The Minnesota Vikings appeared to draft their quarterback of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft, moving up one spot to secure Michigan star J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick.
One calendar year later, McCarthy’s value has taken a dip, to the point where some NFL analysts believe the team’s best path forward is to re-sign Sam Darnold to a multi-year contract as the team’s franchise QB.
McCarthy enters the new league year coming off multiple knee surgeries. After losing a year of valuable reps, as well as a year off his cheap rookie-scale contract, Minnesota now must weigh a potential step back in 2025 with McCarthy under center vs. looking to build on their 14-3 run with Darnold in 2024.
With a depleted draft board — the Vikings are projected to have an NFL-low four total selections in the 2025 NFL Draft — Aaron Schatz of ESPN is among those urging the Vikings to explore a blockbuster trade involving their now 22-year-old phenom QB prospect.
Schatz predicts the Vikings will re-sign Darnold long term, and subsequently trade McCarthy for a haul of draft picks. Here was his take on what would be a polarizing decision, not only for Vikings fans but those across the NFL world:
This seems like an absurd idea after the poor wild-card game Darnold had in the playoffs against the Rams, but that was just one game against a very strong, young defensive line. For the entire regular season, Darnold was surprisingly good, ranking 14th in QBR even after adjustments for the players around him. He will still be just 28 next season, and he probably could be signed for a similar contract to the one Daniel Jones signed with the Giants; the Vikings would have a reasonable out after a couple of seasons if Darnold does not continue to play at a high level.
Signing Darnold to a long-term deal would also allow the Vikings to trade McCarthy. He would likely be the top-ranked quarterback in the 2025 class if he was in the upcoming draft. McCarthy won’t garner a top pick because he has one less season on his rookie contract than Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward will have, but he could get the Vikings a package of picks that would help to replenish their draft allotment. The Vikings currently have just three picks in the 2025 draft — none in the second, third or fourth rounds — and likely a fourth pick when compensatory picks are handed out.
We agree with Schatz on one thing: This is an absurd idea.
Darnold’s poor playoff performance — let’s not leave out Week 18 at Detroit with the No. 1 seed on the line — is precisely the reason why Minnesota should let Darnold walk in free agency this offseason, assuming the team opts against an over $40 million franchise tag.
This would be a completely different discussion had the Vikings made a run to the NFC Championship Game. But the reality here is that the team looked completely overmatched in the two games that mattered most, and the quarterback was part of the problem. Darnold was indecisive, turned the ball over and took way too many sacks. To be fair, he doesn’t have a ton of big-game experience in his career, but that’s kind of the point here.
McCarthy is not only much younger and cheaper than Darnold, but he also has unknown potential. We haven’t seen him take real NFL snaps yet, and that makes trading him a scary proposition for the Vikings. If Darnold were to struggle, and McCarthy ends up being the same unflappable winner he was at Michigan for another team, the Vikings would never live that decision down.
With that said, the team should absolutely consider keeping both quarterbacks for 2025. If the team can make it work with Darnold on the franchise tag for 2025, the Vikings could get McCarthy caught up behind the scenes while remaining legitimate contenders in the NFC North. But moving on from McCarthy now, at depressed value, coming off a de facto redshirt year makes absolutely no sense at all.
Whether he plays in 2025 or not, McCarthy is and should remain Minnesota’s QB of the future.
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