Which wild-card contender could surprise MLB and crash the playoff party?

Baseball’s summer of continuity is nearly over. But that’s only because the weather is about to get cold.

On Friday, July 11, the San Francisco Giants lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers by a score of 2-1. That defeat, along with San Diego’s win over Philadelphia, flipped the two California clubs in the standings, with the Padres taking a half-game lead on the third NL wild-card spot.

Since that date, none of the 12 teams in playoff position has changed. Those dozen clubs — the Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, Mets, Tigers, Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners — have shuffled amongst themselves, but that block has remained unchanged for nearly two months. As things currently stand, the team in playoff position with the lowest odds is Seattle, at a still-sturdy 79.7%.

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But remember: One year ago, the Detroit Tigers woke up on Sept. 3 with 8.9% playoff odds. Their galavanting run to October had already begun, but the odds were still stacked against them. Right now, a number of teams are surely ruminating on, whispering about or vaguely gesturing toward those magical Tigers. “Why not us?” they’ll say. “Well, because what the 2024 Tigers did was absurd,” the baseball gods will reply.

Still, why wake up in the morning and drag your tush out of bed if you can’t irrationally convince yourself that with a little hard work and a sprinkle of luck, greatness is within reach. God knows I do it.

Anyway, here are the teams on the outside looking in, with a chance to spoil the playoff party.

Texas Rangers

Record: 72-68 (1.5 games back of wild card)

Remaining schedule: 1 vs. ARI, 6 vs. HOU, 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. MIA, 3 vs. MIN, 3 vs. CLE

Playoff odds: 16.2%

Don’t look now, but the Rangers are on a heater. Winners of six straight, Bruce Bochy’s squad has trampolined its way back into the playoff picture. Interestingly, most of the characters leading this surge were not around for the World Series revelry of 2023. Many of those guys — Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi — are on the IL, recovering from injuries of varying severity.

In their stead, the offense has been propelled by emerging star Wyatt Langford and the maybe-not-washed Joc Pederson. Rookie Jack Leiter also had a stellar August, giving Texas another frontline arm to pair with Jacob deGrom, who, miraculously, has stayed healthy all season.

The Rangers’ +92 run differential — third-best in the American League — is a startling mark for a 72-68 club. Texas’ swiss-cheese bullpen, a lack of timely hitting and a handful of blowouts have all combined to create that discrepancy. Still, this club has played well below its capabilities for most of the season. And with the gap between the Rangers and playoff baseball at a relatively minuscule 1.5 games, there’s more than enough time for more drama. For Bochy, who is rumored to be considering retirement this winter, one last ride at October glory could provide quite a fitting farewell.

Kansas City Royals

Record: 70-68 (2.5 games back)

Remaining schedule: 5 vs. LAA, 3 vs. MIN, 4 vs. CLE, 3 vs. PHI, 3 vs. SEA, 3 vs. TOR, 3 vs. ATH

Playoff odds: 9.7%

On June 30, Kansas City’s lineup ranked 28th in baseball in OPS and dead last in both runs and homers. The offense was essentially Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and seven other dudes doing their best. But since the start of July, the Royals’ bats have awakened with a vengeance, and the club ranks in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category. The underlying statistics are even better.

Vinnie Pasquantino — who has cornrows now, by the way — rediscovered his power stroke. The same goes for Salvador Perez. Deadline addition Mike Yastrzemski has provided a nice boost. Witt and Garcia haven’t stopped. Meanwhile, the pitching has done just enough. Kansas City is 31-22 since July 1, the fourth-best record in baseball over that span.

As with the Rangers, Kansas City’s playoff hopes hinge on whether the Seattle Mariners fumble the chili down the stretch. The Royals desperately need Seth Lugo, recently signed to an extension, to figure things out; he has been rough recently. But overall, there’s more than enough talent on this roster for a playoff charge. Don’t forget that this team won a postseason series last year with most of the same characters.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 69-69 (3.5 games back)

Remaining schedule: 1 vs. SEA, 4 vs. CLE, 3 vs CHW, 3 vs CHC, 7 vs. TOR, 3 vs BOS, 3 vs. BAL

Playoff odds: 4.2%

The Rays, besides the undeniably transcendent Junior Caminero, are downright unspectacular. Their rotation is fine. The rest of the lineup is fine. They run the bases well but have poor defensive numbers for a Rays team. They had a fine deadline at which they added Adrian Houser, who has been fine. Teams with serious playoff ambitions don’t typically offload expensive yet helpful players such as Ha-Seong Kim, as the Rays just did (even if getting his contract off the books for next year was a good move in the long run).

Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule also happens to be unforgiving from a travel perspective. They’re five games into a stretch of 23 games in 24 days. Their stadium situation — no roof, spring training ballpark — has been a source of adversity all year, and at this point, the Rays have one last shot to channel that into some wins. Caminero — 12 homers in August, tied for the MLB lead — is doing his best. But somebody else in this lineup (besides Yandy Díaz, who has been fine) needs to step up and do some damage.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 70-69 (5 games back)

Remaining schedule: 1 vs. TOR, 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. SDP, 3 vs. ATH, 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. CHC, 3 vs. PIT, 3 vs. MIL

Playoff odds: 2.8%

When the New York Mets slogged to a 2-16 stretch across late July and early August, the proverbial door to a wild-card spot was swung open for Cincinnati. But instead of stampeding through the breach, the Reds bonked their collective heads, repeatedly, into the door frame before stumbling head-over-heels back down the stairs. Cincinnati, simply, did not take advantage of a magnificent opportunity. As it stands, the Reds, one game under .500 since July 1, appear to be the embodiment of just OK.

Elly De La Cruz posted an awfully disappointing August, in which he trudged to a .601 OPS and failed to clock a single homer. Other crucial bats, such as Matt McLain, Austin Hays, Spencer Steer and TJ Friedl, have also fallen well short of expectations. But this rotation still kind of rules, especially now that Hunter Greene is back and cooking. If Cincy gets hot, the quintet of Greene, Nick Lodolo, Zack Littell, Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer will be the reason.

Unfortunately, though, it seems like the Reds had their window and missed it. Taking at least two of three this weekend against the Mets will be absolutely crucial if they are to change that.

San Francisco Giants

Record: 70-69 (5 games back)

Remaining schedule: 5 vs. COL, 6 vs. STL, 6 vs. ARI, 7 vs. LAD

Playoff odds: 2.6%

Well, well, well. Look who decided to show up.

The Giants traded for Rafael Devers on June 15, and while they still have MLB’s fifth-worst record since that date, San Francisco has been showing a few signs of life lately. Devers himself is on a hot streak, with a 1.020 OPS and 11 long balls over his past 30 games. Willy Adames has gotten going after a slow start to his first year in the Bay.

Unfortunately, that offensive jump has coincided with a step back from a pitching rotation that was pleasantly solid in the first half. The Giants are currently going to battle with three reliable starters: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander. The last starter spot — Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng — combined to allow a preposterous 26 earned runs across their past five starts.

There’s probably not enough runway here for San Francisco. A five-game deficit with 23 games to play is a daunting task. But the Giants are playing well! They’ve won four series in a row! Their schedule, besides seven against the Dodgers, is pretty favorable the rest of the way. Wilder things have happened.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 68-69 (4 games back)

Remaining schedule: 1 vs. BOS, 4 vs. TB, 4 vs. KC, 3 vs. CHW, 6 vs. DET, 4 vs. MIN, 3 vs. TEX

Playoff odds: 2.5%

Losing a generational, future Hall of Fame closer to a potentially career-ending gambling scandal was probably not on Cleveland’s vision board back in spring training. But while the Guardians have blown five saves in the month since Emmanuel Clase’s final outing, the club’s inability to hit the ball where the fielders aren’t standing is the biggest reason behind their microscopic playoff odds. In fact, the Guardians’ lineup just regurgitated one of the worst calendar months by wRC+ in recent MLB history.

Frankly, this has been a horrible offense all season; José Ramírez and Kyle Manzardo are the only hitters with above-average production. That these punchless Guardians and their pool-noodle bats are even tickling .500 is a testament to all the things this organization does well: pitching, defense, baserunning, finding value on the margins. Still, unless Ramírez goes god-mode in September, it’s tough to envision Cleveland clawing into October.