We are under a week away from MLB’s Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and the Cubs and two weeks away from the domestic opening day, so fantasy baseball draft season is kicking into high gear. I’ve spent a lot of the off-season writing about my favorite starting pitcher targets and updating my top 180 starting pitcher rankings, but I felt that it was time to be specific about my strategy when it comes to drafting starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll talk you through HOW I approach drafting starting pitchers in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts and also WHY this is my approach. My hope is not just to give you some roadmap to copy but to have us think through the position together so that you can enter your drafts with a strategy for drafting starting pitchers that you feel confident in. If we’re just going into drafts and “winging it,” we’re already starting on the backfoot.
Starting Pitcher Landscape
A big part of my approach to starting pitching is in response to the general landscape. We have moved on from the days when there were a few clear-cut aces at the top of the rankings and then a slew of definitively worse pitchers. The consensus top two starting pitchers this season (Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes) are both young pitchers with limited MLB track records. Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler are both over 30 years old with potential workload concerns, Garrett Crochet has only one year as an MLB starting pitcher, Jacob deGrom has had a long history of injuries, and the list can go on and on.
The number of potential “safe” aces also diminished with the injuries to Gerrit Cole and George Kirby. I believe we’ve learned over the years that starting pitchers are either “risky” or “riskier,” and there is no such thing as a “safe” option. While we do need to factor injuries and risk into our draft plan, I am also comfortable accepting some level of risk with my starting pitchers and am more focused on drafting guys who are producing at strong levels when they’re on the mound. Even if that’s for 140 innings.
Aside from there being no clearly differentiated top tier, in my opinion, we have an even larger “glob” of pitchers who could be fantasy aces. In recent seasons, we have seen ace upside from Michael King, Chris Sale, Pablo Lopez, Logan Webb, and Shane McClanahan, to name a few, and that range of pitchers often falls outside of the top 100 overall picks.
As a result, my general approach to drafting pitching in a 12-team league (and this article will specifically focus on 12-team leagues) is to wait to draft starting pitching. I usually won’t take a starting pitcher in the first four rounds of a draft. Obviously, every draft room is slightly different, but my preference is to load up on five-category, reliable hitters in the first few rounds and then see how the pitching landscape falls. In some drafts, I haven’t taken my first starting pitcher until round seven.
Below, I’ll walk you through my basic strategy for how to approach starting pitching in each section of your draft and some of the pitchers I’m targeting in those sections.
Starting Pitching Draft Plan for Fantasy Baseball
ADP is taken from NFBC Online Championship Drafts (12-team leagues) from March 1st to March 12th (32 drafts)
Rounds 1-5 (Picks 1-60)
As I mentioned before, my preference is to draft one starting pitcher in the first five rounds as my “ace.” That has most often been Michael King (ADP: 60) because his ADP is too low, in my opinion. I have King as my 9th-ranked starting pitcher, and I don’t believe we’re giving enough credence to the fact that he posted a 2.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 27.6% strikeout rate in his final 29 starts of the season. I’m expecting 180 innings of goodness.
If I did want to jump in on starting pitching earlier, which I haven’t yet, I believe Corbin Burnes (ADP: 39) is being undervalued. Perhaps people aren’t realizing that Burnes struggled with his trademark cutter for much of the 2024 season but found that cutter in late August and returned to the version of Burnes that we’re used to seeing. I have him as my SP5 and will take him in the fourth round if he falls that far, which he has in some drafts. I would also be excited to draft Cole Ragans (ADP: 40) if he falls in drafts since he’s my SP8, one spot ahead of King.
I should also note that in drafts with IL spots, I’m also happy to take Jacob deGrom (ADP: 44) as my ace. Last year, he looked like the same elite pitcher we’re used to seeing, and he made some important comments this spring training about how he has learned that he can be successful sitting at 97mph and doesn’t need to try to push 100mph like he used to. We have plenty of data that suggests that pitching injuries come from pitchers sitting close to their max velocity too often, so deGrom, with a surgically repaired arm and a more measured approach, is something I love. Remember that he was the SP1 OVERALL in fantasy in a year when he only threw 90 innings, so if you get 120+ innings from him, you’re going to be ecstatic.
Rounds 6-10 (Picks 61-120)
If I come out of the first five rounds with one starting pitcher that I really like, then I’m generally just taking one starting pitcher here as well. That starting pitcher will likely come in round 9 or later as I continue to add hitting and draft my first closer. However, I like a lot of pitchers on the verge of this ADP range (as you’ll see in a bit), so if the draft room I’m in is pushing up starting pitching up, then I may double-tap with back-to-back starters towards the end of this range.
I have Max Fried (ADP: 90) inside my top 15 overall starters after the injuries to Cole and Kirby, so I love getting him at this cost. In his last four seasons, he has never posted an ERA higher than 3.25 or a WHIP higher than 1.16. His move to Yankee Stadium isn’t much of a downgrade from Truist Park, so I think Fried can continue to be a solid source of ratios and wins on the Yankees and is going far too late in drafts. I also have Joe Ryan (ADP: 92) just a few spots behind him as my SP17, so I am thrilled with him as my SP2. If he can lock one of his evolving secondaries as a dependable offering to pair with his great fastball, then Ryan is a top-15 starter in fantasy baseball.
While there are no “safe” starters in fantasy baseball, I do think there are starters who have proven to be dependable, and both Tanner Bibee (ADP: 99) and Logan Webb (ADP: 103) fit that bill. Neither one is extraordinary, but they will give you a lot of innings on solid teams, and they have never really been bad at the MLB level. I also spoke to Bibee this off-season about his pitch mix changes and pitching through an injury last year, so I’m higher on him than I was before that.
If I’m waiting and leaning into risk, then I have no problem drafting Shane McClanahan (ADP: 115) this season. I believe Sugar Shane was a top 10 starter in baseball before his injury, and he’s now over 17 months removed from surgery and has looked like himself this spring. The estimate from Rays beat writers is that we could see 150 innings from McClanahan, and even if he’s not as crisp as he was pre-surgery, I’ll take his upside at this price.
However, my most-rostered SP2 is Justin Steele (ADP: 120). I have Steele as my SP20 after the injuries to Kirby and Cole, and nobody else seems to want to draft him. Last year, Steele got hurt on Opening Day and then struggled to get back into rhythm when he returned, as is typical for pitchers after a lengthy absence. However, from May 27th to the end of the season, he posted a 2.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 112/31 K/BB ratio in 109.1 innings. That’s pretty elite production, and since the injury was just a hamstring injury, it shouldn’t leave us worried about his health in 2025. If I focus on getting high-strikeout-rate arms around him, I love having Steele on my team.
Rounds 11-15 (Picks 121-180)
As I mentioned above, I mostly enter this range with two starting pitchers, but I could enter with three if the room is pushing up starting pitchers. Either way, I usually draft two starters in this range; however, I’m comfortable only taking one because I like the next grouping as well. The basic idea is that, in a 12-team league, I’m leaving this section of the draft with at least four starters but rarely more than five starters. I am super comfortable filling out the rest of my rotation with later-round picks.
If I feel like I need somebody dependable, then I like taking Sonny Gray (ADP: 123) in this range. I think we can all agree that last year’s production was probably a mirage, but he has always been a reliable starter with a deep arsenal of pitches. That’s a valuable asset in this range.
If I’m feeling good about my staff and want to focus more on upside, then my highest-ranked pitcher here is Jared Jones (ADP: 137), who I have as my SP32. This spring, Jones’ changeup has taken a clear step forward, and he’s added in a new sinker, which is an important wrinkle for him to address an issue where his four-seam fastball seemed to decline in velocity as his starts when on. Jones flashed top-20 upside last year, and I think we will see another good year from him in 2025.
I also have Robbie Ray (ADP: 148) and Bryan Woo (ADP: 128) ranked right behind him as my SP34 and SP36, respectively. Ray came back from Tommy John last year and looked elite in some starts and then rusty in others. His fastball velocity returned to the levels we wanted to see, but he struggled to control his breaking balls. Since we know command is the last thing to come back after Tommy John, Ray should take a step forward in 2025, and I think he’s being underdrafted. I also believe that Woo is a top-20 starter in baseball based on his raw talent. He has modified his pitch mix to remove his splits issue, and we saw tremendous growth from his changeup last year. If I trusted his elbow, then I’d take him in the top 10 rounds, so if he falls far enough, then I’m happy to jump in on him.
Another pitcher I like who is coming off of an injury is Kodai Senga (ADP: 153), who I have as SP41. Like Woo, he flashed top-20 upside when healthy in 2023, especially after he added in a cutter to take the pressure off his four-seam fastball and get ahead to set up his Ghost Fork. He has also added a sinker now, and I love how he’s evolving as a pitcher. He’s going one spot ahead of Cristopher Sanchez (ADP: 154), who has been flying up draft boards after coming into spring training with increased velocity and a new cutter. Those changes should lead to more strikeouts for Sanchez, which will increase his value, but I’m not trying to overpy too much for a few spring innings.
The last pitcher in this tier I like is Ryan Pepiot (ADP: 170), who is my SP46, behind Sanchez, who is my SP44. We wanted Pepiot to throw more high fastballs when he was with the Dodgers, and lo and behold, he went to Tampa Bay, did that, and had real success. Pepiot has a strong slider and changeup pairing to go with that elite four-seamer, so the pieces are there for him to be a real difference-maker for your fantasy rotation. I know people are worried about Tampa Bay playing in a minor league park outside in Florida, but we can only drop Pepiot so far due to a stadium we have never seen him pitch in.
Rounds 16-20 (Picks 181-240)
OK, so at this point, I have four or five starters, and I’m just trying to fill out the end of my rotation. That will normally mean I’m drafting two starters from this range because plenty of high-upside arms fall here. Unlike in 15-team leagues, I’m not looking for “safe” pitchers to be my SP5 or SP6. I expect that I’m going to churn the final spots of my rotation during the year, so I want to focus on drafting pitchers who have clear starting jobs and the upside to be elite producers for me if things break right. If things don’t break right and I have to drop a player I picked at 203, I’m not really worried about it too much.
For me, the pitcher I’m most excited about in this range is Gavin Williams (ADP: 197), who I have as my SP43. I’ve written about him extensively this off-season and even talked to him in Arizona about his recovery last season and the changes he’s making to his mechanics. I have him on basically all of my teams.
I have three other pitchers in the same range as Williams in my ranks. That tier is called “Breakout Potential With Risk,” and so those are clearly the type of arms I’m looking to get here. The three pitchers who fall into that tier for me are Shane Baz (ADP: 189), who is my SP47, Spencer Arrighetti (ADP: 195), who is my SP48, and Clarke Schmidt (ADP: 239), who is my SP49. You can obviously wait the longest to draft Schmidt, most likely because his spring training was delayed and he’s only made one start, but I love the way all three of these pitchers adjusted their arsenals and approaches last year to adapt to MLB hitters. They are all relatively young, and I think there is another level of growth for each of them.
In the tier below those guys, I have a tier of veterans who are coming off injuries but have demonstrated fringe-ace upside in the past. That tier includes Yu Darvish (ADP: 224), who is my SP50, and Jesus Luzardo (ADP: 216), who is my SP51. Luzardo has had a massive team context upgrade by moving to the Phillies and has shown good velocity and great movement on his changeup this spring. Meanwhile, Darvish had a better year than people remember last year, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts. He did go on the restricted list with a personal issue that kept him away from the team, but that was not injury-related. He had a stint on the IL with a neck injury, and if you take out the two starts he made in May before he went on the IL, where we now know that he was pitching through that neck injury, then Darvosh allowed 21 earned runs in 76 innings, which is a 2.47 ERA with 71 strikeouts. That’s a solid stretch of production. I think we’re writing him off as being “done” or “washed” too quickly.
My tier after that includes Clay Holmes (ADP: 211), who is my SP55, Walker Buehler (ADP: 221), who is my SP57, and Zach Eflin (ADP: 193), who is my SP60. We all know that Holmes has looked tremendous as a starter this spring with two new pitches and a confirmed spot in the Mets rotation. This is the point in the draft where you gamble that what we’re seeing is real. We also have Walker Buehler pitching for a new contract on a one-year deal in Boston. He has looked good in his first two outings, and I expect Boston to lean into his cutter and sweeper more, since that’s what they do, and take some of the emphasis off of his four-seam fastball, which is good.
That leaves Eflin, who is pretty boring but also pretty solid, and I guess now the ace in Baltimore. He seemed to find his curve after being traded from Tampa Bay last year and posted a 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 47/11 K/BB ratio in 55.1 innings in Baltimore. I don’t think he’ll be quite that good in 2025, but I think he’s probably a 3.50 ERA arm with a plus WHIP who won’t get a lot of strikeouts but will pitch deep into games for a good team. That’s solid in all league types.
I’ll just end by saying that, if you’re in a league with a lot of IL spots, I don’t mind taking Brandon Woodruff (ADP: 240) here. He has started throwing live batting practice, but we still don’t know when he’ll be back. We just know that he has been an elite pitcher when healthy, so he’s a fine IL-stash to begin your season.
Rounds 21-27 (Picks 241-324)
We have now reached the final rounds of your draft, and I would normally have at least six starters. That means I feel good about where I’m at with my primary starters and I’m just looking for guys to add to my bench. In a 12-team league that strictly means high-upside fliers who could be difference-makers if they hit. This is not a 15-team league, so there are always going to be starting pitchers on the waiver wire. I don’t want to use my late-round picks in a 12-team league to draft a guy like Luis Severino or Jameson Taillon, who will likely be fine this year but don’t have the upside to be a real difference-maker. Those guys are ALWAYS on the wire in 12-team leagues.
I outlined my detailed philosophy for late-round starting pitchers in this article, so I’d encourage you to check that out, but I want players who I can decide on after one or two regular season starts. I don’t want to have this guy floundering in purgatory on my bench while I decide if he’s good or not. I want a guy who I can make a breakout case for, and then I want to see if he looks anything like that type of pitcher in his first start or two so I can hold onto him or drop him for whoever has looked good in the first couple of weeks. I held onto guys like DL Hall too long last year and missed out on Jack Flaherty and Garrett Crochet on waivers.
There will be too many names to go into detail on each one, but I’ll just say that my highest-ranked starting pitchers in this range are Jeffrey Springs (ADP: 255), who looked solid after injury last year and is my SP55 and is locked into a rotation spot with the A’s. Reese Olson (ADP: 247), who is my SP62 and has come into camp with added velocity, and Grant Holmes (ADP: 262), who is my SP66, is the fourth starter in Atlanta and added a kick-change to go with his two plus breaking balls. I think he is a little more exciting than people give him credit for.
I don’t believe Bubba Chandler (ADP: 288), who is my SP68, will break camp with the Pirates, but he’s going to be good this season and will get enough MLB innings if you can stash him on your bench. My lone “boring” veteran in here is Max Scherzer (ADP: 250), who is my SP70 and looks good this spring. He may not pitch a full season, but he is healthy now and is on a decent team and could give you 100+ really strong innings at the start of the season before you have to worry about injuries or anything.
I also really like what we’ve seen this spring from Max Meyer (ADP: 318), who is my SP78, and Jack Leiter (AD: 356), who I moved up to SP79 after the news that Tyler Mahle is dealing with forearm tightness. I think Leiter should open the season in the rotation, and I covered both of these guys in my article on starting pitchers who are going “undrafted” in 12-team leagues that I think have top-25 upside.
I also know we’re not going to get a full season from Dustin May (ADP: 324), but he’s in the Dodgers’ rotation now and could be great for you for the first couple of months of the season. Who knows, maybe this is the year he stays healthy and truly breaks out? Similarly, Will Warren (ADP: 335), has looked really good this spring and might be in the Yankees’ rotation with the injuries to Cole and Luis Gil. I will say I have a feeling the Yankees will start the season with Carlos Carrasco in the rotation because they have, quite literally, no other starting pitching depth, and if they don’t start with Carrasco on the MLB roster, they have to cut him. The Yankees may opt to keep Warren in Triple-A for a few starts just to see if Carrasco can give them anything.
I have a small tier of late-round starting pitchers who could all make a significant leap this season, and that includes Jose Soriano (ADP: 304), who is my SP87 and I’ve written about a bunch, Kris Bubic (ADP: 310), who is my SP88 and the fifth starter in Kansas City, Reid Detmers (ADP: 347), who is my SP89 and getting another shot in Los Angeles and Ryan Weathers (ADP: 308), who is my SP90 and looks stronger and more dynamic this spring than he did last year. I also believe this will be a breakout season for Brayan Bello (ADP: 350), and I’m happy to draft him and put him on my IL to start the year since he is only going to miss one or two starts to begin the season.
To round out this group, I would normally be happy to draft Lucas Giolito (ADP: 326), but he hurt his hamstring on Tuesday, so we need to monitor that, and I think Landen Roupp (ADP: 360) could really breakout if he gets the fifth starter spot in San Francisco. David Peterson (ADP: 316) is in the Mets rotation and has the swing-and-miss stuff we like from late-round picks and both Cade Povich (ADP: 353) and Zebby Matthews (ADP: 354) have strong minor league track records and legitimate upside if they get a chance to crack their MLB rotations; although that seems unlikely to start the season.
Whichever way you slice it, there are so many ways to attack starting pitching in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts, so don’t feel pressure to jump in early and have some fun leaning into upside as your draft nears the end.
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