The US Open returns to Shinnecock Hills for the sixth time in its history from June 18-21, but who will rise to the occasion at one of America’s toughest tracks to claim the glory this year’s penultimate Major Championship?
The last time the US Open was held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in 2018 not one player managed to finish under par for the week, with Brooks Koepka winning his second US Open title with a +1 score for four rounds.
Safe to say, Shinnecock Hills, which is located on breezy expanse of land on the northern tip of Long Island in New York, hard by the Atlantic Ocean, is a brutal test and a presents thorough examination of every element of a golfer’s skillset.
Koepka was only the third player to successfully defend the US Open, following Ben Hogan in 1951 and Curtis Strange in 1989, after his win at in 2017, so JJ Spaun, who lifted the title in 2025, is definitely going to have his work cut out if he wants to join that elite club, while Koepka, who is working his way back into life on the PGA Tour following his three-year dalliance with LIV Golf, may also struggle to recapture the form that saw him claim the world no.1 spot in 2018.
While Koepka deserved all the plaudits for his gutsy display, all the brickbats at the 2018 US Open were handed out to the United States Golf Association, organisers of the tournament, who clearly and culpably mis-read the state of the course, and the weather, when setting up the pin positions for the first three days.
With the wind gusting up to 25mph on the opening day, Shinnecock’s already quick greens soon turned into skating rinks, and with flags placed on ridges and virtually inaccessible locations, it times made the world’s best players look like weekend hackers. Rory McIlroy and Jason Day both ended their hopes on day one with rounds of 80.
The USGA will under pressure not to make the same mistake this time around and judging by interviews given by tournament officials ahead of this year’s championship they will be keeping an almost minute-by-minute watch on the course before and throughout the championship to ensure things don’t get as silly out there as they did eight years ago.
John Bodenhamer, the USGA’s chief championships officer, has said they have moved away from their obsession with par being the ‘right score’ for a US Open, and that they want to give players a chance to attack and to go on the offensive rather than seeing players looking to simply limit their mistakes. “We want to let Shinnecock be Shinnecock”, he said, somewhat ambiguously.
WIDER FAIRWAYS, LESS GLASSY GREENS
With that in mind, the USGA are aiming keep the green speeds at around 11-11.5 on the stimpmeter, which is still quick, but not silly quick, and while conditions will get firmer and faster over the weekend, they will be closely monitoring moisture levels to ensure the putting surfaces don’t get crusty, as they did in 2018.
Another big change is the width of the fairways. Back in 2018, many were referred to as ‘bacon strips’, thin and crispy, with some as narrow as 20 yards, whereas this time around the fairways have been widened by six yards to an average 48 yards, compared to the 42 that they were, giving players a much better chance of having a decent lie for their approach shots.
That said, players will still have to be on point if they are to score well, as the right parts of the fairway will have to be found in order to able to attack pins and also find the right part of Shinnecock’s treacherous raised greens if they are to go hunting for eagles and birdies. If you do miss a fairway you’re likely to be in five-inch deep fescue, which will make it hard to progress the ball, while more than eight feet offline and you’re in the knee-high stuff and a world of trouble.
With the par-70 course measuring 7,440 yards, distance will, as ever, be a vital part of any likely winner’s armoury, especially given the style of the greens, which are not very receptive to low-trajectory second shots, but those likely to prosper will be straight hitters who can control both their spin and ball flight. Expect players to play plenty of bump-and-run shots too, so a mastery of all aspects of the wedge game will be required to score well.
CAN SCOTTIE COMPLETE THE SLAM?
With that in mind, it will be no surprise to find Scottie Scheffler, a master at distance control with his irons, at the head of most betting markets, with Betway installing the world no.1 at 11-2. Scheffler, who celebrates his 30th birthday on the Sunday of the US Open, will have the chance to complete the career major grand slam at Shinnecock, having already annexed the Masters in 2022 and 2024, and the PGA Championship and The Open in 2025.
Should he win at Shinnecock, Scheffler would become only the seventh player to win all four majors and join Tiger Woods as the only player since 1960 to do so at the first opportunity. Rory McIlroy – who is priced at 9-1 to follow up his US Open win in 2011 – had to wait 11 years to get the final leg at last year’s Masters, while Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player each waited three years to complete the Major grand slam.
Scheffler followers might be put off by the fact that he hasn’t won in five months, which represents a veritable drought for a man who has won 20 PGA Tour titles since 2022. However, his form figures since his victory at The American Express in January – 3, 4, 12, 24, 22, 2, 2, 2 – still make for mighty impressive reading. His US Open form is also decent. He was runner-up in 2022 at The Country Club, tied seventh at Torrey Pines in 2021, and he was in the mix at Los Angeles in 2023, so he clearly has the game to win a US Open and is not afraid of tough courses.
TOMMY’S TIME TO SHINE
Someone else who has the game, and the form, is Tommy Fleetwood. The Southport Slugger was 27 when he made the world sit up and take notice when he finished fourth at Erin Hills in 2017. And he almost pulled off a smash and grab at Shinnecock in 2018 when he fired a final round 63 to take a clubhouse lead that was only beaten by Koepka.
Eight birdies and a single bogey added up to a history-equalling score for the US Open, and were it not for lipping out at the last from eight feet for a 62, Fleetwood may well have been the one with the trophy on his shelf. However, it was not to be, and his bid for a maiden major title came up agonisingly short.
Since then, Tommy has missed the cut in three of the last seven renewals of the US Open, but he did finish fifth in 2023, and his victory in the 2025 FedEx Cup and his impressively consistent form this season – six top-10s – makes his current odds of 20-1 quite tempting.
Other recent US Open winners Jon Rahm (12-1) and Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1) also make plenty of appeal, with the latter having maintained a rich vein of the form over the last two seasons, and the world no.4 has only missed two cuts in his last 22 majors.
However, my clear preference for an each-way investment is for Xander Schauffele (20-1), whose US Open CV makes for hugely impressive reading, with the 32-year-old American having no finished worse than 14th in nine attempts. After winning the PGA and the Open in 2024, he has had top-10s in the four of the last six majors and is clearly at a point in his career where he saves his best efforts for the big events.
Other longer odds players that make appeal include Wyndham Clark (33-1), winner of the US Open in 2023, while last month’s shock PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai should not be dismissed at 66-1 now that he knows that he truly belongs in major company. A straight hitter with a hot putter is clearly someone to stay on the right side of.
LATEST OUTRIGHT US OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS – VIA BETWAY
Scottie Scheffler 11/2
Rory McIlroy 9/1
Jon Rahm 12/1
Cameron Young 14/1
B DeChambeau 16/1
Ludvig Aberg 18/1
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
Xander Schauffele 20/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
Brooks Koepka 25/1
Justin Rose 33/1
Justin Thomas 33/1
Tyrrell Hatton 33/1
Wyndham Clark 33/1
Viktor Hovland 40/1
Collin Morikawa 40/1
Chris Gotterup 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Robert MacIntyre 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Jordan Speith 50/1
Others 50/1 or more (1/4 odds top 5 places)
The US Open Championship will air on Sky Sports Golf from June 18-21. For the full schedule of live coverage, visit skysports.com. For all the latest US Open Championship betting odds, visit Betway.
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