Why McLaren expected Red Bull to be closer at F1 Spanish GP

McLaren Formula 1 team principal Andrea Stella has explained why he expected Red Bull to be closer in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix even disregarding the FIA’s front wing flexing clampdown.

Competitors had hoped the FIA’s decreased tolerance for front wing flexing would have reduced McLaren’s advantage on the rest of the field, but that theory has been put to bed after the papaya team appeared every bit as strong, especially on a circuit layout that on paper didn’t look favourable for its car.

McLaren had repeatedly claimed the technical directive would not be the silver bullet that some hoped it would be, and it has been vindicated thus far.

“In terms of the impact of the front wing modifications, I think it unfolded pretty much like we at McLaren were expecting,” Stella said after Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris locked out the front row, two tenths ahead of Max Verstappen.

“We always thought that the impact would have been relatively negligible because when we saw the numbers associated with this change of aeroelastic effect, they were small numbers. When we tested this wing in Imola, if we hadn’t told Lando that it was a different wing, he wouldn’t have spotted it.”

That doesn’t mean McLaren thought Barcelona would be business as usual, because Red Bull has been pretty much on par on circuits with lots of fast, high downforce corners like Suzuka, Jeddah and Imola, while McLaren’s real advantage has been on more technical, rear limited circuits like Bahrain and Miami.

“In a way, I’m a little surprised that we had such a clear advantage,” Stella explained. “I would have expected Red Bull to be a little closer based on some of the similar circuit characteristics that we found in Suzuka or in Imola.

“In hindsight, looking at the very high temperatures, the limitations were mainly associated with the rear axle. And if that’s the same for everyone, I think it’s where our car performs very well. And if we want to be slightly more technical, one characteristic of Spain is that the corners are very long, unlike Imola where the corners are relatively shorter.

“In these long corners, the MCL39 seems to be able to carry over some of the qualities of the predecessor, whereby last year, for instance in Zandvoort, another track with long corners, Lando dominated the weekend. Even if the speed range is similar to some other circuits, the length of the corners helped us.”

Red Bull well balanced, but “just lacks grip”

Red Bull has generally struggled to find a consistent balance for its RB21 on circuits like Barcelona, but that actually wasn’t the case this time. Whether or not the front wing clampdown played a role in it, Verstappen felt satisfied with the through-corner balance of his machine. It just didn’t provide enough grip, with Verstappen losing out in a first sector that would ordinarily been good for his car.

“If you don’t have enough grip, then that’s it,” Verstappen said when asked about his qualifying lap by Autosport. “The balance was good, but we just didn’t have enough grip, so there was not much we could do.

“I think my last sector was good, so [keeping the tyres alive] wasn’t a problem. We just lack a bit of grip. The overall performance just isn’t there. And we know that. You just have to accept it.”

High tyre wear could still cause some strategic variance and opportunities to find enough of a lap time advantage to overtake cars in front, even if passing is inherently difficult here. And as it happens, Verstappen still looked competitive in Friday’s long runs, so it is not a given that the two orange cars will just sprint clear from the rest of the field in Sunday’s expected two-stop race. Or is it?

Polesitter Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Lando Norris, McLaren, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images via Getty Images

“It’s difficult to say in terms of how the race will unfold, who’s going to be the best in terms of keeping tyre degradation under control,” Stella offered. “When you’ve done 20 laps on a tyre, you might have lost 2.5 seconds just on tyre degradation. So, if you go onto a new set, you go 2.5 seconds faster.

“That’s why strategy becomes a factor, because if you do an undercut onto new tyres, it’s very likely you’re going to pass the car.

“I would like to hope that our qualities of keeping the rear tyres under control will pay off tomorrow, but we have seen definitely some competitive long runs by, I would say in particular, Ferrari and Max.”

Verstappen is less convinced he will have anything for Piastri and Norris on Sunday, even if he can repeat his Imola heroics by snatching the lead at the start.

“My goal is to be on the podium,” the Dutch world champion said. “Preferably in the middle, but that’s not realistic unless you’re lucky. McLaren is doing very well here. It’s a bit different than in Imola.”