Welcome to the first edition of the Starting Pitcher News column. Each week, I’ll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch.
The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher’s outlook. Only now, I won’t just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to see if the recent changes we’re seeing are worth buying into or just mirages.
Each week, I’ll try and cover at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you’ll find it useful, so let’s get started.
All the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also has a great chart feature, which allows you to see how the whole arsenal plays together.
Jordan Hicks – San Francisco Giants (Velocity increase)
I will admit that I’ve never been a huge fan of the idea of Jordan Hicks as a starter. I understand the allure of his velocity and the fact that his stuff played up in the bullpen, but I just never believed it would transition into the starting rotation. To a certain extent, it didn’t last year. Hicks did post a solid 4.10 ERA, but it came with a 1.45 WHIP and only 109.2 innings of work. I was fully out heading into this season.
While Hicks’ spring training hasn’t been great, something popped out in his last start that we should take note of.
That’s Hicks averaging 97.4 mph on his sinker and four-seam fastball, up almost three miles per hour from last year. He also did that into the fifth inning, so it wasn’t just a spike in the game’s early innings. The results were obviously there with seven called strikes, four whiffs, and a 32.4% CSW on the sinker. That velocity gain also carried over to the four-seam fastball he uses against lefties, but he didn’t have as much success in this last start. That concerns me a little since his sweeper is less effective against lefties and the splitter appears to be taking a backseat, which makes sense since it’s a volatile pitch. However, it all does mean that Hicks could have more trouble with left-handed hitters.
We should also note that the sweeper has seemed different this spring. As you can see from the chart above, the pitch is 1.5 mph harder, but that has come with almost four inches of added drop and significantly less horizontal movement. In his final start, it performed well as a swing-and-miss offering, but I’m not sure the changes make a ton of sense. Last season, Hicks’ sweeper posted a 15.3% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and a 28.8% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR), which are both above-average. However, he did also have below-average strike rates and zone rates on the pitch, so Hicks may be trying to tighten the pitch up to make it easier to command. If that trade-off costs him swinging strikes, I’m not sure if it’s a net positive.
At the end of the day, I’m still not a huge believer in Jordan Hicks as a starter, and I think Hayden Birdsong could push him back to the bullpen by the summer; yet, I’m willing to take a gamble on Hicks with this increased velocity I may keep him on the bench for his first start against Houston but could fire him up against the Mariners in the next one.
Landen Roupp – San Francisco Giants (Cutter, Kick-change)
The biggest news out of San Francisco this weekend may have been that Landen Roupp was named the Giants’ fifth starter. Despite Hayden Birdsong getting a lot of attention for his strong spring, Roupp also had an impressive spring of his own with a 3.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 14/1 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. A lot of that success came with a revamped pitch mix.
In 2024, Roupp pitched the majority of his innings out of the bullpen, so we might not have a complete sense of his arsenal, but he threw his curve 44% of the time, his sinker 41% of the time, and then mixed in a changeup and slider. A big concern with that approach is that both his curve and sinker were significantly worse against lefties. The sinker didn’t get hit hard, but it had just a 1.6% SwStr% and was not commanded well against lefties, which suggests a lack of confidence since Roupp commanded it really well against righties. Also, his curve posted just a 7.7% SwStr% to lefties and had just a 10% PutAway rate, despite being his primary two-strike pitch to lefties.
To address those concerns, Roupp added a cutter this off-season that could operate as his primary fastball to lefties and modified his changeup to add more horizontal run. Some of that changeup alteration could simply be the result of a slightly lower arm angle, but it seems like Roupp is working to add more run on his sinker and changeup by dropping his arm slot a little bit. That could give him more swing-and-miss potential against lefties with a changeup that comes in around 88mph and plays well off of his sinker. The cutter, or harder slider, could also serve as a strike pitch to lefties that he can use to jam them inside. That will set up the success of the changeup low and away.
All of that now gives Roupp a clear four-pitch mix, and he has also talked about using his four-seam fastball more, which would give him five pitches and a clear plan against both righties and lefties. While I know he doesn’t have the eye-popping velocity of Birdsong, Roupp consistently posted above a 30% strikeout rate in the minors, and this deeper pitch mix makes him one of my favorite early-season waiver wire adds. While I might not start him at Houston, I want Roupp on my bench in case his arsenal all comes together like I think it can and he becomes a big FAAB target for my competition.
Richard Fitts- Boston Red Sox (Cutter, Curve, Kick-change)
What a find Richard Fitts has been for the Red Sox. He was acquired from the Yankees, along with Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice, for Alex Verdugo last season, and the Red Sox quickly went to work reshaping his arsenal. Those tweaks continued in the offseason, and Fitts showed up to spring training sporting added velocity, a new cutter, curveball, and kick-change.
The velocity itself is nice, with his four-seamer up 1.5 mph from last year. Considering Fitts also has elite extension and iVB on the pitch, the four-seamer has the makings of an offering that can thrive up in the strike zone. He has pounded the zone with it well in spring training, and he does have a sinker he can use inside to righties, which could help the added velocity of the four-seamer play up.
The added cutter for Fitts might also be a bit of a gyro slider, but we do know that it’s a modification from the slider he threw last season. The pitch is almost two mph harder with less horizontal movement. So far in spring, he has used it more to right-handed hitters, which makes me think he’s not using it as a true cutter but as more of a gyro slider to create separation from his sweeper, which is his primary whiff pitch to righties. The increased velocity on the harder slider now creates a three mph gap between the sweeper with significantly less horizontal break, which you can see in the chart below with the sweeper dots in pink and the slider dots in purple. Although they attack similar areas, the added movement of the sweeper should add to the deception of his arsenal with the slider staying in the zone for strikes and the sweeper moving off the plate for swings-and-misses.
You can also see a new wrinkle in here with Fitts’ changeup showcased by the green dots. Fitts is now throwing a kick-change that comes in at 89 mph with 10.5 inches of armside run, similar to the 12 inches on his sinker (yellow dots above). You can see how they would attack the same part of the plate, away to lefties, but the changeup dives down in the zone. The only issue here is that Fitts doesn’t throw the sinker to lefties, so the two pitches can’t play off of one another. However, Fitts’ sweeper is better as a swing-and-miss offering to righties, so it’s clear that the inclusion of the kick-change and curveball is his way of trying to find a solid PutAway pitch to lefties as well. So far, his command of the curve has been good, and he posted a 36.4% CSW with it in his last start, which is promising.
At the end of the day, we have a young pitcher who is throwing almost two mph harder and now has a true six-pitch mix that he can use against hitters of both handedness. That should excite us. Yes, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito don’t figure to be out for a long time, so Fitts may not have a long leash in the rotation, but there wre rumblings that the Red Sox were open to a six-man rotation to help keep everybody healthy, so if Fitts is pitching well, Bello and Giolito coming back would bump Sean Newcomb from the rotation and the Red Sox could keep a six-man rotation with Fitts still involved. Given how he has looked this spring and that he starts the season in Texas and against the Cardinals, two matchups I’m not running from, I’m inclined to throw Fitts on my bench and see how this all goes.
AJ Smith Shawver – Atlanta Braves (Confirmed rotation spot)
Over the weekend, the Braves traded Ian Anderson to the Angels, freeing up a rotation spot for AJ Smith-Shawver. The 22-year-old was solid this spring with a 3.94 ERA but 20 strikeouts and five walks in 16 innings. That strikeout upside made him a trendy add in fantasy leagues on Sunday night, but I have some concerns about Smith-Shawver to begin the season.
For starters, he has not posted an ERA under 4.00 since he pitched 21 innings at High-A and Double-A in 2023. He had a 4.17 Triple-A ERA in 2023 and a 4.86 mark last year. Now, he was young for the level, which we need to keep in mind, but he also has had command issues that have always led to double-digit walk rates. That’s not ideal.
The pitch mix itself is fine. Smith-Shawver relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which sits 96 mph, but can reach the upper 90s with above-average extension and iVB. It’s a flat fastball that plays well up in the zone and can miss bats. He pairs that with an improved changeup that had the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches in 2024 and a curveball that he added in 2023 and has plenty of vertical movement with good command. He also features a hard slider that looks like a swing-and-miss spitch but wasn’t used in his brief MLB innings in 2024.
That’s a package that could lead to MLB success, provided he can show gains in his command that prevent him from running into trouble. Fastball command in particular has been an issue for Smith-Shawver, and many of his home runs in the minors came on poorly located fastballs. MLB hitters will take advantage of that too if he can’t get it ironed out.
The bigger issue may be how long he remains in the rotation. He claimed the fifth spot for now, but Spencer Strider may be back in 3-4 weeks. Grant Holmes has also looked good this spring and has no minor league options, so the Braves can’t demote him when Strider is back. That makes Smith-Shawver the most likely candidate to go back to Triple-A or join the bullpen as a multi-inning guy. Now, Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale are not pictures of health and could get hurt before Strider returns, but you’re not likely to get a long runway with Smith-Shawver, and his first starts figure to be against the Padres, Marlins, Phillies, and Blue Jays. We would certainly love to have him for that Miami start, but I’m not sure I’d want him for the Padres and Phillies starts and then maybe see him lose his rotation spot when there are plenty of other intriguing undrafted arms still on waiver wires, like Roupp and Fitts.
Reese Olson – Detroit Tigers (Velocity increase)
Reese Olson is another pitcher who has featured increased velocity in spring training, sitting 95.3 mph on his four-seam fastball in his last start, which is up over one mph from last year.
That may not seem like a big deal, but the four-seam fastball was easily Olson’s worst pitch in 2024. It posted just a 4.6% SwStr% while allowing a nearly 40% ICR. It’s a relatively flat fastball, but didn’t have the velocity to succeed up in the strike zone, so Olson threw it low and middle a lot. A bump up to 95.3 mph and some added horizontal movement, as seen in the chart above, could help it be more successful in on the hands of righties or up in the zone. At the end of the day, we simply want Olson’s four-seamer to not be as bad as last year. It doesn’t even have to be good.
That’s because Olson has a really solid changeup, which has gotten even stronger this spring with added velocity and more arm-side run. It should be a real weapon against lefties, and then Olson has a plus slider that registered a 21.4% SwStr% and 15% ICR against righties in 2024. If his four-seam and sinker can simply set up the slider and changeup (and curve at times), then Olson should be in a good spot. However, we’re going to need to see him hold those velocity gains into the season as well.
Read the full article here
