What might Suarez hiring Boras mean for his future?

What might Suarez hiring Boras mean for his future? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez has hired Scott Boras as his agent, The Boras Corporation announced Monday on Instagram.

Suarez is entering a contract year and the decision to switch to Boras could be a signal that he intends to play out the season and reach free agency. Suarez has likely sat back and watched this offseason what pitchers in the tiers below and above him have made and set his sights high.

Switching agents doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that Suarez and the Phillies won’t be able to reach an extension before free agency. It could mean a couple of other things. He may be unhappy with how extension talks have progressed to this point and feels Boras has a better chance to advance them. Suarez could also feel that Boras is best equipped to discuss his future with potentially interested trade partners. Suarez, after all, has been the subject of trade rumors.

Despite his poor second half, Suarez is in line to earn a ton of money in his next deal. The two richest starting pitcher contracts signed so far this offseason have been Max Fried with the Yankees for $218 million over eight years and Blake Snell with the Dodgers for $182 million over five. Corbin Burnes will almost certainly blow past both numbers.

Suarez is not in that tier — perhaps he might be if he maintained his amazing first half of 2024 — but even the pitchers closer to his caliber have scored big contracts. These five in particular provide an early template:

Nate Eovaldi: 3 years, $75M (Rangers)

Luis Severino: 3 years, $67M (A’s)

Yusei Kikuchi: 3 years, $63M (Angels)

Frankie Montas: 2 years, $34M (Mets)

Matthew Boyd: 2 years, $29M (Cubs)

Eovaldi is four years older than Suarez will be when he reaches free agency. Severino, Kikuchi and Montas have not been as consistent as Suarez from year to year, and Boyd hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Yet three of them signed for between $21M and $25M over three-year deals and the other two made out well on two-year contracts.

Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and Jack Flaherty are three more pitchers whose free agencies Suarez will be closely monitoring this winter.

If you’re Suarez looking at the deals signed over the past month, there’s no reason an extension should begin below $25 million per year, and you’re likely setting the goal at five years. That’s not to say he’s a lock to find that contract a year from now, but the price of pitching is pointing that way.

The risk of not signing an extension, for Suarez or any other player, is injury. Dozens of pitchers suffer long-term elbow and shoulder injuries every season that alter or derail their careers. For some, it’s the difference between a nine-figure payday and a one- or two-year prove-it deal at age 30.

Suarez did deal with injury in 2024, missing the All-Star Game with back tightness and then a month from late July through late August with back soreness. His velocity waned as the season progressed, his sinker averaging under 90 mph in three of his final nine starts. Suarez’ success is driven more by location and movement than velocity, but there is a difference between what a pitcher can get away with at 92-93 vs. 89-90.

The Phillies have not been in the market for the most expensive starting pitchers like Burnes, Fried or Snell, but they have been linked this offseason to 23-year-old Japanese free agent Roki Sasaki and to several members of the Mariners’ rotation. Seattle is a team rich in pitching but devoid of offense. The Phillies, according to a Seattle Times report, asked the M’s for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby — two borderline aces — in exchange for Alec Bohm. Those two pitchers have significantly more trade value than Bohm, but Luis Castillo could be a fit.

Castillo is under contract for $68.25M over the next three seasons with a $25M vesting option in 2028. Given the cost of pitching in free agency, that’s an attractive number, basically the same deal as inferior arms in Severino and Kikuchi. Castillo took a step back from his lofty standard in 2024 but even in a down year still had a 3.64 ERA with 175 strikeouts in as many innings, delivering a season similar to Suarez.

The 32-year-old right-hander would make a lot of sense for the Phillies as an impactful rotation addition in the present, protection against losing Suarez in the future or an alternative to Suarez if they’re offered an interesting trade package for him sooner. Starting pitching is not the Phillies’ main need — improving the outfield offense is — but the Mariners remain one of the most logical trade fits for Bohm and that is their strength.