The long and winding road that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs continues. Edmonton pounced on counterattacks to easily defeat Dallas 6-1 in Game 3. Dallas generated a lot of shots as Stuart Skinner stood on his head during the second period. Can the Stars counter the counter?
Game 4 faces a few considerable questions from the injury front.
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Edmonton, Dallas, And The Goaltending
Stuart Skinner has outperformed Jake Oettinger in this Western Conference Final. Oettinger has allowed 12 goals on 76 shots (.842 save percentage) while Stuart has yielded six goals on 86 shots (.930 save percentage). Oettinger and Dallas have not looked the greatest defensively. Even when the Stars yield fewer shots, the opportunities have been of a higher caliber.
Dallas’s stubbornness in adhering to this 11-7 alignment that Peter DeBoer keeps using is causing problems. So, while the Stars had an incredible second period in Game 3, Dallas only managed one puck past Stuart Skinner. That 2.24 goals expected was one of the highest of these playoffs. There was a quirk and a catch.
Now, Dallas could not manage any odd-man rushes through 55 minutes of action. The fact that Edmonton had nine speaks volumes to their ability to accelerate. Bettors had to be happy with Skinner making so many saves while Oettinger continues not to. It has led to some nice situations with live betting and save props.
Can this trend continue in Game 4? The problem is that no one is sure about Edmonton. One trademark of Florida and Edmonton is that nothing comes easy, even when a bettor or fan expects it to.
Okay, maybe Edmonton has traumatized Oettinger like the Oilers did last year, but the series is far from over.
The expectation is that the fear of a twist is real here. A huge dilemma presents itself with the save numbers. Our wagers here roll with what has proven profitable.
NHL Betting Pick: Stuart Skinner over 23.5 saves (-105 via DraftKings) and Jake Oettinger under 27.5 saves (-125 via DraftKings).
Series Swinging with the Stars vs. Oilers
Here is our update before Game 4 of this series for Tuesday:
- Edmonton was a -120 favorite to win the series, while Dallas was around EVEN for Game 1
- Game 2 saw Dallas as a -190 favorite to advance, and Edmonton is a +160 underdog.
- Game 3 had Edmonton at -150 while Dallas is the +130 underdog.
- Game 4 now has Edmonton at -330 (as high as -370) and Dallas a considerable +270 underdog (some range up to +290).
Dallas and Edmonton keep lurking as a series that still has the potential to go longer. Carolina and Florida will have a Game 5 as Florida finally had their game where they bumbled around. Can the Oilers go up 3-1 and make the best-of-seven a little easier?
The rationale is that the Oilers did win four straight games against Los Angeles, even if it took some dramatics. Edmonton had one lapse against Vegas but took care of business in five games. Yes, the Oilers have found some intriguing paths to victory. Numbers are off-line for series props like whether Edmonton will score 20+ goals in this series, but other options exist.
Edmonton’s depth keeps increasing, and even if Mattias Ekholm is still out, the Oilers are simply less fatigued. If Stuart Skinner can make the saves, Edmonton is well on its way to covering the series spread of 1.5 games, now -155 via Caesars. It may be the conservative play in case Dallas manages an unexpected win.
Series Market Prop: Edmonton Oilers -1.5 games for series (-155 via Caesars).
I Did Not Hear No Bell
Hey, we did not hear a bell. Will Edmonton be disciplined enough to keep employing this counterpunching style? This is not controversial, but taking the GIFT (Goal In First Ten) is our final wager for Tuesday. It is a risk because this has only happened once in this series. However, the feeling is that chances will be more plentiful.
A Final Bell Wager: Goal In First Ten (-168 via FanDuel).
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