The Minnesota Vikings appeared to be in a win-win situation at the quarterback position entering their regular-season finale.
They had Sam Darnold playing out of his mind, fresh off his first Pro Bowl nod and poised to lead the Vikings deep into the postseason. They also had rookie J.J. McCarthy stashed away on injured reserve, affording the team a rare blend of insurance and options at the QB position going forward.
Everything changed, however, over Minnesota’s final two games of the 2024 season.
The Vikings were throttled by the Detroit Lions, 31-9, in Week 18 on Sunday Night Football, in a game that decided the NFC North division title and No. 1 playoff seed. One week later, playing the Los Angeles Rams at a neutral site due to the L.A. wildfires, Minnesota was bounced from the playoffs, 27-9, in a game that felt over before halftime.
Darnold looked tight in those two games with the lights shining the brightest. He held the football and took 11 combined sacks — nine of them in the playoff game vs. the Rams — while completing a woeful 53% of his passes. His fumble that got returned for a touchdown by Rams star Jared Verse in the second quarter not only sealed Minnesota’s fate for 2024, but appeared to signal the start of the McCarthy era entering 2025.
Not so fast, warns ESPN staff writer Ben Solak.
Asked recently for his big prediction for the Vikings’ 2025 offseason, Solak dropped a seriously bold take, tabbing Darnold — not McCarthy — as the team’s QB of the future. Here was his full take:
I really, truly believe the Vikings will extend Darnold. They have the room for something in the Daniel Jones neighborhood — four years, $160 million is probably optimal, if they can get Darnold to sign that before another team in the free market offers him a whale of a deal. Depending on the size of the contract, they’ll either keep McCarthy or quietly look to trade him ahead of a bad quarterback draft class and see if a needy team takes the bait.
This take would have seemed reasonable about a month ago. How many teams are happy to let a Pro Bowl player walk in free agency?
For Minnesota, though, the risk of letting Darnold walk this offseason is mitigated by McCarthy’s rookie contract. The team could let Darnold sign elsewhere, hope to recoup a future compensatory pick — like the projected 2025 third-round selection they’re expecting for Kirk Cousins — and start building a championship roster around McCarthy immediately.
Even if a team like the New York Giants, for example, offered the No. 3 overall pick this year for McCarthy, the Vikings should decline. While it would be tempting to have a real shot at either Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter near the top of the draft, Vikings fans can rest easy knowing they have a 22-year-old QB on the roster that would likely be the sure-fire No. 1 overall pick this year. When you’re a franchise chasing a championship, that’s a rare luxury to have.
It’s one thing for Minnesota to seek a resolution that would keep Darnold in Minnesota for the short-term, extending the bridge to McCarthy as he works his way back from a pair of knee surgeries. But $40 million per year for Darnold, who turns 28 this summer and has never won a playoff game over his seven-year NFL career? Trading McCarthy before he ever plays a real NFL snap? That feels like the kind of decision that gets people fired, and ultimately comes back to haunt a franchise for decades.
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