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Sweet 16 bold predictions: Which No. 1 seed is most at risk? Who makes Final Four?

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Well, that was a fun first weekend. What other craziness is in store for the second one?

Sixteen teams remain in the Men’s NCAA Tournament, and by the end of the weekend, four of them will be left and heading to Indianapolis. March Madness 2026 has delivered with some incredible finishes. There’s every reason to believe the trend will continue in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

Some of the bold predictions from the start of the tournament didn’t materialize, but there were a few that did come true. So, it’s time to take another swing and share the bold predictions of what will happen in the last push to the Final Four.

RE-SEEDING THE SWEET 16: Separating the contenders from pretenders

SWEET 16 PREDICTIONS: Experts pick who will advance in March Madness

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Men’s Sweet 16 players to watch during March Madness

How sweet it is. Sixteen teams remain in the March Madness 2026 tournament. Here are some top players and matchups to watch.
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue Texas: Matas Vokietaitis

Arizona-Arkansas, Michigan-Alabama light up scoreboard

Get ready to watch points galore with some incredible offenses going against each other.

Of the 16 teams left, four of them are in the top 13 of scoring, and even better, they’ll play each other. The nation’s top offense in Alabama (91.6 ppg) faces Michigan, which is ninth (87.4). Both teams scored at least 90 points in their first two games, and they will surely pass that.

In the West, the second-best scoring team in Arkansas (90.2 ppg) goes up against Arizona, 13th in the country (86.1 ppg). Given how the Razorbacks’ scoring defense ranks 331st out of 365 teams, the Wildcats are going to be scoring at-will, and Arkansas has the talent to match it. As a result, we get two games where both teams pass the century mark.

Don’t blink in these two matchups, or you’ll miss a flurry of points.

Another No. 1 seed goes down

The chance at an all-No. 1 seed Final Four is gone. Three remain. Expect another to get knocked out.

Arizona and Michigan have looked nearly perfect, but clearly have to deal with potent offenses that can be overwhelming. Also, Duke has to face a red-hot St. John’s team. There’s a storm brewing for one of the top seeds, and as a result, only a maximum of two will get in.

As a bonus: the team that gets bounced first will be the Blue Devils, who clearly have some holes that can be exposed by the Red Storm or its Elite Eight opponent, extending the search for Jon Scheyer’s first championship as coach.

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See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

Iowa State Cyclones fans cheer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri.

Dan Hurley costs his team

You know the court gets hot when Hurley is on the sideline, but he may raise the temperature too much for his team to survive.

Connecticut will be in a classic against Michigan State with the game hanging in the balance in the final minutes. Something will happen, whether it’s a foul call or missed one, that will get Hurley fuming at the officials. Referees try to be lenient when its the postseason, but the coach will go too far and get a technical foul, and possible double-T to giving the Spartans critical free throws that will make the margin too difficult for the Huskies to overcome.

Michigan State pulls through and the questions afterward will be if Hurley is to blame on the loss. Be on the lookout for a memorable press conference.

Houston cruises to Final Four

No team has a better draw to Indianapolis than Houston. Not only do they get a favorable path in facing Illinois and either Nebraska or Iowa, but the Cougars get to play in their own city. It doesn’t get much better for Kelvin Sampson’s team, which has looked completely dominant so far.

With all the momentum and great matchups, Houston doesn’t just win, but does it easily with double-digit victories in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. The blowout wins make it one of the most impressive runs to the Final Four as it’s on a warpath to get back to the title game.

Last season finally broke Houston’s second weekend struggles, where it was eliminated for three straight seasons before finally getting back to the Final Four. The Cougars get back-to-back appearances for the first time since “Phi Slama Jama” rocked the world.

Rick Pitino makes more history

No matter where he goes, success always finds Pitino. Now in 2026, he etches his name further as one of the best coaches of all-time.

St. John’s has flipped the script from the beginning of the season to looking like a bona fide title contender, playing with a sense of swagger needed this time of year. The Red Storm not only take down top overall seed Duke, but they get past the Elite Eight to make their first Final Four since 1985. With the achievement, Pitino becomes the first coach to get four programs to the semifinals.

The path to the first national championship looks tough, but it will cap off the remarkable turnaround in New York City.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness Sweet 16 bold predictions: Which top seed will get upset?

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