Yes, it’s true that you can’t win a division in April. In the season’s first week and a bit, though, the Yankees have done their very best. Writing ahead of Saturday evening’s (ultimately successful) showdown with the Marlins, New York was a sterling 6-1, the best record in baseball behind a staff that’s been very difficult to square up. Crucially, this run has happened at the same time the Red Sox, one of the teams expected to battle in a three-team race atop the AL East, fell to 2-5, while the Blue Jays were a fine-if-unimpressive at 4-3.
This first round of games has translated to some pretty interesting, if a little-too-early to be predictive, changes in playoff odds. FanGraphs had the Yankees a 38.3-percent chance to win the East, with a 71-percent overall chance of making the playoffs. Compare that to 23.8/61.2 percent and 17.9/53 percent for the Sox and Jays respectively, and the Bombers were considered slim favorites to return another division title.
This hot start has the Yankees in a much better position relative to their division rivals:
The club now has by this calculation a better chance than the field in total to end up winning the East, and while turnarounds can absolutely happen, the bottom may well end up falling out of a Red Sox team that came into the season with high expectations.
So that’s where we stand right now — as I’m typing this the White Sox have done us a solid by taking the second straight game over the Blue Jays — but more important is what’s about to happen. The Yankees will finish the series with the Marlins on Sunday, before embarking on 16 straight games where on paper they should be significant favorites.
Between April 7th and 21st, series come against the Athletics, Rays, Angels, Royals, and Red Sox, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the Yankees to come out with 11 or so wins from that run, barring something catastrophic happening to the pitching staff. Those are not teams playing particularly well and 10 of the 16 contests will be played in the Bronx, where the Yankees historically have maintained an above-average home-field advantage.
Then again, we’ve seen this movie before.
Two years ago the Yankees went into a spin dropping series to the then-dregs that were the Nationals, Reds, and Pirates. Last year they were swept by these very same Marlins while losing three of four to the Angels and a bad series loss to Texas. It should go without saying that winning any one of those three series likely would have secured the Yankees the AL East, forcing the Blue Jays into a Wild Card Series, and from there who knows how differently the playoff picture could have turned out?
The sun is shining and there is proverbial hay to be made in the next two weeks. Taking this early stretch from a hot ten days to a hot three weeks would build a serious 2022 Yankees-esque cushion atop the division, and yes Michael Kay, one can’t win the division in April, but you can make it damn hard to lose it (we just wouldn’t recommend following the October fate of that team). If the seemingly-annual June Swoon is a real phenomenon, piling up these wins against teams you should beat early becomes even more important.
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