Will Red Bull regret taking Lawson instead of Tsunoda for F1 2025?

Red Bull ‘rookie’ Liam Lawson will begin the 2025 Australian Grand Prix from 18th on the grid after being eliminated in the first segment of qualifying. Yuki Tsunoda – the man now parked in the Racing Bulls sister squad after being passed over for promotion in favour of Lawson – made it all the way to Q3 and will start fifth.

On the face of it, then, Red Bull’s grandees have chosen poorly.

Sergio Perez’s increasingly wayward performances in the RB20 last season made it a matter of when, rather than if, he would be fired. And as it panned out, the timeline of that decision-making process proved further evidence of the power struggle rampaging behind the scenes at Red Bull Racing: ‘driver advisor’ Helmut Marko wanted Perez out after the Spanish Grand Prix (where Perez carried a three-place grid penalty into the weekend, then was six tenths off Max Verstappen in Q3 anyway), while team principal Christian Horner argued in favour of giving him more time and won that argument.

The muddle continued until the final rounds of the year, where Tsunoda was kept waiting on confirmation that he would drive the RB20 in the post-season test in Abu Dhabi. And yet even as he was settling himself into the cockpit on that December day, the decision had pretty much been taken that Lawson would get the nod instead, on account of his “mental strength”. Ultimately, despite outpacing several team-mates, Tsunoda’s predilection for throwing tantrums under pressure swung the decision.

And so to Saturday in Australia, and Red Bull management’s egg-on-face moment.

Or is it? To cite the events of qualifying at Albert Park as prime evidence that Marko and Horner made the wrong call would be to indulge in a classic case of inductive fallacy.

Indubitably Tsunoda had a great qualifying in a car that’s proved relatively benign in terms of keeping the soft tyres alive over a flying lap (team-mate Isack Hadjar only narrowly missed Q3). Red Bull’s ‘A’ team, by contrast, has struggled to dial in the RB21: on Friday, both cars were wanting for grip and balance.

Having not raced at Albert Park before, Lawson was always likely to struggle more than Verstappen in these circumstances – particularly on a ‘green’ street circuit where track evolution is more of a factor than conventional venues.

What really killed Lawson’s chances of improving was the turbo issue which prevented him from running in FP3 and evaluating the setup changes Red Bull made overnight. He would also have gained crucial operational intelligence in terms of managing the tyres over a push lap.

The soft tyre for the Australian Grand Prix is the C5 which, like Pirelli’s other compounds, has been tweaked in anticipation of the 2025 cars generating higher aerodynamic loads. But it has proved frustratingly sensitive – the rear tyres in particular simply ‘let go’ if too much is asked of them at the beginning of the lap.

Hence Lawson’s final attempt to break out of Q1 was the proverbial dog’s dinner: it started out encouragingly enough but by the middle of the lap he was having to correct oversteer snaps, sailing past the apex of Turn 12. A final excess of commitment into Turn 15 resulted in the nose ploughing onward to the grass, forcing him to abort the lap entirely.

The question is whether Tsunoda would have done any better in the same car, in the same circumstances. And the answer to that is unknown.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing, Helmut Marko, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Verstappen himself expressed surprise at qualifying third. During a session with Dutch media he elucidated further, saying that before the session he thought Marko was “way too optimistic” when he said the second row might be a possibility. Max even feared he might not advance as far as Q3.

It’s also worth noting that on Verstappen’s final lap, the one where he secured third on the grid, he didn’t even set a personal best time in sector one. And the rear tyres still started to misbehave as he pushed through the third sector.

You might argue that Tsunoda would therefore have been a better bet given his greater experience, since Lawson has only contested 11 grands prix. But the sensitivity of the revised tyres has altered the landscape for everyone – there are too many unknowns to say for sure.

More data is required before we decisively clap Lawson in the stocks and pelt him with rotten fruit and veg, though the Dunning-Kruger effect dictates that some people will do it anyway.

Either way, he’s going to need every ounce of that mental toughness in the days and weeks ahead.