If you had just a little bit less than five months, you win the prize. The question? How long can a pretty good team last with no bullpen? With smoke and mirrors and grit and perseverance, they held in there for a long time. The bullpen was never good, but for most of the year it was largely functional. My concern all along ended up being well founded. The dynamic offense was covering up a lot of weaknesses. Through the whole first half of the season, the team largely wasn’t playing any “standard” type of game where the team is leading after six and hands it to the bullpen. When you pair that with a mountain of injuries, no pitcher really ever settled into any kind of role.
Then, around midseason Jacob Webb got insanely hot. He was the less heralded of the two offseason bullpen acquisitions. Phil Maton, long since gone to injury after months of ineffectiveness, was the one with the pedigree. Maton has a contract that runs past this year. I’m sure Cub fans will welcome him back next year with open arms and minds. Alas, that’s a conversation for another day. But Webb, he dominated for a couple of months there. And for a second time, this team covered for their ineptitude in the bullpen.
To give credit where credit is due, the Cubs probably found a half dozen guys this year who I find really intriguing. The problem was, every single one of them got overexposed. They all ended up in bigger roles and in bigger situations than was intended for them. Some of them succumbed to injury, some to ineffectiveness and only one or two remain mostly effective.
As the season has worn on and the games increasingly the games feel like postseason games, the bullpen is increasingly exposed. The result is a heaping handful of late season blown saves. I say that with some irony. I’ve defended the team a fair bit. The blown save statistic gets more and more useless as teams go to relievers earlier and earlier. If you are spouting Cub blown saves, I’m always going to ask you if you are aware of the fifth inning blown save in what I believe was a 2-1 game. What decade was it when you expected any team to allow a reliever to throw 4+ innings in a one run game?
In my best sarcastic voice, I can’t wait for a team to use two openers and then a bulk guy. That would allow the guy who pitches the largest number of innings to potentially be credited with a save in relief for someone who only faces a few batters in relief. I’m sure official scorers don’t want more decisions on their plate, but they should absolutely be given discretion as to if a blown save applies. The rule of thumb? Was it plausible that the reliever would finish the game?
Rant aside though, dating back to the Mariners series, there have been a whole series of legit blown saves. Of course there were some legit ones before that, but since that series in Seattle, it has felt like every save was blown. That’s not true. When I stop and think for a minute, I remember Ryan Zeferjahn’s save clearly. There have been a few. But there haven’t been nearly enough. This year’s Cub season is almost certain to end with a combo platter of one of their own pitchers going into the game with what appears to be a fire extinguisher and turn out to be straight pouring gasoline on a fire. Then, the other team’s effective closer will blow the Cubs away, leaving them shaking their head.
In the post mortem for this season, it’s going to be interesting to simultaneously have loved the aggressive trade deadline that netted players that solved real problems for this team while also being frustrated that the team didn’t obtain a legit closer. I’d feel 100 times better with Ryan Rolison and Trent Thornton working the sixth inning, Zeferjahn the seventh, Webb the eighth and some acquired closer working the ninth.
So much frustration. Somehow, this game would have been better with a run scoring in the bottom of the eighth and a 2-1 victory closed out by Trevor Megill. Chasing Megill, failing to score more against DL Hall and then watching the Cub bullpen blowing the ninth and tenth innings was downright awful. Baseball is a cruel, cruel mistress.
Three Positives:
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Aaron Civale faced six batters, retired all of them and struck out the first four. I understand there have been some observations about leverage. He faced six batters in a tie game against the team with the best record in baseball.
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Carson Kelly came through with a pinch-hit, two-run double in the ninth to give the Cubs the lead.
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Michael Conforto came off of the bench for a match-up platoon. He was hit by a pitch and drew a walk. The Cubs only had 12 base runners all day, seven hits, three walks and two hit batters.
Game 146, September 8: Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (81-65)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
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Superhero: Carson Kelly (.239). 1-1, 2B, 2 RBI
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Hero: Aaron Civale (.164). 2 IP, 6 BF, 4 K
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Sidekick: Michael Conforto (.156). 0-0, BB, HBP
THREE GOATS:
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Billy Goat: Jacob Webb (-.407). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, 2 R
WPA Play of the Game: Jackson Chourio’s two-run homer with two outs in the ninth to tie the game. (.491)
Cubs Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run double in the top of the ninth inning. (.240)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 147 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 33 of 74 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
Scoreboard Watching: Phillies lose (0.5 games up on Cubs). Braves lose (5.5 up). Diamondbacks win (3 back). Brewers win (nine up). Padres win (3.5 back). Dodgers win (7.5 up).
Up Next: The Cubs will try to salvage a win in this series and a split of their road trip. They are 5-7 since their last off day. They are 7-12 in their last 19. Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38) starts for the Cubs. He’s won his last three starts, including one against the Brewers. He allowed one run over seven in that one. Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48) starts for the Brewers. He lost that game to Gausman, despite only allowing three hits and two runs over seven innings.
Find a win. That first Wild Card is still very much within the Cubs’ grasp, but they’ve got to get back to winning games. Maybe, the offense will break out. They haven’t done so now since August 31 when they scored 17 against the Brewers.
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