The Western Conference’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will face the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The two franchises have not met in the playoffs since 1998, when the Thunder were still in Seattle, performing as the SuperSonics.
What we know about Oklahoma City
The Thunder were incredible throughout the regular season, becoming the seventh team ever to win 68 games and registering the second-best net rating (12.8) in league history. They were equally impressive in the first round of this year’s playoffs, outscoring the Memphis Grizzlies by a total of 78 points in a sweep.
OKC struggled against the Denver Nuggets in the second round, needing a seventh game to escape the series. This is understandable, since the Nuggets are a former champion led by Nikola Jokić, the world’s best player. It is also somewhat troubling, because Denver’s rotation was as beleaguered as we have seen in this injury-plagued postseason, and the Thunder often looked the part of the NBA’s youngest roster.
They are led by 26-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA’s likely MVP. He averaged a league-leading 32.7 points (on 52/38/90 shooting splits) during the regular season, adding 6.4 assists, 5 rebounds and 2.7 combined steals and blocks in 34.2 minutes per game. He was every bit as impressive against Denver.
Gilgeous-Alexander is supported by Jalen Williams, who made his first All-Star Game this season. The 24-year-old added a 22-5-5 on 48/37/80 splits in the regular season. He was, for the most part, less effective against Denver, emboldening questions about his preparedness as a second option on a title contender.
Williams did show up for Game 7 against Denver, as did Chet Holmgren, who might have made an All-Star team had he not lost three months to a fractured hip. Holmgren unlocks all types of lineup combinations with his ability to space the floor offensively and protect the rim defensively. He can man the center spot in a five-out setting or serve as a second big alongside Isaiah Hartenstein. Either grouping can be deadly.
Beyond their young Big Three is a collection of talented two-way players, including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins, among others. Their No. 1-rated defense — in the regular season and these playoffs, both by a wide margin — stifles opponents in relentless waves of aggression, and they rely on Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive creativity, flanked by shooting all over the floor, to carry them home.
What we know about Minnesota
The Timberwolves are back in the Western Conference finals for a second straight season, only they look different than they did last year. They began the season by trading former No. 1 overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. It was seen as a cost-cutting move that could make Minnesota worse in the short-term, and it looked to be headed that way at season’s start.
They were 22-21 on Jan. 20, owners of a middling offense. Their defense, anchored by four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, was still in the top 10, but the post-trade offense was a work in progress, as Randle navigated his place in the pecking order. Progress became production in the final three months of the regular season, as Minnesota posted a top-five offense, scoring 119.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Wolves have carried that momentum into the playoffs, defeating both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games. The Lakers lacked depth beyond LeBron James and Luka Dončić, and the Warriors were largely without Stephen Curry, but Minnesota did what it was supposed to do.
They are led by 23-year-old Anthony Edwards, an absolutely electric athlete. He averaged 27.6 points (45/40/84), 5.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.8 combined steals and blocks in 36.3 minutes a game in the regular season, making a third straight All-Star team. He has been as good, if not better, in the playoffs.
It is Randle, though, who has been the postseason revelation. Once a detriment to anything New York tried to do in the playoffs, Randle has averaged 23.9 points (51/35/89), 5.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game through two rounds for Minnesota, often taking on more difficult defensive assignments as well.
The Timberwolves are deep with talent, too. Mike Conley is a steady veteran hand at the point guard position. Jaden McDaniels is a two-way impact player on the wing. Their bench boasts last year’s Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid, along with DiVincenzo and Gilgeous-Alexander’s cousin, Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They go eight deep, and in these playoffs, as only the fittest survive, that is more than enough.
Head-to-head
The Thunder and Timberwolves tied their regular-season series, 2-2.
The four games were filled with unusual circumstances. Oklahoma City won the first meeting without either Holmgren or Caruso, as Minnesota committed 24 turnovers. The Wolves were without Randle, Gobert and DiVincenzo for the other three meetings, all of which occurred in a four-game span during February. Minnesota won two of those games, rallying from a 25-point deficit to seize one of them. And OKC won one of its games with its best shooting performance of the season. It all felt … unrepeatable.
[Goodwill: Why Thunder vs. Wolves is an irresistible series]
Except for the turnovers. The Thunder have forced more than any other team, both in the regular season and the playoffs, and they followed suit in their games against the Wolves. OKC scored 51 points off 37 turnovers in its two victories against Minnesota. The Wolves limited those figures to 25 points off 23 turnovers in their two wins. Limit the Thunder’s transition opportunities, and Minnesota has a chance.
Otherwise, the Wolves’ starting lineup — Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Randle and Gobert — played just 12 of the team’s 192 minutes against the Thunder this season, outscoring their Holmgren-less opponents by four points. Likewise, OKC’s starters — Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Holmgren and Hartenstein — played 29 minutes this season against a Minnesota roster without three rotation players, finishing +1.
Matchup to watch
Anthony Edwards vs. Oklahoma City’s swarming perimeter defense
Earlier in the season, Edwards complained of being double-teamed, conceding to reporters, “It’s not how I want to play,” and, “I’m trying to figure it out,” but, “I don’t know what to do honestly.” The playoffs have shown how much Edwards has grown this season alone, as he handled the Lakers’ and Warriors’ pressure.
OKC’s many perimeter defenders can make opponents feel like they are being double-teamed, even as only one of them assumes the assignment. They succeeded in limiting Edwards during the regular season, holding him to 22.3 points (on 36/32/83 shooting splits) and six assists (against 3.5 turnovers) per game.
Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves sets the play around Alex Caruso #9 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the third quarter at Paycom Center on February 24, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. (Photo by William Purnell/Getty Images)
(William Purnell via Getty Images)
Nobody defended Edwards more in the regular season than Dort, a likely All-Defensive selection. He was matched up with Edwards for a total of 30 minutes, according to the NBA’s tracking data, holding the All-NBA wing to 6-for-16 shooting and forcing a handful of turnovers. That cannot continue for Minnesota. Edwards has to be more forceful, and he has been in the second half of the season and into the playoffs.
It has helped Edwards that Randle has emerged as a high-level secondary option in this postseason. Double-team Edwards, and Randle has been receiving the ball with a man advantage. Single-cover him, though, and Randle is caught in the same swarm as Edwards. That dance — whether the Thunder need to double Edwards, and how Randle responds to either — will be where this series is won or lost.
It may sound simple that Edwards and Randle, Minnesota’s two best players, have to play well in order for the Wolves to win. It is more about how they play well. If both can succeed in man-to-man situations, they will force help from the Thunder, freeing up space for each other. That is how basketball works. But things do not often work as well as you would like against the relentlessness of the league’s best defense.
Crunch-time lineups
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder’s starting lineup — Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Holmgren and Hartenstein — is also Oklahoma City’s most-used quintet in fourth quarters of playoff games. While Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault has played Caruso in some small-ball lineups late in games, OKC’s starting five has also played the team’s most clutch minutes. That unit outscored opponents by 15 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. They are only +2 for the entire playoffs. And they have barely faced Minnesota this year.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Conversely, the Wolves have mostly abandoned Gobert in crunch-time situations and slotted Reid in at center instead, along with Conley, Edwards, McDaniels and Randle. That unit is an outstanding +39 in 20 fourth-quarter minutes in the playoffs. It will be most interesting to see, should Minnesota sustain that output, if the Thunder adjust, matching the Wolves’ small-ball outfit. Both teams have counters, and both teams are comfortable playing big and small, so which team will dictate how the other has to play?
Prediction: Thunder in 6
I think Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series, though Edwards will have his say. And I think the Thunder have more depth, though an eight-man rotation may be all Minnesota needs to match it. In the end, I will trust that OKC’s 93-game sample size is proof it belongs among the greatest teams ever.
Series betting odds
(Via BetMGM)
Oklahoma City Thunder: -350
Minnesota Timberwolves: +280
Series schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: Tuesday @ Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
Game 2: Thursday @ Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
Game 3: Saturday @ Minnesota (8:30 p.m., ABC)
Game 4: Mon., May 26 @ Minnesota (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
*Game 5: Wed., May 28 @ Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
*Game 6: Fri., May 30 @ Minnesota (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
* Game 7: Sun., June 1 @ Oklahoma City (8 p.m., ESPN)
*if necessary
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