2026-27 NBA Season Preview: Bulls, Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers and Bucks (Central Division)

With the regular season set to tip off on Oct. 20, let’s take a look at where each team in the Central Division stands. We’ll break down what to like and be concerned about, a lineup to watch and a reasonable range for them to finish in the standings. 

Let’s dig in, shall we?

Bulls • Cavaliers • Pistons • Pacers • Bucks

WHAT TO LIKE: Growth of Matas Buzelis

Buzelis stepped into a full-time starting role last season and didn’t disappoint. He posted career-highs in virtually everything, but I was most moved by his willingness to let it fly from deep (3.3 to 6.4 attempts), his finishing prowess (58.3% on 2s), and his splash plays as a weakside roamer (1.5 blocks). 

The next step for Buzelis, at least in my eyes, is leveraging his budding scoring talent to make plays for others. He, uh, leaves some passing reads on the table and I think there’s some low-hanging fruit for him to grab.

OTHER LIKES

• Ultimately, I’m pretty fascinated by the Bulls’ bet on skilled size. Caleb Wilson was incredibly fun (and good!) during Summer League action. I still remain a believer in Nic Claxton if he’s a healthier version of himself; I’m fascinated by how much of the hub work he got to partake in last season will carry over here. Josh Giddey obviously headlines the backcourt. The passing and pace-pushing speaks for itself at this point, but he quietly took some steps as a creator inside the arc last season.

• Norman Powell should be good for this Bulls team, for however long he’s there. His blend of shooting and juice off the bounce should make life easier for Giddey specifically. Get ready for plenty of quick-hitting pin downs and staggers.

• I’d just like to quietly note that Tre Jones was pretty darn good last year. Do not be surprised if some of the Bulls’ best lineups include him.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will Giddey make a worthwhile half-court leap?

I mentioned him as part of the skilled-size bit, but Giddey will remain under a microscope. As the Bulls have seemingly (read: FINALLY) committed to an earnest rebuild, you do want to get some firm answers on Giddey as a true centerpiece moving forward. 

Even while acknowledging some growth from last season, there’s still a level of force he needs to display in half-court settings. He still has a floater-heavy paint diet, even if those floaters were a little closer to the rim last year. The 3-point shooting, particularly off the bounce, is still a question. Can he take and make enough to truly force teams to shift ball-screen coverages against him? We shall see!

OTHER CONCERNS

• The defensive frontcourt has me on edge. On the high end, there’s a collective group of athleticism and ranginess — especially if we’re talking about the Buzelis-Wilson-Claxton triumvirate — that excites me to the point where I’m tempted to make a “Bulls top-12 defense” bold prediction. On the other side, I don’t know if I love Wilson or Buzelis defending 3s, and there’s a slightness to all three of their builds that has me worried about the Bulls’ ability to actually end possessions with defensive rebounds as the league leans more into #PossessionMaxxing. If Claxton isn’t able to stay healthy (again), the center depth is a bit worrisome to me.

• There are groupings I could envision that should have little issue scoring the basketball. There are groups that I envision, especially with how the offseason went, that should be able to string stops together. Putting together units that can do both could prove to be a challenge for new head coach Tiago Splitter (good work in a #weird Portland context last year). 

•  Would it be rude to put “Noa Essengue as a concept” in this spot?

LINEUP TO WATCH: Giddey-Powell-Wilson-Buzelis-Claxton

I don’t know if this will ultimately be their starting lineup, but this feels like the most important group for their short- and long-term goals. Get a real look at Wilson and Buzelis together; see how well Powell complements Giddey. 

With four players 6-foot-7 or taller, this could be a switch-y or activity-based group defensively. If they get enough stops, the transition attack could be reeeeally interesting. There’s also a world where teams paint-mash on one end, and help off multiple players (to dare them to shoot) and muck up the paint on the other.

BEST CASE: Just outside the play-in + young core impresses

I almost went full “September NBA Thoughts” and tossed out a firm play-in nod, but I do think that’d take some injury misfortune and general underachieving ahead of them. Still, it’s not hard for me to envision the Bulls being better-than-expected defensively, thus fueling a breakneck transition attack that catches teams off guard. 

Toss in some fringe All-Star cases for Giddey, Powell (who just earned his first selection) and/or Buzelis, and you’d have to feel good about where things are going. Add in a potential Rookie of the Year run from Wilson, and you’d feel even better.

Also, back to Giddey specifically: if he takes a meaningful step with his inside-the-arc effectiveness, you enter the offseason feeling better about him (and his contract) or with a pretty enticing trade chip — on a good contract — if you wish to sell high.

WORST CASE: Bottom of the East + Giddey stagnation

The new lottery rules (don’t get me started) already make finishing at the bottom of the standings way less enticing. If the Bulls are awful and you don’t get the Giddey answers you want … yeesh. They wouldn’t be in an impossible spot by any means, but you’d run the risk of prolonging the road to sustained success. Bulls fans deserve a lot better. 

WHAT TO LIKE: Evan Mobley‘s upside

It feels like Mobley’s 2025-26 season was underappreciated last year. While I understand why that was the case — many were expecting (or at least hoping for) a true leap into superstardom, but we only got modest gains — it’s important to note he was still very good. 

This is, when healthy, a perennial DPOY candidate that has continued to grow as a creator for himself and others (when getting true hub usage). I will once again cite one of my favorite stats from last year: among nearly 200 players to receive at least 200 on-ball picks, nobody generated more points per chance than Mobley did (the only guy above 1.2 PPP). 

If a “disappointing” season from Mobley is averaging 18-9-4-1-2 on near-60 true shooting with high-level defense, and he followed that up with a fantastic playoff run anyway, a baseline level of excitement should be baked in. He’s still only 25!

OTHER LIKES

• This is going to be the first full year of the James Harden-Donovan Mitchell backcourt. Even at this stage, Harden remains a prolific scorer and superb playmaker. That should, in theory, activate more of Donovan Mitchell as a second-side option. Mitchell, of course, is coming off another All-NBA campaign. The Cavs had a 126.7 offensive rating with those two on the floor last year.

• Welcome to the party, Peyton Watson. There’s valid questioning to be had about his full-time starter stint in Denver last year, but there’s a blend of athleticism, shot-making, and defensive versatility (there are some serious rim-protection chops here) that excite me. I can’t wait to see how he’s deployed on both ends.

• Because of the offseason losses (more on that shortly), we’re getting more Craig Porter Jr. (and/or Tyrese Proctor) this year. People that have followed my analysis for years know that I will cling to a uniquely skilled guy until literally all evidence suggests that they’re bad. And even then, it might take a while. CPJ is a funky (complimentary) dude that I think will do well with more consistent time and trust.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Harden-Mitchell backcourt, defensively

It’s a boring concern to start with, but it’s a valid one. Beyond the actual results, this regular season has to be spent learning how many things they can reasonably attempt defensively with those two. 

How often, and against what matchups and actions, are they willing to switch? How often, and against what matchups and actions, can they go hedge-and-recover? What types of cross-matching can you truly lean into, and what does that do for the rest of the cast? 

Frankly, these questions feel more geared toward Mitchell than Harden to me. One reason is because we (should) have a firm understanding of who Harden is and isn’t defensively at this stage of his career. He is a strength and hands-based guy that won’t be navigating a high volume of screens if he can help it. There’s still a level of attentiveness and effort he has to give, but structurally we know the deal. 

It feels more up in the air for Mitchell. He should be able to execute multiple things, if for no other reason than because he has the quickness and outlier wingspan to do so. Considering his general matchup difficulty, he should be a (much, much, MUCH) better off-ball defender than he ultimately is. The Cavs simply need more consistency from him on that end.

OTHER CONCERNS

• Now while I am personally high on the young reserves — CPJ and Jaylon Tyson specifically — they’ve shifted from “bonus” to “necessary” this year. Considering the Cavs’ cap and apron situation, it’s not like they have a ton of maneuverability to pivot if those guys don’t shake out. 

• While we’re on the reserves: God bless the genuinely elite post seals and general motor of Thomas Bryant, but I would be terrified as a Cavs fan if Jarrett Allen went down for an extended period of time.

• We talked about this on our pod episode with the Chase Down guys, but I am curious what lessons Kenny Atkinson took from last season and what his approach will be. I am firmly in the “he’s a very good coach” camp — like, that felt evident going back to the Brooklyn days — but there’s a thin line between a willingness to experiment, and doing so much experimenting that your team doesn’t actually know who they are. He’s got some important buttons to press this season, and I hope he does so.

LINEUP TO WATCH: Harden-Mitchell-Watson-Mobley-Allen

I was tempted to go with a Mobley-at-the-5 group — one of the hybrid units like Harden-Merrill-Tyson-Watson-Mobley could be fun — but you kinda have to start with their projected starters. Between the creation prowess of Harden and Mitchell, the defensive chops of Mobley and Allen, and the two-way juice Watson could provide, this should be one of the best lineups in all of basketball.

BEST CASE: No. 1 seed

Call me crazy if you must: if the Cavs get at least 60 games of Harden, Mitchell, Mobley and Allen together, they’re going 40-20 at worst. This should be a top-10 unit on both ends of the floor. If Watson fills the appropriate gaps at the 3, and the reserves do well with more minutes, they could and should absolutely churn out wins. The major non-health questions I have for this team are almost exclusively through a playoff lens. 

WORST CASE: Play-In Tournament

The East is incredibly talented. At least 12 teams are entering this year thinking, if things go right, they could push for a top-10 spot, if not a playoff spot outright. There’s obviously a world where the Cavs deal with injuries to Harden, Allen and others that could lower their floor. Beyond that, there’s sneaky “what if we just switch against them” potential with their offense that could lead to a good-but-not-elite ranking. That, the defensive backcourt concerns, and the general strength of the conference could have them land lower than expected.

WHAT TO LIKE: Cade Cunningham

A Cade Cunningham that’s willing to bomb away from 3 off the bounce to complement his downhill growth (hello, foul-drawing craft!) is:

3. [checks notes] An MVP candidate and All-NBA First Team member

It’s hard to overstate how good Cunningham was last year, even as he suffered one of the worst catch-and-shoot seasons of his career. His pick-and-roll craft, already strong, felt even better last year with everything else he added to the table. I was generally impressed with the effort he gave defensively in light of the offensive load (and the spacing context) he had to navigate.

What a hooper.

OTHER LIKES

• Ausar Thompson established himself as the best perimeter defender, if not the best non-Wemby defender, in the league last year. That defense, along with his transition finishing, connective playmaking, cutting, and work on the offensive glass got him paid. I’m excited to see how his offensive role evolves, and I’m never gonna get tired of watching him fly around on defense.

• You won’t find a bigger fan of Isaiah Joe around these parts. He’s one of the league’s elite shooters, and he’s quietly grown into a serviceable-enough defender. There should be some playbook continuity between him and Duncan Robinson — and plenty of room for Cunningham and others if Joe and Robinson spend meaningful time on the floor together.

• Part of the reason Isaiah Stewart is no longer a Piston is because Paul Reed is good at basketball. He’s become a lot more important at work — and that role may increase further due to [waves arms wildly] — but I’m excited for him.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Jalen Duren

Seriously, how and why has this drawn on so long?

(That is rhetorical. This has been a very public ordeal that I am personally drained by, and I’m not even a Pistons fan. I will once again say that restricted free agency, while well-intentioned, is a scam.)

Duren’s postseason debut was a shaky one; one that he undoubtedly has to learn and grow from. But he’s fresh off an All-NBA and All-Star campaign where he took meaningful steps as a self-creator and defender (still sub-elite, but I’m encouraged by the trajectory). Hopefully the two sides can work something out while also smoothing over the relationship. 

OTHER CONCERNS

• It’s not a new point, but I do wish I felt better about the non-Cade creators on the roster. We’ll see how much on-ball responsibility Thompson is trusted with. I’m cautiously amused by Ebuka Okorie. As much as I enjoyed the Daniss Jenkins experience last year, I wish he was more of a bonus than a (potential) necessity on this roster.

• To that point, I have some lingering 3-point volume/variety questions with John Collins effectively replacing Tobias Harris on this roster. I think people are generally sleeping on how important Harris was last year. 

LINEUP TO WATCH: Cunningham-Joe-Robinson-Thompson-Collins

This may be the best combination of spacing for Cunningham, and rim protection to pair with Collins to make him-at-the-5 lineups work. In theory, there’s a good deal of versatility that could be tapped into on both ends with this group.

BEST CASE: No. 1 seed

They just won 60 games, and their two most impactful players from my view (Cunningham, Thompson) are 1) still here and 2) still getting better. Even with some defensive slippage — let’s say they go from 2nd to 7th — more shooting should loosen things up in the half-court offensively. There’s absolutely a pathway to them maintaining the top seed in the conference.

WORST CASE: Play-In Tournament

The East’s depth could be enough reason for the Pistons to fall in the 7-10 range. If the half-court offense underwhelms — aside from the obvious Thompson shooting portion, I am curious to the volume of switches the Pistons face — in addition to the defense taking any sort of step back, there’s certainly room to slide in the standings.

WHAT TO LIKE: Tyrese Haliburton is back

The last time we saw Haliburton, he was carving up the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to open Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. On a basic level, I’m overjoyed that one of the brightest young stars in the league gets to play basketball again following a devastating injury.

As for the actual basketball, Haliburton’s blend of virtuosic playmaking, pull-up chops, and growing downhill comfort makes him one of the best and most impactful players in the league. To say the Pacers missed him last year would be a massive understatement.

OTHER LIKES

• I’m a big Ivica Zubac guy, and I’m fascinated by what a full season, paired with the return of Haliburton, will look like. At his peak, he’s a fringe All-NBA guy that could solve problems in the paint on both ends. Of note, fittingly per Cleaning the Glass: the Pacers haven’t finished in the top-10 in offensive rebound rate since 2021-22, or the top-10 in defensive rebound rate since 2014-15. Big fella should help with that.

• Haliburton’s return should lighten the creation burden of Pascal Siakam (still insanely good) and Andrew Nembhard specifically. To the latter, I wonder how much last year’s uptick in responsibility will pay off this year with less eyes on him.

• A couple of bench thoughts: I like Kelly Oubre in this context, and the presence of Zubac flips Jay Huff’s responsibility from “PLEASE BE 85% OF MYLES TURNER” to “please be a reliable change-of-pace big for 15-18 minutes a night.” I’m much higher on the latter.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Haliburton’s ramp-up

This is less “I don’t think he’s going to be the same guy” because I believe he’ll ultimately get there. I mostly wonder if the ramp-up period, paired with the chemistry-building with Zubac and others, means the Pacers get off to, like, a 10-10 start in a stronger Eastern Conference. 

Of the ramp-up, I’ll be keeping a closer eye on how often and fruitful his drives are. My Dunker Spot teammate Steve Jones made the comparison to Jayson Tatum’s return last year, where it took Tatum a bit to find his footing as a driver. The Pacers will need a level of downhill juice from him, especially if they want to maintain the high-octane style that led them to a Finals appearance.

OTHER CONCERNS

• More of a curiosity than a concern, but I do wonder what type of defense the Pacers will play. At their best, they had high pick-up points and went with an at-the-level approach with Myles Turner against ball screens. How much of that do you want to replicate in light of Haliburton’s return and the full-time addition of Zubac?

• Related to an earlier point, I do have some real questions about the Pacers’ ability to end possessions when Zubac sits. 

• Quieter thing, but I do wish I felt a little bit better about the overall shooting talent on the roster — at least compared to some of the other heavy-hitters in the conference. Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith are probably the only high-volume guys I really trust.

LINEUP TO WATCH: Haliburton-Nembhard-Nesmith-Siakam-Zubac

This is the likely starting group, and I ultimately think it’ll be a good one. I’ll be keeping early eyes on the Haliburton-Zubac partnership, both in pick-and-roll/handoff chemistry and the overall meshing of pacing, but I trust they’ll ultimately figure it out. Siakam getting to roam with Zubac on the backline is an underrated piece of goodness that I’m excited to watch.

BEST CASE: Top-4 seed

I think people should prepare for the possibility of Haliburton almost-immediately looking like himself, Siakam putting together another All-Star-worthy season, and Zubac putting himself back in All-Star and All-Defense conversations. Add in Nembhard being lower in the offensive hierarchy (and returning to All-Defense form in his own right) and a sneaky-fun reserve group … hey, man. Sleep on the Pacers if you’d like.

WORST CASE: Missing the playoffs

It’s hard to stress how important Haliburton is to making all of this work, though. He’s the one guard on the roster that can consistently draw the attention of multiple defenders and capitalize on any advantages that present themselves. If he’s not right, the margin for error shrinks tremendously. And, again, I expect the East to be a bloodbath regardless. 

WHAT TO LIKE: The young Bucks

I’m probably more fascinated than I should be by Milwaukee’s young cast of characters. 

I hope the Bucks don’t waste time clearing room for Brayden Burries, whose on-ball chops popped off the screen for me during Summer League. Kasparas Jakučionis shot the leather off the ball in limited minutes with the Heat last year, and has a level of audacity in pick-and-roll that I’m always going to root for. 

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is coming off a season worthy of Sixth Man of the Year — especially if you didn’t foolishly factor play-in games (notably not part of the regular season) into your voting calculus. If you sold your Ousmane Dieng stock at any point over the past couple of years, I am sorry but I’ve probably purchased all of it. 

There’s Ke’lel Ware, the frustratingly talented big that has (fringe) All-Star written all over it if he simply #GetsIt. I’m excited to learn more about Nate Ament and why so many of my draft pals seem so split on him. If nothing else, we should get to learn quite a bit this year.

OTHER LIKES

• To the basketball: I’ve generally been a fan of Taylor Jenkins, and think he could have some fun with this group. Fun is relative, of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got creative with multiple three-guard looks and hit teams with waves. More than anything, I want to see what kind of relationship he’s able to build with [checks notes] former All-Star Tyler Herro.

• To that point, how many people do we think are aware that Ryan Rollins is coming off 17-5-6 on over 58 true shooting? He played so well to begin the year, in the midst of Giannis being in and out of the lineup, that he graduated to bouts of “Nah, not you” coverages. He has to grow against (high) ball pressure, but he’s established himself as a good guard worth investing in.

• I am not here to spin that Giannis Antetokounmpo not being on the roster is a good thing. He is one of the greatest players of all time, at worst a top-three player to ever don a Bucks jersey, and clearly meant a lot to Milwaukee as a community figure. You do not erase all of that, nor should anyone want to. If there is a hint of a silver lining to be found here, it’s that the will-he-or-won’t-he portion of the program has passed. It is officially, undoubtedly, a new era. 

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Gary Trent Jr.’s contract Rotation & transaction decisions

In a vacuum, the Bucks have a lot of talented, interesting perimeter players that are worth monitoring. It’s hard not to argue that the room is oversaturated, though. In the short, on-court term, Jenkins has his work cut out for him to figure out who to play, when to play them, and how long he can do so.

It’s incredibly easy for me to type “the Bucks need a consolidation trade (or seven) to make this roster more sensible” — and they do! — but if I feel this way, surely the rest of the league feels this way. That could hamper some of Milwaukee’s leverage when making deals. 

OTHER CONCERNS

• No, seriously: how on earth do you dole out that contract after that 2025-26 campaign? Do not answer that.

• There’s less of a logjam up front, but I do think we might mess around and get some Ware-Turner minutes. I am not sure what to make of that on either end of the floor. 

• Is Kyle Kuzma actually in the running for being the best wing defender on this roster? Can we do something about this? 

LINEUP TO WATCH: Rollins-Burries-Dieng-JJJ-Ware

If the “likes” section wasn’t enough of a signal, these are probably the five players I’m most excited to watch this year. Give me the mix of drives and pull-up shooting this group could provide and live with the results. 

BEST CASE: Miss the playoffs, Giannis package + rookies thrive

If the Bucks end this season with Burries and Ament showcasing good things, at least two of Ware/Jaquez/Jakučionis making notable leaps, and Herro either solidifying himself as a firm All-Star talent or convincing another team to pony up real assets in their belief that he can be, I’d mark that as a win.

Bonus points if you can move off big-money vets like Turner, Kuzma (expiring!) or Trent Jr. for any sort of assets or roster-balancing.

WORST CASE: Miss the playoffs, no real answers on the young core

It’d be the exact opposite of the best case — finishing the year without feeling like you have a blue-chip prospect on the roster, no notable improvements from the Heat acquisitions, and not being able to sell on the veterans in a meaningful way.