The New York Yankees are off to as good a start as you can ask for in the 2026 Major League Baseball season. After a series sweep of the San Francisco Giants on the road, they travel up the west coast and play the Seattle Mariners for a three-game series before a day off and their first home series of the year against the Miami Marlins.
With the strong start and some excellent performances from the necessary players to steer this ship toward a World Series, there was certainly some optimism among the Yankees fanbase coming out of opening weekend (also with the understanding that the Giants are a team still trying to find their footing in the National League West). However, according to a recent article in The Athletic, Yankees fans were generally less optimistic about the 2026 season and its potential results. In fact, they were about as optimistic as a few teams firmly within the rebuild territory.
The first observation from the optimism survey is precisely that: the Yankees, a team that tied for first in the American League East with 94 wins and made it to the American League Divisional Series (even though that’s not nearly the standard that has been set), are sandwiched by the Chicago White Sox, who finished last year with 102 losses — the second-most in all of MLB — and the Miami Marlins, who finished four games below the .500 mark. They’re also only three spots higher than the St. Louis Cardinals, who finished six games under .500 last year and have made it pretty clear that they’re in rebuild territory.
Suffice to say, for a team that finished with such a good placement in the standings last year and had a legitimate chance of making it back to the World Series, it was unexpected to see them surrounded by those other franchises.
Below are the Yankees’ finishes in the “Hope-O-Meter” polls in other seasons and how their final results turned out.
2025: 68.1 percent (17); 94-68, T-1st in AL East, lost in ALDS to Toronto Blue Jays
2024: 80.7 percent (11); 94-68, 1st in AL East, lost in World Series to Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: 71.1 percent (18); 82-80, 4th in AL East, Did not make playoffs
2022: 48 percent (21); 99-63, 1st in AL East, lost in ALCS to Houston Astros
Within these results there is a little bit of correlation here — the highest finishing year being the year where they made it to the World Series, the third-highest being when the team tied for first and made it to the ALDS — but the other two years showcase that just because the fans aren’t optimistic doesn’t mean that the plan of attack will or won’t work out. Yankees fans in 2022 finished 21st (one spot above where they are for 2026) and made it to the ALCS after winning the division with 99 wins. The year following, they finished 18th and went almost .500.
While the Yankees did take a more unpopular approach to the offseason moves they made this winter, it’s important to note that it’s a lot easier to look at your house and say it’s burning when you’re looking for every tiny ember versus not looking nearly as closely at all the other houses around you that are burning or have the potential to do so. And, of course, it’s important to remember that the entire attitude around the Yankees organization is “championship or bust.” It’s a noble concept in practice. Everyone wants their sports franchise to be run that way. But it can provide a bit of a “rose colored glasses” view of how a team operates relative to the others around it.
The Hope-O-Meter is not a predictor of results, and it never has been. Instead, it’s more of a fun experiment done by an outlet that lets fans voice their feelings (good or bad) about where they believe their franchise is heading into the season. And while Yankees fans were clearly not thrilled with how things were handled over the offseason and heading into the regular season, there’s a reason they play the games.
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