The key questions ahead of WRC Rally Estonia

The World Rally Championship begins the second half of the campaign this weekend with the title race finely poised ahead of the first fast gravel rally of the year in Estonia.

Hampered by starting first on the road on rough gravel rallies in Portugal, Sardinia and Greece, Toyota’s Elfyn Evans has witnessed his championship lead whittled down to nine points over team-mate Sebastien Ogier, contesting only a partial season, and who is absent in Estonia.

But it is Hyundai’s Ott Tanak, the championship’s in-form driver, that is perhaps Evans’ most serious threat. Tanak claimed his and the Korean marque’s first win since October in Greece last month to sit 12 points behind Evans with the very real prospect that the points lead could change hands this weekend.

Here are the key talking points this weekend.

Can Hyundai continue its momentum after Acropolis breakthrough?

Hyundai has focused much of its development of the i20 N on improving its pace on smooth, fast gravel rallies such as Estonia and Finland. This weekend will hopefully provide an answer as to whether it has closed the gap to Toyota on this surface.

After finally ended Toyota’s 100% winning start to the season in Greece last month, building on that momentum could be crucial for not only Tanak’s growing title bid, but Thierry Neuville’s championship defence, that has stalled after a crash and series of punctures derailed victory chances in Sardinia and Greece.

Competing on roads where he is most familiar, Tanak has been tipped among the favourites for a second WRC Rally Estonia win following his 2020 success. This weekend also offers a realistic chance for Tanak to snatch the championship lead from Evans. Although the former had been struggling with the front end of his car in Thursday’s shakedown and isn’t convinced he has the machinery to compete for the win.

“At the moment it [car] is definitely not optimum to take the fight for the win here, we will just try to manage.” Tanak told Autosport. “I can’t say I have much confidence for what is needed here to attack in the corners. At the moment it is quite numb for me in the car to get the confidence, you really need to overdrive it. I don’t think I’m much of a rival for Kalle [here].”

Neuville, desperate for a strong result, was more positive, but admitted there are some tweaks to the car set up required.

“The car is not too bad. The most important thing is I feel quite comfortable in the car. There are few things we are trying to improve and I will do some analysis before we take the final decision for the start set up but overall I think it’s pretty decent,” said Neuville.

“Hopefully we get it right very quickly because those little things can make the difference. It is not an event where I will be the most competitive in terms of driving and confidence. It is a very fast event and you need to take a lot of risks and that is not what I prefer. My realistic target would be P2.”

Has Rovanpera found the answer to unlock gravel pace?

Kalle Rovanpera has so far struggled to gel with Hankook’s gravel tyres this year, but there is an air of confidence from the Finn that he can fight for the win this weekend.

The two-time world champion has openly admitted that Estonia is his favourite on the calendar having won the last three WRC editions of the event, including an utter domination in 2023. The early signs seemed to be pointing towards a strong weekend for Rovanpera after topping Thursday’s shakedown by 0.9s.

Kalle Rovanperä, Jonne Halttunen, Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT Toyota GR Yaris Rally1

Photo by: Toyota Racing

“You never really know before the proper stages, but obviously in the test and in the shakedown the feeling is much better than it has been this year,” Rovanpera told Autosport. “There are similar things with the tyres that need work but I can compensate more when I’m comfortable in the car. I think here my natural way works a bit better already, so it is not such a big struggle.

“There is always a chance of the win. It depends how we go tomorrow as that is very different to the shakedown. Tomorrow we will see where we are, and here we know to push and how to be fast. We try to do everything we can.”

Sitting 33 points adrift of Toyota team-mate Evans, a victory here could lift Rovanpera back into the title race ahead of Rally Finland.

“We need this rally and the next one to be good for us and get good points,” he added.

Will Evans be able to fight at the front from first on the road?

Elfyn Evans will once again face the disadvantage of starting first on the road although a period of rain prior to the rally could prove valuable for the championship leader.

Despite the road order disadvantage, Evans has recorded an average points score of 21.4 per round which is higher than Neuville achieved on his run to the title at this point in the season.

The Welshman is hopeful that a podium is not out of the question, but feels Rovanpera and Tanak will be tough to beat.

Elfyn Evans, Scott Martin, Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT Toyota GR Yaris Rally1

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

“It is definitely going to dry but there are bits under the trees that seemed to be pretty muddy even in places. This first stage on Friday, a lot of that is under cover so that should remain consistent for everyone,” said Evans. “I would hope so [that we can challenge for a podium], but time will tell how competitive we are. We will see what is possible.”

Can Sesks recapture his smooth gravel speed?

M-Sport-Ford’s Martins Sesks burst onto the WRC scene last year thanks to his blistering pace on fast gravel rallies in Poland and Latvia, but this season has proved a much tougher challenge.

Coming back to high-speed gravel stages in Estonia that suit Sesks’s style could offer a glimpse of the pace that lit up the timing screens last year.

“This is the closest event to home and it has been great to see lots of Latvian flags and support and it brings more joy to the job we are doing,” said Sesks. “I’m really bad at predictions this year. I think some competitive times through the rally would be nice to see. The biggest key is consistency.”

When asked if he could draw from the speed that saw him challenge for a podium in Latvia last year, he added: “The feeling is a bit different this year with the car and everything so I’m still trying to find the sweet spot.”

What can be expected from Solberg on his Rally1 return?

There will be plenty of eyes on Oliver Solberg as the Swede makes his Rally1 return this weekend after receiving an opportunity from Toyota.

Solberg maintains that the priority from his first Rally1 drive since 2022 is to simply finish the rally. In shakedown the new Toyota Rally1 recruit was fifth fastest which could suggest the pace is there to challenge for a strong result.

Oliver Solberg, Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT

Photo by: Toyota Racing

“The feeling in the car is already quite good,” he said. “I have found a good window on the car set up already but there is still a lot to learn about the car to get a proper feeling to go 100%. I would say the feeling is 95%, but that is where I will try to keep it this weekend.

Will fuel system issues be a factor?

Fuel system issues were a huge talking point in Acropolis Rally Greece as M-Sport-Ford and Toyota were forced to retire cars.

The FIA launched an investigation into the matter and has communicated that TotalEnergies, which stepped in to replace P1 Racing Fuels after it went into administration earlier this year, will continue to supply fuel for the remainder of the season.

To prevent a repeat of the issue that Rally1 teams encountered in Greece, the FIA will allow teams to fit new fuel tanks and use different materials, without the cost of a homologation joker as preventative measures. It is understood that this option has been taken by Toyota, Hyundai and M-Sport.

“We have done what the FIA have recommended to do which is to change the specification of fuel cell,” Hyundai team principal Cyril Abiteboul told Autosport. “Hopefully this will sort out the problem even if this is a preventive measure and a reaction as we didn’t have those issues in Greece. We want to be aligned with the other competitors, and with the direction from the FIA, we decided to do it.”