen Williams, for much of the season. That’s leadership from SGA. (One final note, Wembanyama is right that defense should matter, and he is the better defender, but Gilgeous-Alexander is having his best defensive season and deserves All-Defense consideration; that gap is just not large enough to put Wemby over the top.)
Jay Coucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Even with Jalen Williams missing over half the season, the Thunder will again finish mid-60s in wins because of SGA’s metronomic brilliance. 55% FG and 67% true shooting are preposterous marks for a self-creating volume-scoring guard.
On a per-minute basis, Victor Wembanyama has a case as SGA’s equal for impact, but Shai playing close to 400 more minutes than Wembanyama tips this award.
Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports Fantasy basketball lead analyst: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
While there are multiple players with good cases to win the award, including Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, Victor Wembanyama and Jaylen Brown, Gilgeous-Alexander has been every bit as consistent (and excellent) as he was last season. He’s averaging 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game with 55.1/38.0/88.1 shooting splits. Despite the heavy usage and attention he receives from opposing defenses, SGA has been close to a 50/40/90 player, and that’s with multiple Thunder contributors missing extended time due to injury.
Eric Samulski, MLB/NBA Writer, NBC Sports: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
This seems close to a lock at this point. We can make separate arguments for who should win this award, but that’s probably SGA, too. Nikola Jokic was probably the favorite before his knee injury, but he has not looked like the same player since he’s come back, and his defense has been even less impactful than it was before, if that’s possible. The Thunder continued to roll along even with Jalen Williams missing half the season, and other key contributors like Isaiah Hartenstein also being out for extended periods of time. Make all the arguments you want about how SGA plays, but he delivers time after time.
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