The leading contenders for victory at the 2025 Dakar Rally

The 2025 Dakar Rally promises to be one of the most exciting in recent history, with several manufacturers and drivers capable of winning the famous Touareg trophy.

The rally-raid will begin on 3 January with the Prologue in Bisha and conclude on 17 January in Shubaytah after 12 stages and more than 5,000 kilometres of running across Saudi Arabia.

Here’s a list of drivers considered to be the favourites for top honours in the Ultimate category:

Having scored victory for Audi on its farewell appearance in Dakar, Carlos Sainz Sr is now embracing a new challenge with Ford and M-Sport.

The Spaniard may be 62 years old, but he is taking on Dakar with the same enthusiasm as always. If he wins in 2025, it would be his fifth overall triumph in Dakar, although it won’t be an easy feat as the Raptor is still in its early days of competition and hasn’t accrued mileage in an event of this scale.

Ford was able to put the car through its paces in Rally Morocco, where Sainz came close to a stage win before being hit by technical troubles. But compared to some of the other vehicles in the field, Ford’s new challenger is still a relatively unproven quantity.

That said, Sainz has to be considered a favourite for victory given his extensive appearance in Dakar. Having participated in the event a total of 17 times with a wide variety of manufacturers and taken 42 stage wins and four overall victories, it would be foolish to rule him out of this year’s reckoning.

#200 Nasser Racing Prodrive Hunter: Nasser Al-Attiyah

Photo by: A.S.O.

Hailing from the Middle East, Nasser Al-Attiyah is always a serious threat in Dakar Rally. With five overall wins in 20 appearances, plus 11 podiums and 48 individual stage wins, he is now within touching distance of Stephane Peterhansel and Ari Vatanen’s records on four wheels.

Although the Dacia Sandrider is a new car, Al-Attiyah will be able to count on the experience Prodrive gained in the development of the Hunter. Moreover, the Renault Group carried out a demanding testing programme to get everything ready for January. The hard work already paid off with victory in the Rally Morocco, making Dacia the manufacturer to beat in Saudi Arabia.

Sebastien Loeb

Sebastien Loeb, Dacia Sandrider

Photo by: Dacia

One of the greatest rally drivers of all time, Sebastien Loeb continues to chase a maiden victory in Dakar. Having been on the starting line on eight occasions and scored 28 stage wins and five overall podiums, he is still targeting the big prize to add to his nine titles in the World Rally Championship.

Last year, a setback in the final stages prevented him from fighting for the overall win with the Prodrive-built and Bahrain-sponsored Hunter. Known for his incredible single-stage speed, he would be hoping to finally get everything right this time around.

The Frenchman also played a leading role in the development of the Sandrider and came close to being the top performer within the Dacia contingent in Morocco.

Nani Roma, M-Sport NWM

Photo by: M-Sport

Nani Roma is gunning for a third overall victory in Dakar, having triumphed on bikes in 2004 and won in the cars category exactly a decade later.

The Spaniard wants to bring joy to his entire family after an accident involving his son, who is able to walk again with the help of an exoskeleton.

Roma will be a major part of Ford’s attack with M-Sport and his wisdom, which proved key to his victory in Baja Hungary with the Raptor, will be on display once again.

#201 Overdrive Racing Toyota Hilux Overdrive: Yazeed Al-Rajhi, Timo Gottschalk

Photo by: A.S.O.

Yazeed Al-Rajhi will once again have home advantage in Dakar in 2025. Having competed in the rally 10 times and even finished on the podium, he knows what it is like to lead the rally in difficult conditions. He held the top spot in 2024 early on until an accident forced him to pull out of the rally.

Al-Rajhi can be very fast on occasion and is active in cross-country competition the entire year, having fought for the 2024 World-Rally Raid title until the final stages of the season.

With a well-known Toyota Hilux T1+ operated by Overdrive Racing, he has the machinery under his belt to mix with the big boys. But only time will tell if he has the patience to make it to the end.

Lucas Moraes

#206 Toyota Gazoo Racing Toyota GR DKR Hilux: Lucas Moraes

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

The new generation is making its presence felt in Dakar and Toyota youngster Lucas Moraes is considered one of the best among the fresh bunch.

Moraes surprised everyone by finishing on the podium on his debut in Dakar in 2023. A slew of problems meant he finished only ninth last time out but the experience he gained on the Hilux in 2024 makes him a genuine contender for victory on his third attempt.

In addition, he can count on Spanish co-pilot Armand Monleon, who helped him finish third in W2RC this year.

Mattias Ekstrom

Mattias Ekstrom, M Sport

Photo by: Ford Performance

Although better known for his circuit racing exploits, Mattias Ekstrom is also extremely capable when it comes to rallying in the desert. A quick look at his exploits in Extreme E, Dakar and even the World Rallycross Championships shows he is a safe pair of hands no matter the terrain he is driving on.

Ekstrom played an important role in Sainz’s victory in Dakar last January, but for a driver synonymous with Audi, 2025 marks a new chapter in his career. The Swede has been recruited as part of Ford’s attack and, together with Sainz and Roma, he will be one of the drivers to beat with the new Raptor.

Honourable Mentions

#209 Toyota Gazoo Racing Toyota GR DKR Hilux: Giniel de Villiers

Photo by: Toyota Racing

There are several other drivers who shouldn’t be discounted for victory, particular in an event like Dakar which can be so unpredictable.

The most experienced name is 2009 event winner Giniel de Villiers. With 21 participations and a factory Toyota under him, he has a strong chance of taking a second career win.

Another Toyota driver capable of challenging for the top spot is Seth Quintero, who recorded 12 stage victories in the Challenger category in 2022. Although the American had a difficult time after stepping up to the main division in 2024, he has all the tools to fight for victory.

Rokas Baciuska, who is making his debut after being world champion in the two lower categories, is another driver to watch out for. He will also be driving a Toyota Hilux, albeit one entered by the privateer Overdrive team. Baciuska will not have his usual co-driver Oriol Vidal, who chose to focus on professional cycling, but will be able to count on former motorcycle rider Oriol Mena as his navigator.

Meanwhile, Toby Price and Sam Sunderland are also making the switch from two wheels to four in another Overdrive-entered Toyota Hilux. Price will be in charge of driving, with Sunderland assisting him from the co-driver’s seat. Together, they have four victories in Dakar’s bikes category on their CVs, all on KTM machinery.

Cristina Gutierrez, the winner of the T3 category this year, will form a part of Dacia’s attack on Dakar. Given her past experience in rallying and off-road racing, she shouldn’t be discounted from this year’s event.

Another dark horse could be Mitch Guthrie Jr, who is part of a Ford contingent that includes big-ticket drivers like Sainz, Ekstrom and Roma.

Guillaume de Mevius, whose second place finish in Dakar with Overdrive is often overlooked, could also spring a surprise as he joins Mini in 2025.