Who holds the aces in the F1 title showdown?

Formula 1 will return its constructors’ championship crown back to one of two heritage teams on the grid come the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi this Sunday.

With Max Verstappen’s title-winning performances not backed up by team-mate Sergio Perez, who will finish the year eighth in the drivers’ standings, Red Bull has been unable to defend its position atop the manufacturers’ table.

The Milton Keynes-based outfit will instead finish no better than second, though third is the most likely resting place given the 38-point gap to the top two.

Instead, it’s old foes McLaren and Ferrari that are out to take the glory, with the former 21 points to the good ahead of the final weekend. Who will emerge on top?

McLaren out to end drought

The last time McLaren won a constructors’ title, Mika Hakkinen became world champion for the first time back in 1998. To end that drought, 24 points between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri would extend the team’s advantage over Ferrari to 45, a total exceeding the maximum available for the weekend.

That would keep matters in their own hands, whereas anything less and then Ferrari would still have hope of triumph – but more on that later.

If Norris or Piastri win the race, then that’s it – no need for getting the abacus out. But the cars finishing second and seventh, or third and fifth would be enough, even if the Scuderia picked up a 1-2 finish with the added point for a fastest lap to boot.

Any issues for Ferrari which would prevent that crucial 1-2 finish would leave McLaren in a fanciful position, especially with modern reliability.

Can Ferrari pull off the turnaround?

Ferrari has a title drought of its own to end having not won the constructors’ since 2008, ironically in a battle with McLaren during which the Woking-based outfit won its last title of any kind – Lewis Hamilton’s maiden drivers’ crown.

But the Italian marque more than likely needs a McLaren double DNF – or other catastrophes – to come out on top.

If McLaren fails to score at Yas Marina, Ferrari would need 22 points only. So a win for either driver, or at least second and eighth for Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz would be enough if Norris and Piastri hit strife.

But if the papaya machines finish in the points, Ferrari’s chances begin to fade.

If Leclerc and Sainz could take a 1-2, with either clinching the fastest lap and with McLaren finishing third and sixth with its two cars, then both teams would be tied.

With the number of race victories used as the first port of call on a countback, then a Ferrari win in Abu Dhabi would take it one ahead of McLaren this term, giving the Maranello-based squad the title in this case.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF-24, Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-24

Photo by: Ferrari

So slim hope, but hope nevertheless.

Which way will it go?

While Ferrari and, in particular, Leclerc are in fine form as of late – the Monegasque scoring more than Norris and champion Verstappen since the summer break – there are so many variables that fall in McLaren’s favour regardless of the points situation.

For example, unlike in recent years where two teams have been in direct competition throughout the year, there is no guarantee that either outfit will finish 1-2 given the speed shown by Verstappen in the Red Bull and Mercedes recently – the Dutchman and George Russell winning the past two races in Qatar and Las Vegas.

Then there is the track itself, which should suit the McLaren given the medium-speed heavy lay-out – the type of circuit it has excelled at all season.

That’s not to say that the Ferrari will be poor around the venue, but rather on a weekend it needs McLaren to be well off its game, the likelihood is that the #4 and #81 will be fighting at the top of the classification and not the bottom.

But as Murray Walker said: “Anything can happen in Formula 1 and it usually does.”