Yordan Alvarez has been the American League’s best hitter in 2026. But is that enough for him to be crowned AL MVP? The Astros’ designated hitter has one week left to hold off young Rays superstar Junior Caminero, who has made a surge for the award in recent weeks.
There’s no denying that the Astros’ slugger has had a monster season, hitting .311 with 40 homers and 99 RBI in 149 games entering Friday. He currently leads the AL in on-base percentage (.429), slugging (.598) and OPS (1.027). And he has stayed healthy and played in all but four of Houston’s games, allowing him to put together a remarkable season.
When it comes to winning MVP, the numbers are critically important, and the narrative of the season plays a part as well. But an often overlooked aspect of award voting, particularly for MVP, is historical precedent.
Alvarez is a primary designated hitter, and prior to Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50/50 season in 2024, in which he did not pitch but won NL MVP, no primary DH had ever won the MVP Award. Ohtani in 2024 is still the only DH to do it, given that in his other MVP seasons, he also pitched.
Considering his singular status as a two-way player, Ohtani is the exception to this rule. Besides him, no full-time designated hitter has ever won MVP. In fact, since 2000, only six designated hitters have finished in the top five of MVP voting. That list includes Frank Thomas (second in 2000, fourth in 2006), David Ortiz (fifth in 2003, fourth in 2004, second in 2005, third in 2006, fourth in 2007), Travis Hafner (fifth in 2005), J.D. Martinez (fourth in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (fourth in 2024) and Kyle Schwarber (second in 2025). Alvarez finished third in 2022 while splitting time between DH and outfield.
Among designated hitters since 1995, here are five of the top seasons comparable to Alvarez’s 2026 and where they finished in MVP balloting:
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Edgar Martinez, 1995: .356/.479/.628, 182 H, 29 HR, 113 RBI, 182 wRC+, 7.0 fWAR — third
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Frank Thomas, 2000: .328/.436/.625, 191 H, 43 HR, 143 RBI, 160 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR — second
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David Ortiz, 2005: .300/.397/.604, 180 H, 47 HR, 148 RBI, 157 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR — second
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David Ortiz, 2007: .332/.445/.621, 182 H, 35 HR, 117 RBI, 175 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR — fourth
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J.D. Martinez, 2018: .330/.402/.629, 188 H, 43 HR, 130 RBI, 170 wRC+, 5.8 fWAR — fourth
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Yordan Alvarez, 2026: 311/.429/.598, 166 H, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 177 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR — ?
When you look at what Alvarez has accomplished this season, his numbers with eight games to play are right in line with those of his elite DH contemporaries. But if designated hitters who put up similar seasons weren’t able to win MVP, will the Astros’ slugger be able to reverse that trend?
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Short of playing a defensive position, Alvarez has done everything he can to hold off Caminero, but the Rays’ third baseman has made a push over the past month. The 23-year-old, who has earned the title of best player on the AL’s best team, is slashing .277/.363/.532 with 41 home runs and 96 RBI this season. Although he rates out poorly defensively, Caminero has appeared in 151 games and counting at the hot corner. Plus, he delivered his potential MVP moment with a walk-off homer to clinch a playoff berth for the Rays.
One of the things working against Alvarez is the fact that, after being on pace to do so for most of the season, he is now unlikely to win the AL Triple Crown. Entering Friday, he’s tied with Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson for the league lead in batting average, he’s second to Caminero in home runs, and he’s second in RBI behind Baltimore’s Pete Alonso.
Recent history tells us that a historic season, like Ohtani’s 50/50 season in 2024 or Aaron Judge’s AL-record 61 home runs in 2022, can provide the narrative juice to pave the way to MVP, making the Triple Crown Alvarez’s best path to the award this year. Only Miguel Cabrera in 2012 has accomplished that feat in the past 60 years. Without the Triple Crown, it’ll likely be tougher for Alvarez to sway voters.
Another thing that’s likely hurting Alvarez’s case is how poorly the Astros have played in 2026. They might be one of the worst division winners in MLB history, or they could still miss the postseason completely. That said, there’s precedent for this in recent MVP voting, as Bryce Harper won the 2021 NL MVP Award on an 82-80 Phillies team that missed the postseason.
Over the past six seasons, the AL MVP Award has been dominated by Ohtani and Judge, with very little argument in the years they’ve won. But this season, with Alvarez and Caminero, voters will be selecting a new winner, and they’ll have to decide what’s most important in determining most valuable.
For the Astros’ slugger, we’ll wait to see if a nearly historic season by a designated hitter can be enough.
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