Though the Knicks are coming off their most successful season in 25 years, the club has more questions than answers as training camp rapidly approaches.
First on the docket of new head coach Mike Brown is determining what the starting lineup will be.
The Knicks have four set starters in Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns. The fifth starter remains the big question, with Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson as the two options for Brown to mull over.
Both players bring something different to the table. Hart is a versatile wing who does a lot of the dirty work. He’s one of the best rebounding perimeter players in the NBA and he was the only non-point guard on the roster capable of pushing the pace and creating transition scoring opportunities last season. Robinson is arguably the best offensive rebounder in the NBA and a quality rim protector.
The Knicks began last season with Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby, Hart, and Towns as the starting five. The grouping was successful early on, as New York led the NBA in offensive efficiency through the first 20 games.
However, the offense slowly fell down the rankings as opponents used strategies like having wings guard Towns while centers checked Hart, who was reluctant to launch at times. That stifled New York’s offense as centers like Ivica Zubac or Isaiah Hartenstein practically ignored Hart in favor of protecting the rim.
By the postseason, the starting lineup had become a weakness. New York was starting contests slowly constantly and it showed in the stats. The five-man unit was a negative 6.2 points per 100 possessions in 335 playoff minutes, per NBA Stats.
Then-Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau reacted late, finally inserting Robinson in favor of Hart in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. With Robinson on the floor with the four other starters, the Knicks were slightly better, but they were still outscored by 3.7 points per 100 possessions in a small sample size of 65 minutes during the postseason.
Go big or go home
The Knicks know how well the starting five with Hart has fared. It was the most used five-man combination in both the regular season and playoffs. By the end of the season, it felt as if opponents had figured out how to defend the group. There is much more to explore with Robinson, who missed 65 regular season games.
Towns and Robinson played well together during the playoffs. The two-center combination was plus 8.3 points per 100 possessions in 165 minutes together. The one worry with Robinson at the five is if it mutes Towns’ individual skills.
Robinson takes up space in the paint, which will likely leave Towns floating on the perimeter at times. According to PBP Stats, Towns’ at-rim shot frequency was 23.5 percent in 165 minutes with Robinson. In 474 minutes without Robinson, that number shoots up to 38 percent.
Also, Robinson’s presence in the paint could make it harder for New York’s other perimeter players like Brunson, Bridges and Anunoby to find opportunities to score in the paint.
But even if Robinson mucks up New York’s spacing, there’s no doubt that his offensive rebounding can have a positive effect. The big man led all players in offensive rebound rate during the postseason.
Defensive mindset
Robinson should settle New York’s defense, which was inconsistent throughout last season. The team finished 13th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Armed with a 7-4 wingspan, teams are not as aggressive when he’s patrolling the paint.
In Robinson’s 370 minutes on the floor, the Knicks gave up 109.0 points per 100 possessions. When the center was off the floor, New York conceded 113.3 points per 100 possessions. His presence around the basket will complement Towns’ defensive limitations well.
Hart’s style of play is useful as a reserve. With New York lacking a true point guard off the bench heading into this season, there’s more of an opportunity for Hart (5.9 assists last regular season) to be a change-of-pace player who allows the Knicks' second unit to get into transition and into their halfcourt offense quicker.
Expect Robinson to still have somewhat of a minutes limit. The Knicks can go to smaller lineups with Hart and recently-signed power forward Guerschon Yabusele.
For the Knicks to have a chance at a championship, the team’s defense has to be better. Starting Robinson presents the easiest path to achieving that goal.
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