The Golden State Warriors must do what they have not been able to over the past 15 years: Win without Stephen Curry, who suffered a strain of his left hamstring in Game 1 of their second-round playoff series.
The Warriors rallied around his absence, defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in their series opener, 99-88, thanks to a collective effort. The Wolves will host Game 2 on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Curry will be reevaluated in a week’s time, which puts his availability for Wednesday’s Game 5 in jeopardy. Game 6 is not scheduled until May 18, a dozen days removed from the injury. The average absence for a Grade 1 strain, which is what Curry has, is roughly 10 days, according to Jeff Stotts of In Street Clothes.
In all likelihood Golden State will have to win at least once without Curry — a tall task. The Warriors are 659-367 when Curry is in the lineup over the course of his career, a .642 winning percentage. They are 91-152, a .374 winning percentage, when he is out. That is the difference between a 53-win team and a 31-win team, and in case you had not heard 31-win teams do not often win in the second round of the playoffs.
So how do the Warriors go about winning, even once? Jimmy Butler.
The Warriors, as ever, were outscored whenever Curry was off the floor this season — until Butler arrived at the trade deadline. Their -2.9 net rating when Curry was on the bench improved by 8.4 points per 100 possessions as soon as Butler arrived. When Butler was on the court without Curry, Golden State outscored opponents by 12.8 points per 100 possessions, excluding garbage time, per Cleaning the Glass.
That, my friends, is reason to believe.
There is, of course, a difference between outscoring an opponent’s reserve unit whenever Curry is resting during the regular season and outscoring a full rotation in his absence for the entirety of a playoff game.
As Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said of the remnants of his dynastic team, “He’s like Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Michael Jordan in Chicago. None of it happens without Steph. And everybody knows that.”
But! It is not just coincidence that the Warriors have been able to survive their minutes without Curry in the Butler era. The 35-year-old wing is that good. NBA coaches talk a lot about the margins — turnovers and free throws, specifically; the little things that can win or lose games — and Butler was born in them, molded by them on the Miami Heat, who make it their life’s mission to bend those margins in their favor.
Consider:
• Butler has logged 37 assists against four turnovers in these playoffs, a 9.25 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks first among anyone who has played at least 20 minutes per game. The Warriors record more assists and fewer turnovers whenever Butler is on the floor — regardless of whether or not Curry is available.
• Likewise, no one has more playoff steals than Butler in the past five years. It is not close. He owns the all-important possession game, maximizing his team’s chances while limiting his opponent’s opportunities.
• Within those possessions Butler is doing even more, drawing fouls and not committing them. The Warriors are attempting 6.5 more free throws per 100 possessions when Butler is on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. Similarly, Golden State’s opponents are shooting 6.7 fewer free throws per 100 possessions when Butler is in the game. That is a wild swing in the margins, as much as 13.2 points per game.
• Butler is also fully capable of being an offensive hub, though we do not think of him as one. He led the Heat to a pair of NBA Finals appearances, after all, scoring as many as 56 points in a playoff game against the Milwaukee Bucks. He has scored 40 or more points in a game on eight occasions, all in the last five years.
In fact, when Butler attempts 25 or more field goals in a playoff game, his teams are 9-0.
Again: Belief.
That is all the Warriors need to win a second game in this series. After all, as Kerr said of the playoffs, “It generally comes down to the energy, the spirit, how hard you play, and then stepping up and making some shots.” Who brings more energy, more spirit; who plays harder than Butler? It is the foundation upon which his career has been built — from JUCO to the 30th overall pick and now NBA superstardom.
It is remarkable that we are here in Jimmy Butler’s Moment, again, in this of all seasons. He abandoned the Heat, believing they no longer had a chance to contend, only to find himself in Golden State, where without Curry their only chance of contention is to do what Miami did for so long: Ride Jimmy Butler.
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