William Scull gives Canelo Alvarez a “75% chance” of defeating Terence Crawford on September 13th in their clash at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The former IBF super middleweight champion Scull says that Canelo’s natural size and experience give him an advantage over Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs). He states that Crawford, 37, is at a disadvantage with him coming up in weight after just one fight at 154 to challenge Canelo (63-2-2, 39 KOs) at 168 for his undisputed championship.
Scull knows what it’s like to fight Canelo, having lost a 12-round unanimous decision earlier this year on May 3, 2025, in Riyadh. At 6’2″, the Cuban Scull had the size, hand speed, and combination punching to force Canelo to fight more cautiously than he usually does. I believe Crawford doesn’t possess the hand speed, power, mobility, or combination punching ability that Scull had, which would make Canelo hesitant to walk him down.
A Mistake in Preparation
“Canelo is coming a couple of pounds down, and Crawford is coming all the way up to fight Canelo. Maybe if Crawford had one fight at 168, he would have gotten a little more experience at that weight. But going into that weight, it could be a problem,” said former IBF super middleweight champion William Scull to Fight Hub TV, giving his thoughts on Terence Crawford’s chances of beating undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez.
Crawford’s decision to put on size without testing it out with a tune-up at 168 could hurt his chances of winning. He had his reasons for not using the time that he had to take a warm-up fight at super middleweight. Scull and WBC junior middleweight champion Sebastian Fundora believe it was a mistake for Terence not to get some experience at 168 before fighting Alvarez.
The Weight Class Factor
“Canelo would knock him out before the 12th round. It would surprise me if Crawford won this fight. There is a disadvantage in regards to the weight classes. If there wasn’t, it would be a 50-50 fight. This fighting in this weight class definitely benefits Canelo. I say there’s about a 75% chance Canelo wins the fight,” said Scull.
The variables that Scull is overlooking are Crawford’s age and inactivity. Size isn’t the only issue that could hold Crawford back from winning. It’s his age, combined with the chronic inactivity he’s had over the last four years, since 2021.
The Age and Layoff Problem
Terence turns 38 on September 28, and that’s not young for a fighter coming off a 13-month layoff and moving up two weight classes. It would have helped if Crawford had moved up to 168 and fought a couple of contenders in the year he’s been out of the ring. That still wouldn’t have helped Crawford with his age. He’d still be a 38-year-old.
“Crawford, even though he looks stronger, he’s really coming up in weight a lot. He can go in and out, which benefits Crawford against Canelo. The main thing here is not to be in the middle of the ring because Canelo will definitely have the advantage. He’ll be stronger,” said Scull.
Crawford’s power may increase with the weight he’s put on, but will it be enough to hold Canelo off? That’s the question. Canelo will be on the attack with his own heavy shots, and that’s where Crawford could have problems.
Last Updated on 08/31/2025
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