Where Giants can turn in free agency after missing out on Burnes originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
SAN FRANCISCO — Almost a decade ago, Giants officials went to bed on a Thursday night in December thinking that the next day would be a transformative one for the organization. They believed they had locked up a right-handed ace to join the homegrown one they had at the top of their rotation, but before they could truly begin to celebrate, the Arizona Diamondbacks came out of nowhere and signed Zack Greinke to a $206.5 million deal.
The Corbin Burnes situation wasn’t exactly the same, although it was eerily close. Burnes, like Greinke, is a former Cy Young Award winner who showed interest in finishing out his prime at Oracle Park. In 2015, the industry perception was that Greinke would choose between the Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. In recent weeks, the thought was that Burnes would choose the Giants or Toronto Blue Jays. Back then, it was Madison Bumgarner who was waiting for help. Right now, it’s Logan Webb.
The Giants were stunned when the Diamondbacks emerged from the shadows and signed Greinke, but they pivoted quickly, signing right-handers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to long-term deals. Bruce Bochy needed innings and there still were options beyond Greinke, and in the first year of their deals, at least, both Cueto and Samardzija were more effective than the one that got away.
The pivot isn’t nearly as obvious with Burnes, who did not get as far along in the process with the Giants as Greinke did.
As Burnes waited for the right fit in late December, the starting pitching market dried up. Sean Manaea returned to the New York Mets and Walker Buehler signed a prove-it deal with the Boston Red Sox, joining Blake Snell, Max Fried, Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and others who had previously found new deals. The best veteran pitcher left on the market is Jack Flaherty, but he has an uneven track record the last few years.
The best pitcher, period, is Roki Sasaki, and if the Giants win that race, it would certainly remove all of the sting of missing out on Burnes and others. The Giants have taken the Sasaki pursuit seriously and in a lot of ways, he’s exactly what the organization needs. But team officials would still be surprised if he ends up anywhere other than Los Angeles.
The other path would be to dedicate the remaining resources to upgrading the lineup, although the fits are not nearly as clean as Burnes or Willy Adames, who currently is the only addition of an offseason that is nearly over.
Pete Alonso is the biggest name and the Giants could certainly use his power, but their top prospect — Bryce Eldridge — is a first baseman who should be ready at some point in 2025, which would make it a scary proposition to commit nine figures to a position player who could be a full-time DH for most of the contract and doesn’t run or do a particularly good job of getting on base. Signing Alonso, who rejected a qualifying offer, would also cost the Giants additional draft picks, and they already are somewhat concerned about the draft capital they have sacrificed the past two years.
Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar would be better fits because of their ability to play the outfield, and with Mike Yastrzemski on the roster for one more year, the Giants could easily handle signing someone who would weaken their outfield defense in the early innings. They still have an open DH spot, although Bob Melvin would prefer not to use it on one player.
The best position player left on the market is Alex Bregman, but again he’s an imperfect fit. In theory, Bregman could play second base, and he’s the type of player who fits the mold Buster Posey is looking for, but that would be awfully risky for a regime that’s just getting going. There’s a decent chance Adames has to move off of shortstop during his long-term deal and committing somewhere in the neighborhood of $450 million to Matt Chapman, Adames and Bregman would be an odd use of resources for an organization that is intent on staying under the tax line.
The Giants could circle back to Ha-Seong Kim and try to sign both of this year’s top shortstops, with Kim playing second base once healthy. That would fit with the theme of being an organization committed to pitching and defense, although it would put Tyler Fitzgerald back in a utility role. One of last season’s bright spots, Fitzgerald only took off after the Giants committed to letting him play one position (shortstop) every day.
That brings all of this back to Burnes, who really was an ideal fit. Posey spoke passionately about his young pitching at the Winter Meetings, and it is an intriguing group, but at the same time, it’s clear the Giants know that they need more. They didn’t get to the finish line with Burnes, but they were certainly hopeful, and he’s not the only veteran pitcher they chased last month before watching him end up elsewhere.
If the goal still is to add to the rotation, Posey could turn to some pitchers he knows well. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are both out on the market and almost certain to sign one-year deals, given that they’re in their forties. Scherzer still was effective when healthy last year, and Verlander is just a year removed from a 3.22 ERA. Either future Hall of Famer would at least fit with Posey’s desire to provide a bit more entertainment value for fans.
The Giants would prefer to no longer give out the kind of opt-out deals that allowed Carlos Rodón and Snell to bolt after one season, but the best option at this point might be to find someone who wants to spend 2025 — and just 2025 — at Oracle Park. If their choice fails, they have enough young depth to cover the mistake. If they strike gold but they’re still not in contention, they can do what the previous regime did not and trade that veteran for prospects at the deadline.
Even in early January and even with so many potential additions now off the board, there are options, but the rest of the offseason will require creativity. Burnes was the cleanest fit, but like Greinke before him, he’ll be in a Diamondbacks jersey the next time he’s seen at Oracle Park.
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